[rockdoc123]

I've been hanging around this forum for a wee bit and what strikes me is that there are a lot of folks here who are sitting on the edge of their chair waiting for some key signal to tell them to run out and buy a bunch of bottled water, a shotgun, canned food, barbed wire etc.

Truth is none of us (and I use the universal us) have a frigging clue as to exactly when Peak Oil will happen nor how the decline will look. We can model the piss out of it but I absolutely guarantee you that none of the industry experts here will stand up and say "this is it baby...there is no other truth". Yes you can take the "chicken little" approach and every day there is something that kind of looks like it might fit into the pattern of demise you run off and do something particularily nutty because you think in the long term it will work for you...but my friends, there in lies personal dissaster. Read the news but please realize it is not the truth.

Please, folks....don't get torqued off so much on little news....My opinion for what it's worth is that we are going to see a long slow collapse from our (your) current lifestyle and I have to emphasize that there is absolutely no proof whatsoever that the global peak has been reached...it is conjecture. If you can grasp that small reality and take it upon yourself to sort out a few things in your own life as to how you consume with respect to hydrocarbon products then that is positive. Basically as far as I'm concerned we absolutely do not need more than we had in the fifties and sixties...we were incredibly happy...we never actually thought we needed more. Unfortunately we on mass seemed to have had a brain cloud that screwed up our thinking processes.....we need more...well thats not good enough....more would be better.
Damn...my appologies to the younger generation....please learn from our mistakes.
My view and the doomers can hate me for it is.....this is fixable ...it requires however that we all realize first there is a problem and second we can offer solutions, albeit there being consequences.
And as long as I am pontificating...to you doomers who just love to say...."it's all bad and it will all be like in Road Warrior" , chances are it will be with folks like you around...please do the rest of us a favor and when the shit actually does hit the fan ( which might not be in our time) you will take the honorable solution and commit sepuku.
Sorry for abusing the e-space but I had to get this off my chest, and I actually feel better...although that might have something to do with the Bowmore.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'c')ommit sepuku

[rockdoc123]

Well energyspin I actually don't hope anyone here goes out and does the honerable thing based on my or your suggestion.
But I definitely believe if you don't want to be part of the solution then frig off cause I do not want to have to deal with you as part as the "percipatation

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'A')nd as long as I am pontificating...to you doomers who just love to say...."it's all bad and it will all be like in Road Warrior" , chances are it will be with folks like you around...please do the rest of us a favor and when the shit actually does hit the fan ( which might not be in our time) you will take the honorable solution and commit sepuku.

[EnergySpin]

Jack this is one cool avatar.
Rockdock .. do not worry no-one will do the "honest" thing. There are too many people who want to see how it plays out.
Seppuku died with the Samurais

[Specop_007]

Just for the record here.

I think your probably a good guy. And in normal times I'd lift a cold frothy mug beside you.
But when the manure hits the ventalition system, know this.
When your "It'll be ok" unprepared ass comes wandering around looking for a free handout at my house I will not think twice to add your body to the garden for fertilizer.

Theres wanting bad things to happen, and theres being prepared for them. Just because I prepare for them doesnt mean I want them.
And anyone else who doesnt prepare a bit is a damned fool.

But, its people who dont prepare that make sure I get a good laugh as I get to watch every year people stand in line for water and food because a hurricane came through Florida.

Goddamn happy go lucky irresponsible inmature people PISS ME OFF.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen your "It'll be ok" unprepared ass comes wandering around looking for a free handout at my house I will not think twice to add your body to the garden for fertilizer.

[Blech]

Excellent post, thank you for that.

[dunewalker]

Who cares when Peak Oil is?! When TSHTF is when supply runs short of demand, which may verily occur even as oil production is still increasing. In fact, according to available information, that is where the world is as we speak. Once oil prices inflate sufficiently, the age of cheap oil is officially over...

[smiley]

Good post Rockdoc. What I'm concerned about is the way people view this. There seems to be absolutely middle ground in this debate.

On the one hand you have the Montequests (no offence) who think that the great apocalypse is upon us. That peakoil, global warming, breast cancer, super flu, and every imaginable threat to humankind will unite and wipe a large portion of our species of our planet.

On the other side you have the Oilwatches, Morrisons and Hydro's, who think that at the moment PO strikes we will pull some kind of cold nuclear fusion out of our arse and everything will be just fine.

Then you have the occasional loony like Specop (again, no offence) who thinks that every problem should be shot. But he really is in a category of his own.

