[Russian_Cowboy]

Assuming that the oil prices are increasing at an average rate of $30/year (this is how fast they have been growing since Jan. 2005) I evaluated the pinch the average folks will feel in different countries (excluding most African countries). The numbers below are rough estimates of the percentage that will be shaved off the salaries of average folks every year in the next couple of years. The formula I used is as follows:

Effect=(annual oil consumption in barrels - (annual oil production in barrels) / 2) * $30 / (GDP in US$)

I divided the annual oil production by two because almost 1/2 of the extra oil revenues are pocketed by the top executives of oil companies, rich shareholders, and corrupt officials in the oil-producing countries. In addition, the cost of producing oil is growing very fast. I would group the countries hurt by the oil spike as follows according to the country scores:

1-2 - some economic slowdown
3-5 - significant economic slowdown, recession
6 and above - depression and an economic disaster, possibly causing a widespread civil unrest

Tajikistan 10
Kyrgyzstan 10
Dominican Republic 8
Singapore 8
Mongolia 8
Nicaragua 7
Georgia 6
Thailand 5
Ukraine 5
Belize 5
Suriname 5
Macedonia 5
Bulgaria 4
Honduras 4
Philippines 4
Uzbekistan 4
Paraguay 4
Uruguay 4
Bolivia 4
South Korea 4
Panama 4
Haiti 3
India 3
China 3
Egypt 3
El Salvador 3
Pakistan 3
Taiwan 3
Bosnia 3
Chile 3
Serbia & Montenegro 3
Croatia 3
Indonesia 2
Armenia 2
Lithuania 2
Israel 2
Turkey 2
Romania 2
Costa Rica 2
South Africa 2
Greece 2
Portugal 2
China Hong Kong SAR 2
Poland 2
Czech Republic 2
Slovakia 2
Guatemala 2
Brazil 2
Slovenia 2
Netherlands 2
Belgium & Luxembourg 2
Spain 2
Peru 2
Iceland 2
Bangladesh 2
USA 2
New Zealand 1
Finland 1
Hungary 1
Japan 1
Italy 1
Republic of Ireland 1
France 1
Germany 1
Austria 1
Australia 1
Sweden 1
Switzerland 1
Canada 1
Malaysia 0
United Kingdom 0
Vietnam 0
Argentina 0
Mexico 0
Denmark 0
Turkmenistan -1
Colombia -1
Syria -1
Iran -3
Russian Federation -4
Ecuador -5
Norway -6
Azerbaijan -9
Venezuela -9
Algeria -9
Kazakhstan -12
Yemen -12
Saudi Arabia -16
United Arab Emirates -16
Oman -17
Qatar -22
Kuwait -25

If only 1/3 of the oil revenues are pocketed by the top executives, corrupt officials and lost due to the increase in the cost of oil production, the scores will be as follows:

Tajikistan 10
Kyrgyzstan 10
Dominican Republic 8
Singapore 8
Mongolia 7
Nicaragua 7
Georgia 6
Thailand 5
Ukraine 5
Belize 5
Macedonia 5
Bulgaria 4
Honduras 4
Philippines 4
Paraguay 4
Uruguay 4
South Korea 4
Panama 4
Haiti 3
India 3
El Salvador 3
Pakistan 3
China 3
Bolivia 3
Taiwan 3
Bosnia 3
Suriname 3
Chile 3
Armenia 2
Serbia & Montenegro 2
Israel 2
Croatia 2
Lithuania 2
Turkey 2
Costa Rica 2
Greece 2
Portugal 2
China Hong Kong SAR 2
Poland 2
South Africa 2
Czech Republic 2
Romania 2
Slovakia 2
Slovenia 2
Belgium & Luxembourg 2
Netherlands 2
Guatemala 2
Spain 2
Indonesia 2
Iceland 2
Uzbekistan 2
Bangladesh 2
USA 1
Brazil 1
Peru 1
Egypt 1
New Zealand 1
Finland 1
Japan 1
Hungary 1
Italy 1
Republic of Ireland 1
France 1
Germany 1
Austria 1
Sweden 1
Australia 1
Switzerland 1
United Kingdom 0
Canada 0
Denmark 0
Argentina -1
Malaysia -1
Mexico -1
Vietnam -2
Colombia -2
Syria -5
Turkmenistan -7
Russian Federation -7
Ecuador -8
Iran -8
Norway -8
Algeria -14
Venezuela -14
Azerbaijan -16
Yemen -18
Kazakhstan -18
United Arab Emirates -23
Saudi Arabia -23
Oman -23
Qatar -31
Kuwait -35

[pup55]

Cool.

Why isn't Japan higher on the list?

Seems like the bigger the gap between production and consumption, the bigger the nominal value ought to be.

Is your GDP value "per capita" or gross GDP for the whole country?

[Russian_Cowboy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'C')ool.

Why isn't Japan higher on the list?

[shakespear1]

Cowboy

If Ukraine is at 5 then Poland must also. If I am correct Ukarine has more coal than Poland so it has a source to fall back on in great quantities.

My 2 pennies of knowledge.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ont know. This is how the numbers came out