[rogerhb]

Situation is your country is overpopulated.

1) solution one, reduce your own population

2) solution two, wait for nature

3) solution three, invade your neighbour with intent to depopulate them.

You are not going to opt for reducing your population because your neighbour will invade you.

It's mutually-assured-destruction except the people are the weapons. If you do nothing, nature takes it's course, if you try to do it yourself you make yourself vulnerable to you neighbours.

The one that will be "acceptable" to any nation will be to make some other nation be the one to de-populate, and you expand into their vacant land.

Remember you have to promise hope to your own people, if the only hope is to take somebody elses country then that is what you will do.

[egoldstein]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('foodnotlawns', 'F')oo, we got an infestation of cornucopians!

[gg3]

Egoldstein, I think you've got Stanton pegged: he appeals to fear, as a deliberate tactic, with the goal of justifying (through tortured logic) putting people in concentration camps.

If fear is a vector (leading toward concentration camps), what's the opposite vector (leading toward a different outcome)? What's the opposite of fear; or what factors plural work together to pull in the opposite direction?

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'E')goldstein, I think you've got Stanton pegged: he appeals to fear, as a deliberate tactic, with the goal of justifying (through tortured logic) putting people in concentration camps.

If fear is a vector (leading toward concentration camps), what's the opposite vector (leading toward a different outcome)? What's the opposite of fear; or what factors plural work together to pull in the opposite direction?

[egoldstein]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'I')f fear is a vector (leading toward concentration camps), what's the opposite vector (leading toward a different outcome)? What's the opposite of fear; or what factors plural work together to pull in the opposite direction?

[onequestionwonder]

A lot of words.

A lot of philosophy.

But unless someone makes PV solar cells viable or a massive nuclear building program starts you are going to wind up with the situation Stanton writes about.

What exactly are the solutions Stanton's critics counter with?

[onequestionwonder]

Meant to add that I think that all the "Land Ark" types of things won't possibly be able to deal with the problem.

The US is not suddenly going to spontaneously convert it's population to 270 million John Jeavons, even if the alternative is starvation.

Oh well, kind of pointless to argue about it. Hope someone hits a home run on solar.

[egoldstein]

>A lot of words.

>A lot of philosophy.

Okay fine, fair enough. But I'm not claiming to be solving everything at once, only brainstroming ideas, and that's part of the point I think. Perhaps we also think of the definition of "solutions" along different lines.

A large part of the objection against Stanton I think comes from the idea that people must be herded like cattle for their own good, that we are all just dumb animals. This is a choice in thinking, it is not simply a given. I tend to actively believe that people can create their own solutions, and that not everyones' solutions is going to be the same.

But let's accept your premise that these aren't actually solutions, at least on a local scale. Then nationalise them. If oil is so crucial a natural resource, then ration it among citizens with credits issued each year. Make them tradeable.

This would be worth agitating for, but let's presume it doesn't work.

In California recently, a refinery fire resulted in the quadrupling of the diesel price. The company advised all customers that only those with contracts would be guaranteed a supply. The refineries are all producing at around 95% capacity now. They are only supposed to produce at 80%, to allow rolling, blanket maintenance and part-replacement on different sections of the plants, in order to avoid plant failure, explosions and fires... all the things we are seeing at the moment. There is no reason for the majors to build more plants, of course, since they know there's no more oil to justify it. What happened in California is a sign of the future; effectively it was the fist incidence of rationing - but based on a corporate-mercantile platform.

So here's another realpolitik scenario for Kissinger fans:
Sometime in the next year, when oil is getting to $75 a barrell, some event will give governments worldwide the excuse to ration oil supply. Despite all the malarky about free markets among major companies in the US, they don't really want that if it means oil ascending to $165. So they'll put the squeeze on politicians to suspend the market, and get the oil majors to only supply contracted major clients, and then only based upon what they bought over the last year or two. They'll find an excuse - maybe the US gets 1srael to proxy-b0mb the 1ranian react0rs before they go online; or someone takes out a couple of tankers in the gulf or a pipeline or refinery, or just decides to stop producing oil. On a war-footing, rationing could be introduced, and of course, in light of continuing instability, and for national security and prosperity, blah blah blah... rationing will not be rescinded thereafter. Ever. But we'll be used to it by then.

[onequestionwonder]

I really hope you are right.

It's very hard to be optimistic right now.

Not just the energy problem, though it is probably the most pressing.

Climate Change been happening for years, and it is not at all clear that any Kyoto sort of agreement would slow it, let alone stop it or reverse it.

The earth is flat out overpopulated for the resource base we have.

Brainstorm away. It's just that I don't believe any sort of approach that asks the majority of the population to embrace reason, logic, or ask any sort of sacrifice has a chance in hell of being implemented.

Ironically there have been instances in human history where that has happened. Maybe it will in some parts of the world, but there is a rat fart chance of it happening in the US.

[gg3]

Onequestionwonder: Yes, I'm advocating a massive building program: nuclear, solar, wind, public transport, major efficiency retrofits of infrastructure, etc. etc.