As I look at the public debate over oil heating up, in the public media, in our canteen, in our family, I see the same polarisation. So I imagine that when it is finally confirmed we will have three kind of people.

- Those who head for the hills because they think the problem is unsolvable
- Those who think that the best way to solve the problem is to do nothing.
- Those who don't give a f*ck because they are mentally incapable of having an opinion.

When one part of the country is sitting in their barbed-wire bunker guarding their sweet potatoes, one part driving their bulletproof Beemer from one corporate orgy to another and another part sitting where they have always been (on their couch watching Oprah), who will watch the shop? Who will have the vision and the guts to address the problems which lie in front of us before they grow to unfixable proportions?

PO is as you said a very slow event we won't suddenly run out of fertiliser. However the future is not shaped by geophysics, but by the reaction (or absence of reaction) of the people to it. I do believe that most of the problems are fixable, but I also believe that those problems could have pretty nasty effects, sooner than we think, if we don't act.

[Grasshopper]

Rockdoc, very good post, most people in the oil industry work at extrapolating from the data they have, to try to reach a conclusion about reserves, production rates, and so on. They are very aware that reservoir simulations are approximations, that seismic data can sometimes be misleading, and that dry holes are inevitable if those 'possible reserves' will ever be actual reserves. "Reserve growth" is partly a result of advances in technology, and partly that initial estimates of reserves are generally conservative so that future embarrasment is avoided.
Factoring reserve growth beyond what is reported, and anything but the most conservative possible reserves estimates into estimates of future supply is dangerous, because there are limits, geologically, technologically, and economically.
Just as ARAMCO in their presentation about '50 year oil supply' that I found on a link somewhere here may sound overly optimistic to some, so may Twilight in the Desert appear to be crying wolf to others. I think Simmons must have read that report by ARAMCO, because it was published in 2004, he figures they are trying to whitewash the situation. Me, I don't see why they should be lying now - what's there to lose?, or are they just incompetent? even Simmons says ARAMCO has world-class professionals.
I am sure that the peak in production will not be recognised until we are at least a couple of years past it (of course, some prognosticators will be right about when, and maybe at how much, but ... who?). High crude price and gasoline/diesel/heating oil/natural gas prices are here already, and consumers should start dealing with it now to reduce their costs, because in the long run, it isn't going to get cheaper.
Maintain an incentive for exploring for oil (and alternatives, including conservation) by keeping the price of oil high; the $10/bbl oil of 1998 was more of an anomaly than $66/bbl now - peakoilers know it's worth a lot more.
I think advocating that our governments prepare by investing in or encouraging investment in more energy-efficient transport (i.e. rail) developing alternate energy sources (especially renewable), and energy efficient housing is a more effective way to ensure personal and family survival than buying guns, ammo and stacks of rations (though it wouldn't hurt to have the capacity to bug out).

An interesting link regarding happiness, Energyspin, I have often thought that including The Pursuit of Happiness in the US constitution was inspired.
It was nice to read that although income and happiness correlated well, that happiness also correlated with political freedom and stable, fair government. The direct government correlation was very interesting. Good health, a loving family, a well-paying job, a sense of purpose - the only way I could be happier is if I could run the show.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Grasshopper', '
')An interesting link regarding happiness, Energyspin, I have often thought that including The Pursuit of Happiness in the US constitution was inspired.
It was nice to read that although income and happiness correlated well, that happiness also correlated with political freedom and stable, fair government. The direct government correlation was very interesting. Good health, a loving family, a well-paying job, a sense of purpose - the only way I could be happier is if I could run the show.

[bruss01]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'I')'ve been hanging around this forum for a wee bit and what strikes me is that there are a lot of folks here who are sitting on the edge of their chair waiting for some key signal to tell them to run out and buy a bunch of bottled water, a shotgun, canned food, barbed wire etc.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', ' ')Truth is none of us (and I use the universal us) have a frigging clue as to exactly when Peak Oil will happen nor how the decline will look.

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'w')ater, a shotgun, canned food, barbed wire etc.

Truth is none of us (and I use the universal us) have a frigging clue as to exactly when Peak Oil will happen nor how the decline will look..

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', ' ')Truth is none of us (and I use the universal us) have a frigging clue as to exactly when Peak Oil will happen nor how the decline will look.

[bruss01]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'A')s far as the gunners go, if a person doesn’t worry about a crackhead kicking their door down today, I can’t see getting all worked up regarding wild-eyed soccer moms in some version of the future.

