[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', 'S')orry guys, I think doomerism is doomed.

1. If the Peak Oil don't get you, then Global Warming will.

2. Even with the die-off scenario, there will be wars, depressions, diseases... no one will be immune, no one can hide.

3. Politically, doomerism is insane. For quite a while, central governments will have access to fossil fuels and power, with the potential for good or evil.

4. Morally, doomerism is the pits. So, you will stand by and let hundreds of millions die, without lifting a finger? How will you be judged by history?

5. The complete lack of historical consciousness is amazing. In previous eras, nations were quite able to deal with severe cutbacks in resources. In our own era, Cuba is an outstanding example -- whether you agree with its politics or not. Many nations in WW2 endured severe cutbacks. The key is whether a society can muster the co-operative spirit to deal with challenges. Physical resources are secondary.

I guess this is where I part company with the peakoil.com folks. I'm sorry to see most of you go down this path, but good luck anyway.

My best,
Bart

[Dukat_Reloaded]

1. If the Peak Oil don't get you, then Global Warming will.

It may get you (unprepared), it won't get me.(prepared) Add ignorant in too.

2. Even with the die-off scenario, there will be wars, depressions, diseases... no one will be immune, no one can hide.

If your strong, you have a better chance to surive, if your weak you'll perish. Add ignorant in too.

3. Politically, doomerism is insane. For quite a while, central governments will have access to fossil fuels and power, with the potential for good or evil.

If there is a government. I tell you, I won't be part of the army or police force if the money I'm paid is worthless and I can't buy nothing with it.

4. Morally, doomerism is the pits. So, you will stand by and let hundreds of millions die, without lifting a finger? How will you be judged by history?

Did Jesus care what history thought of him?

I would only lift my middle finger at them. They had the chance to listen and they said nay, everything is fine and continued on causing the problem making it worse. It's like you go on a walk with 10 people into the desert, you fill up your water bottle and you recommend that they do to, they say nay, we won't need it, you insist that they do but they don't listen. Afew hours later they want a drink of your water but you have to refuse because you only have enough for yourself and you point out to them that they had a chance to fill up to. You can not help people like this and if I could I would not want to.

5. The complete lack of historical consciousness is amazing. In previous eras, nations were quite able to deal with severe cutbacks in resources. In our own era, Cuba is an outstanding example -- whether you agree with its politics or not. Many nations in WW2 endured severe cutbacks. The key is whether a society can muster the co-operative spirit to deal with challenges. Physical resources are secondary.

As you have heard from the optimists here, they would rather die than give up their luxuries and status quo produced from oil. I think you would rather die too bart, you have disconnected yourself from reality and entered fantasy.


I guess this is where I part company with the peakoil.com folks. I'm sorry to see most of you go down this path, but good luck anyway.

See you at dieoff day Bart. (He sounds like he's off to buy a SUV) hahaha

Far out Bart, you sound as if you were walking through the dead of night in the woods and now you've found the light that has saved you and brought salvation. This coal into oil rubbish is gaining too much montentum, it is really deluding these optimists.

My best,
Bart

Your best?.......or your dumbest?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dukat', 'G')reat post

[gg3]

Interestingly, we have Bart and folks of similar orientation making reasoned arguements, and then we have others attacking him with ad-hominems and put-downs. This says something about the validity of the various positions represented.

I'm no fan of state socialism, but empirically the fact remains that Cuba made it without a die-off. One empirical example is worth a heck of a lot more than a bunch of bluster. Whether we learn from the example remains to be seen.

As for water bottles in the desert, the third option is to fill up a ten-gallon tank and then when the other nine people start whining about lack of water, tell them, "OK, you'll have water. But first you have to concede that your lack of preparation would have killed you, and you have to start thinking for yourself in the future."

The petty-minded person with the tank would demand the unprepared others turn themselves into slaves or otherwise pay dearly, and thereby gain the instability of the other nine's resentments. The truly intelligent person with the tank will instead turn it into a learning experience aimed toward bettering the others, and thereby gain allies.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', '
')I'm no fan of state socialism, but empirically the fact remains that Cuba made it without a die-off.

[jato]

Using the CIA factbook I calculated the following:

Cuba 11.3 million people using 163k barrels of oil per day. 69 people per barrel. Which is better than the world average per capita (global per capita @84 mbd it is 76.7 people per barrel)

USA 300 million people using 20m barrels per day. 15 people per barrel


To be equivilant to CUBA's per capita oil use, the USA would use 4.32 million barrels of oil per day.