Egoldstein, you & I have much to talk about, though I don't have free trunk calls to overseas destinations, so I'll send email via private message on this site after I get back from work this evening.

More later; this is an interesting discussion...

BTW, Stanton definitely gets nominated for "Malthusian Macho: It's a Hobbes World After All." I'll list him there this evening too...

[gg3]

Energyspin, re. fear:

Secularism per se can still be manipulated to instill fear and benefit from it. Think of the Soviet Union, Maoist China, etc.

Reason operates at right-angles to other emotional states, including fear.

But the emotion that is the opposite vector from fear, is *love.* Think about that for a while... and think out all the implications.


Egoldstein:

Vacuous optimism vs. grounded hope: check. People use these words differently, but when they spell out the meanings, they converge.

Alinsky: check! Yes! Definitely! I think he started an organization of some kind, if I recall correctly the name was ACORN, but I haven't heard of it in recent memory so it's either died or ossified. Time to plant a new one and grow a new tree.

Ecoresorts: interesting idea, but very often what happens is a longterm subsistence cashflow situation, where a community fails to get some other livelihood off the ground. Actually this is a risk of many types of community enterprises in rural areas. What I think is needed to break that cycle is a means of livelihood that derives its income from the cities. Production of some kind of high-value luxury goods, or high-added-value necessities. Sustainable economics is a major topic.

Locally produced energy credits: I'm working with some people on that concept. I don't know if I can say much more about it at present, but they are publishing a book shortly and after it's out I can talk more about this.

Ithaca Hours: an old friend of mine is a key person in that system, I know a decent amount about it.

I have not heard of Liberty Dollars yet; interesting concept; though I am personally wary of currencies based on precious metals or other scarce commodities. There is no direct & necessary relationship between silver (or gold or whatever) and the essentials for life support.

Though, I'll be interested to study Liberty Dollars in more detail, specifically because of what you said about the difference with Ithaca Hours in terms of outcomes for private capital accumulation vs. for social capital. I tend to believe we need mechanisms for both in a viable sustainable economy, but neither should be in a position to go into a positive feedback loop (which is after all how we got into the present mess).

Broad movement: Let's start with some highly successful local examples, for example Ithaca Hours; and build those into a network. Nothing succeeds like a viable example of success.

Thoughtful conservatives: I'm one; am presently writing an article on this subject, for the people who are publishing a book. Key concept: Hysteresis (meaning, delay between input and output or between cause and effect). The core of conservatism is skepticism toward change, and most particularly, skepticism toward rapid change. (Though there are of course counterexamples where a necessary change should come rapidly, for example anything concerned with fundamental civil rights.)

Earth is God's property: cool way of expressing that idea.

Movement, re. lifestyle etc.: obviously we can't insist on everyone thinking & acting the same. Ideologues on the right and left both tend to do that one, and it annoys the hell out of me.

Wendell Berry et. al.: I have some reading to do; will probably look for the stuff online or at least discussions of it. Though we do have a good public library system here in Berkeley...

I'll check out your linked article by Foldvary. (Ee-yow, too much reading to do, I could spend 24/7 doing nothing but reading & writing...)

You're not pontificating; your stuff is good; you have interesting ideas, you write well, and people who require short soundbites don't know what they're missing.


Onequestionwonder:

As I said, solar, nuclear, wind, hydro, biofuels, conservation, efficiency, public transport, etc. etc., massive construction projects all 'round, taking nothing for granted.


Egoldstein again:

And we will soon enough start focusing on specific solutions. The brainstorming is useful & necessary; gets ideas on the table; gets the brain warmed up for directed planning.

Re. Stanton: I don't think he wants to "herd the cattle" for their good. I think he's rationalizing herding the cattle for the good of himself and his presumed aristocracy. Fascists are good at making excuses of that kind.

I don't think there's no solution. I just think we're very screwed and we'd better start doing everything we can to fix it, because the risk of failure is hardly as bad as the risk of not trying. And in fact I tend to be grounded-hopeful about what may be possible. Much hinges on a few variables, such as our next two elections...

And ultimately, the Azimov's Foundation strategy could work to the greater good: local preservation of vital knowledge during a collapse period, making it easier to rebuild after the worst is over. Don't I wish I could live for 200 years to see how it comes out:-) .

Rationing: William F. Buckley just came out in favor. He's an oldschool conservative who has some very interesting things to say, and he is not one of these neocon ideologues who sounds like a recording. I don't agree with everything he has to say, but he's got a good brain in his head. BTW, I do agree with rationing. And the whole "powerdown" plan.

Re. 1sr@3l and 1r@n: clever use of numbers there, but a) we don't have to worry about intercepts, our friends at the place that measures its computers by the acre really don't care about us, and b) they have bigger fish to fry these days and a hell of a backlog (yours too, in the place that starts with B, and the 4-letter agency that starts with G:-).

Interesting point though about war being an excuse for rationing. However I don't see the Bushies doing that. Look at the Halliburton Giveaway. They just take & grab. Rationing be damned, the majors are making a killing on high prices.

I don't know what it would take to get us to rationing. Serious rationing with coupon books or a card or whatever. But I agree it's part of the solution. And same case with electricity until we can put enough wind/nuclear/solar online to start making up the difference, which I think will take ten to fifteen years.


