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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Opportunities

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Opportunities

Unread postby Kylon » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 17:50:15

You say crisis, I say opportunity.

What are the opportunities of Peak Oil?

1. We know oil prices will progressively go up and fast, therefore we can safely place money in commodity trading and make a big profit.

2. Those with resources, and more importantly the means to control them, can have control over those who don't. Seeing how we have more preparation, we have the capacity for both.

3. As people become concerned with things like food, they won't focus on things like art as much, or tools or anything else, all they will want is to eat, therefore you or anyone else can price gauge.

Some advantages to Peak Oil.

Can you think of some more?
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Re: Opportunities

Unread postby gt1370a » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 18:33:52

Well, I think that kind of thinking is what got us so fucked up in the first place. "Hey, everyone is going to be dying and suffering, how can I profit from it?"

I hope the long-term consequence of peak oil is that we can develop a less materialistic society where people don't have to be on Prozac just to get through another pointless and miserable day.

However, one of my main focuses on this board has been financial preparation. I think that the nearest-term consequences are going to be recession/depression (rather than fast crash), and proper financial preparation now could help us prepare for the breakdown that follows. But I can't imagine price-gouging starving people for food... In fact, I bet the government will execute people for that.
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Re: Opportunities

Unread postby whiteknight » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 18:41:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gt1370a', ' ')But I can't imagine price-gouging starving people for food... In fact, I bet the government will execute people for that.


Unless you took the forethought of buying some choice politicos... then it's not price gouging. All in who you own.
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Re: Opportunities

Unread postby MicroHydro » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 19:51:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gt1370a', ' ')I can't imagine price-gouging starving people for food... In fact, I bet the government will execute people for that.


Then you have a poor imagination and are a poor bettor. In the USA in the 1930s farmers destroyed food that could not be sold profitably while the starving 'Okies' watched. Such an incident was fictionalized in "The Grapes of Wrath", and the same happened in real life. Likewise, the Los Angeles Police Department set up a checkpoint at the California border to hassle economic refugees from other states. The government works for the monied classes, always has.
"The world is changed... I feel it in the water... I feel it in the earth... I smell it in the air... Much that once was, is lost..." - Galadriel
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Re: Opportunities

Unread postby jimmydean » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 20:28:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kylon', 'Y')ou say crisis, I say opportunity.

What are the opportunities of Peak Oil?

1. We know oil prices will progressively go up and fast, therefore we can safely place money in commodity trading and make a big profit.

2. Those with resources, and more importantly the means to control them, can have control over those who don't. Seeing how we have more preparation, we have the capacity for both.

3. As people become concerned with things like food, they won't focus on things like art as much, or tools or anything else, all they will want is to eat, therefore you or anyone else can price gauge.

Some advantages to Peak Oil.

Can you think of some more?


Rather than profit I like to think of this as best way to preserve capital heading into peak oil realization with the definite possiblility of a not so soft landing and economic trouble.

Commodity trading imho is not for average joe investor. Your much better to speculate with actual stock in the short-term: VLO, XTO and ECA are 3 of my favourites atm. Buy 6 month+ call options if you feel lucky.

TIPS for inflation protection until peak oil hits after which we may have deflation depending on currency/economy.

Depending on how bad you think it will get a % of real gold should be in your portfolio. Gold is up over 60% or so since May 2000 :)

If you have a large house another option is downsizing a bit - take some of that capital out of the house while prices are still relatively good.

Just some ideas that I've been mulling around :)
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Re: Opportunities

Unread postby MaterialExcess » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 23:04:09

I would stay away from the futures market unless you really know what you are doing. It may be true that oil prices will go up over the long term, but there will also be dips along the way. An unexpected dip at the wrong time could wipe you out.

The best peak oil investment is some tillable land and a house the can be lived in with little external energy requirements. If you think food gouging is going to be a problem, why not invest in the means to produce food?
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Re: Opportunities

Unread postby RonMN » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 23:18:54

You say "opportunities"...opportunity to MAKE MONEY??? You obviously haven't thought about the dollar crashing have you? Because if you plan to make money now, you had better be ready to spend it on something smart (land, shelter, food, heirloom seeds, shovels, etc.).