What is the USA's current domestic production of oil?

[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', '
')I'm no fan of state socialism, but empirically the fact remains that Cuba made it without a die-off.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', 'W')hat is the USA's current domestic production of oil?

[Raxozanne]

Cuba only made it through because they powerdowned and relocalised agriculture. I don't see the UK government going, 'right everyone out to the fields, now lets breed some oxen for ya'. Somehow I think the capitilist pigs will force the government to keep the dying system stumbling along until it falls over completely.

[Colorado-Valley]

There are 6.7 billion people in the world. The population increases by 90 million people a year, equivalent to another Mexico each year. China alone is adding 10,000 new cars a day. India is right behind them. Matthew Simmons says oil could easily reach $300 a barrel this winter if production can't meet demand.

Bart will have no chance to build sustainable communities for the 21st century unless something is done about this huge population overreach. It's not a question of ethics, conservation or community. Those were questions that needed to be addressed 30 years ago.

What will the U.S. government do? What it's been doing for the past four years. Loot everything that's not nailed down.

[bart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MQ', 'C')an you make the case that Cuba had absolutely no access to fossil fuel made materials or technology from outside it's country? I think not.

Cuba is a very good example of dealing with an embargo, but not peak oil.

[gg3]

Okay, Monte et. al., we're doomed at the macro scale, and no turning back.

In that case our efforts should be directed toward a) the usual grassroots civic action including broadcast propaganda, oriented toward encouraging whatever policies (including birth control etc.) could potentially reduce the intensity of the crash, and b) building sustainable community infrastructure and social structures on the local scale wherever we happen to live, and c) for those of us who live in truly untenable locations such as the Arizona desert, Nevada, and so on, moving to more viable regions immediately.

Oh, and for some people, becoming MZBs so they can rape & pillage & loot, and get arrested or shot by those of us who are settled & sustainable.

Who's in...?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MQ', 'C')an you make the case that Cuba had absolutely no access to fossil fuel made materials or technology from outside it's country? I think not.

Cuba is a very good example of dealing with an embargo, but not peak oil.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', '
')It's not that Cuba is a utopia by any means, but it was able to make the transition to a low-energy society without a die-off, civil war or social breakdown.

[bart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MQ', '.')..I believe a decline in the standard of living is going to be the "material die-off" of the more developed nations, not a physical die-off, per se.

[Colorado-Valley]

Bart,

One thing I've done here in the valley for the last 10 years is to drink coffee with the good ol' boys down at the cafe every morning. We have bonded in a pretty good way, even though I'm still basically a Boulder granola guy.

However, the community of permaculture, organic environmentalist New Agers who live here have avoided these people like the plague, and have really, really irritated them by moving in and immediately demanding the ranchers remove their cows from the mountain pastures, stop spraying mosquitos, start doing land-use planning, etc., etc. in a very confrontive way. They are completely despised because of this.

On the other hand, I'm part of the community now even though my views about things are almost diametrically opposed to the good ol' boys. But I can harass them about their redneck ways and attitudes because we're all friends now, and we help each other out. And as an added benefit, many of these guys still remember how to use draft horses and live very conservatively off the land, since that's how they grew up.

My feeling is that when things start to get difficult around here, I'd rather be part of the community than be one of the arrogant city newcomers telling everybody else what to do.

[oowolf]

Remenber the Rapanui, after trashing their environment, began-and expedited -THEIR dieoff with warfare.

[bart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado Valley', ' ')I'm part of the community now even though my views about things are almost diametrically opposed to the good ol' boys. But I can harass them about their redneck ways and attitudes because we're all friends now, and we help each other out

[Colorado-Valley]

Yeah, Bart, I'm well acquainted with both those guys, and I've written for High Country News, which attempts to find a common ground between ranchers and newcomers.

On our little ranch, we employ as much of this philosophy as we can.

Today the good ol' boys were getting reallly angry about the gas prices, and apparently Rush had been blaming the environmentalists on the radio, because they were on a rampage.

"There's lots of oil in this country, if the environmentalists would just let 'em drill for it."

I feel a bit sorry for these guys. They all have big diesel pick-ups and tractors, and they've bought into a lifestyle where they have to have those things.

Now their world's beginning to crumble.

[bart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado Valley', 'T')hey all have big diesel pick-ups and tractors, and they've bought into a lifestyle where they have to have those things.

Now their world's beginning to crumble.