Onequestionwonder:

Climate change. Yes. Another reason I think we're screwed. Badly. And yet on this very board, are people talking about building community in Ohio, which is going to freeze over due to increased seasonal extremes at both ends of the year.

Agreed the US is full of spoiled people whose idea of sacrifice is watching a smaller color TV. Whatever it takes to get them to sit up and notice, will also have been bad enough to economically wipe out a whole lot who are below them on the ladder. The ones at the bottom drown, the ones higher up get their feet wet and decide it's time to do something. Unless some kind of socialistic leveling can be put into effect. Despite my conservative nature I'm starting to think that some kind of socialistic measures may be necessary.


Hmm, looks like we're caught up. Your turn!

[foodnotlawns]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('egoldstein', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('foodnotlawns', 'F')oo, we got an infestation of cornucopians!

[gg3]

Yow!, please keep the quotes down to reasonable sizes...

Foodnotlawns:

Re. bonobos vs. chimps: Humans have genetic lineage going back to both. Some humans are more like chimps, some are more like bonobos. The majority can probably be swayed to go either way. Which path we take is a choice made on the macro scale. I'm with the bonobos.

Ants & grasshoppers: Same point minus the genetic similarities. The most extreme grasshoppers cheat, whether welfare (at the lower end) or corporate fraud (at the upper end). Those are dangerous.

Humans are overdue to evolve. I suspect the chimps will merrily kill each other off, the grasshoppers will wilt & die, and the bonobos will flourish in small enclaves of relative sanity. (And sex, can't forget the sex. Oral sex, so it doesn't produce another population explosion!)

Dude, you have shitty neighbors. Get outta there while the getting is good.

Make love not war, didn't work the last time. Or rather, it worked to a degree, for a minority; but the majority of Boomers were spoiled grasshoppers extraordinaire. The 1960s was a single decade; not enough of a datapoint to draw conclusions.

Re. the Frankfurt School Left: Yes, and mental masturbation for the intellectual elites. One of the reasons I got disgusted with the left as it existed in the 1980s/90s. This could be an interesting side-conversation.

In those days I found that I'd run into a wall of resistance every time I asked the question "how do we get from here to there?" Those people were more interested in the baroque loop-the-loops of critical theory and deconstructionism and hadn't a vague faint clue about infrastructure or engineering or anything else with an empirical basis to it.

But now it's the extreme right's turn to dumb down education, via creationism and flat-earthism and teaching to the test; a kind of Western madrassas-style "education" that's based on rote and memorization, and accomplishes nothing more effectively than the stifling of whatever geniuses may sprout up between the cracks.

The deconstructionists and the fundamentalists deserve each other.

[Lehyina]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e were too nice, too charitable, and let the world use our technology to grow itself to 7 billion. It's horrible, there's too many people, too much overcrowding, and too much immigration. Spend a few hours in New York City and you'll be praying for mushroom clouds on the horizing.

[guamanian]

This is a great forum -- I find that sharp exchanges that don't deteriorate into shouting matches are a rarity online. The users of this board clearly are committed to constructive dialogue.

gg3 -- as an aside on a comment way back in the thread: your point about tagging the German people with the Nazi legacy is well taken. I hesitated -- enlisting cultural intolerance in a struggle against fascism is a slippery slope! However... Stanton's intended audience is the soon-to-be-dispossessed conservative English middle class, a group very vulnurable to moving towards racism and intolerance as the oil economy contracts, but also a group with a fine-tuned sense of disrespect for stuffed shirts and fools. Positioning Stanton as a latter-day Lord Haw Haw with the Monty Python 'Mister Hilter' sketch is a vicious but very sticky meme -- so I slapped it on and lit the fuse in the hopes of blowing the turret off of Stanton's project before it becomes more than a thought experiment. If the meme propagates, it may do more than any hard-science analysis to deep-six Stanton's Fascist Future.

The fact that I'm taking Stanton's view seriously at all is indicative of my concern about the politics of the early phases of energy descent. I have a nasty suspicion that 5 years into the down-slope there will not be a single functioning democracy left on the planet: Just different flavours of authoritarianism as governments struggle to maintain nation-state scale without the required energy reserves.

It is a weak hope, but perhaps the difference between a 'brutal dictatorship' and a 'genocidal dictatorship' may be latent in the values and thoughts that we help to spread (or, in this case, un-spread!) as energy descent begins.

[Arma15]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('foodnotlawns', 'B')ut when the food shortages hit, these "grasshoppers" will turn into aggressive chimps demanding what I stored up. More and more of them. Millions from the cities, like New York, and I'm only a couple hundred miles from New York City.

the oblivious hundreds of millions + mass food shortages = die off

[Jenab6]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflurry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')nstantaneous nuclear elimination of population centres might even be considered merciful, compared to starvation and massacres prolonged over decades.

[DefiledEngine]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Blind belief to darwinism is an insult to biology as well. The real world is more about symbiotic rather than antagonistic relationships.

[Ludi]

Reduce your own damn self.