[PhebaAndThePilgrim]

Good day From Pheba from the Farm:
What an interesting post. What I can't figure out is where your hostility is coming from.
You seem to have labled us all a bunch of nutcases. Personally, I just think that you don't get the bigger picture.
I see the picture from agriculture. Believe me, it is serious.

I recently read a book concerning autism and the preservative thimerosol in vaccines. A parent of an autistic child approached a drug company rep. and said pretty much the following:

Sir, he said, if I am wrong, then I will publically apologize in front of thousands of people. But, sir, if you are wrong, you are going to hell.

When I read that statement I connected it to the similar feeling with the PO issue.
I hope I am so wrong about this issue. If I am I will apologize to my dying day. But, if I am right, I will not wish anybody to hell, and I will not say I told you so.

Not very long ago, people had a very different attitude towards life. People saved money, lived frugally, and prepared for a rainy day.
Most people who research the PO issue do not quit their jobs, buy a farm, and stock up on years of food.

But, that being said, a little common sense goes a long way.
Reducing energy consumption, saving money and clearing debt never hurt anybody. The entire mess would be a lot better if more people did think like the PO folks.

Personally, I am doing the following in preparation for what my research has told me is coming.
Hubby and I have ceased using any petrochemicals on our farm (1991 last year)
We have downsized, and are utilizing every method we can think of to reduce energy cost to raise livestock.
We raise as much of our own food as possible.
We are very careful about our money.
We are working very hard to clear our debt.
We are planning on selling my car to purchase one that is safe to drive, but gets great mileage.
Okay, what if there was not a peak oil issue?
The steps we are taking with our lives are still working. They still make sense. They are sane, and we find that we are happier people because of it.
Oh, and I am going to be teaching a class on petroleum to educate others. Will I turn the class into a doom and gloom session?
No, I won't.
Will I state that peak oil is a fact?
No, I won't
My goal is to relate basic information on energy and oil. Then let people make up their own mind.
Gee, I wonder what would happen if everybody who gave a damn just committed suicide.
The rest of the world could just continue to go shopping.
Pheba

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bruss01', ' ')Once darwinism has thinned the herd to only the most ruthless and cunning....

[doufus]

There is v. little middle road on this site.

I agree that most households should have some preps for
natural and other disasters. i.e food, fuel, lighting, comms etc. Historically
this has always been the case. I also agree that people without such
basic provisions should be criticised since they are failing a civic
responsibility and place greater demands on their neighbours than
necessary. Hurricanes, floods, severe weather, chemical accidents
etc do happen. Why rely on the supermarket as your only resource?
People carry spare tyres and insurance, yet think nothing about
continuity of the basics in an emergency.

HOWEVER, what really IRKS me about this site is the number of people
who have a smug "bring it on" attitude as if they are somehow part
of the "fit" side of a large "survival of the fittest" process.

Many of these are lard asses with folding guts who could barely run a
mile with a rifle and would drink all their water in the first 5 miles.
So much for the fit side of the equation.

Equally, few of these pizza swallowers have any idea of the world
they're wishing for.

Don't ever watch anyone die from tetanus.

A world of surgery without anaesthesia or sedation is not for me.

Appendicitis will kill you.

A scratch, a dental abcess, any wound can kill without antibiotics.

Pregnancy becomes the major health risk to mother n child it always was.

Passing a kidney stone without morphine is very pleasant.

I hope you never fall and break a limb. Maybe you'll be able to use it again.

Dentistry is called a pair of pliers.

Stitching without numbing the skin is worth looking forward to.

Simple things we take for granted disappear in these scenarios.
yes people once lived like this, BUT NOT BY CHOICE. The good old
days may have been slower, more meaningful, less env. destructive,
but they were a shit load harder. Are you tough enough?

Tough is not putting 200 rounds thru an M-16 after a dozen beers have
swelled that rolling gut. Tough is watching most of your kids under 5
die of simple fevers, infections and dysentery. Tough is watching your
crop die and then watching your family starve.

Oh i forgot you're all loner survivalists picking off the zombies after
your MREs. Well, after you fall asleep after 48 hrs of no sleep, they'll
just walk up, stick your M-16 up your arse and pull the trigger.

More likely your "lair" will be littered with old MRE containers and a
rat will bite your fat arse at night and you'll die of simple blood
poisoning.

Gimme a break. Be careful about what u wish for. You really don't
want this. I suggest you work like the rest of us to prepare for
"normal" emergencies and help prevent these sorts of ridiculous
scenarios from ever becoming real.

Rest assured, you will become a victim too no matter how much
you think your fat arse will survive.