If not...well...then you'll have ALOT of green printed toilet paper on hand :)
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Re: Opportunities

Unread postby neo » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 23:50:45

After realizing PO was approaching last year, I sold all my tech stock and purchased energy/basic material stocks. 20% gain so far this year. So knowing PO does have some financial advantage.
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Re: Opportunities

Unread postby joewp » Sun 14 Aug 2005, 00:58:26

The key is knowing when in the future to convert imaginary dollars into real goods, be it real estate, gold or silver.
Joe P. joeparente.com
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
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Re: Opportunities

Unread postby GoIllini » Sun 14 Aug 2005, 02:05:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MaterialExcess', 'I') would stay away from the futures market unless you really know what you are doing. It may be true that oil prices will go up over the long term, but there will also be dips along the way. An unexpected dip at the wrong time could wipe you out.

The best peak oil investment is some tillable land and a house the can be lived in with little external energy requirements. If you think food gouging is going to be a problem, why not invest in the means to produce food?


I'd suggest waiting for the impending real-estate crash, first. You'll see a lot of agribusinesses go up in smoke, and a lot of people losing their farms. It'll be sad, but waiting for it to happen will allow you to help them more than if you buy now. Be sure to buy farmland that was productive BEFORE modern irrigation, fertilizers, etc.

In the meantime, oil companies, coal companies, railroads, and utilities heavy in nuclear and renewables look like good bets- especially refiners capable of processing heavy crude.
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Re: Opportunities

Unread postby jaws » Sun 14 Aug 2005, 02:20:09

Any industry that will provide the backbone of the post-peak economy is a good investment opportunity. This includes at its foundation organic farms, then low-cost transportation, alternative energy generation, new urbanist developers. If you can find an opportunity to invest in an enterprise of this type you are very likely to become very wealthy from peak oil as society will need your services as a matter of emergency.
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Re: Opportunities

Unread postby gt1370a » Sun 14 Aug 2005, 11:02:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', '
')Then you have a poor imagination and are a poor bettor. In the USA in the 1930s farmers destroyed food that could not be sold profitably while the starving 'Okies' watched. Such an incident was fictionalized in "The Grapes of Wrath", and the same happened in real life. Likewise, the Los Angeles Police Department set up a checkpoint at the California border to hassle economic refugees from other states. The government works for the monied classes, always has.


Wow. What I meant was I can't imagine ME price-gouging starving people for food (which is what the original post suggested I do), and there's no need to be insulting about it. But you make an interesting point nonetheless.
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Re: Opportunities

Unread postby Kylon » Fri 19 Aug 2005, 19:09:01

I original thought that a crash would break perhaps a feudal society(due to total anarchy), but I have come to the realization that it will simply lead to fascism(due to the fact that the rich and powerful will want to keep and secure their power, and fascism will be the most effective means of doing so).

In essence, the dollar won't be worthless. It may take 4 billion dollars to buy a loaf of bread, but it won't be worthless, there will still be currency, because there will still be society. The real danger with currency however, won't be the inflated prices, but rather the fact that it may flucuate(something that is hard to deal with). So in many cases I might trade for solid goods instead of currency.

In a fascist society you can own property, and run a business, so long as you suckup and bribe to the local politician, and don't get in their way. Also, it helps if you serve some valuable need of society(food production, energy production ect...)

Also, in a fascist society, business becomes exceptionally profitable for those who control the means of production.

Taxes are lower, and what not, and you can easily make a buck off of cheap labor.

The government is already moving towards fascism, there's a website that describes it pretty well, if you google search "Is America becoming Fascist?", then it will pop up.

I have a lot to lose from this society going fascist, as I am disabled, but I have to get with the times. I'm not going to sponsor or promote fascism, but I will use it to my advantage. Just like we're not in favor of peak oil, but we've gotta get with the times.

You can either move with the current and use it's strength for your own advantage, or be crushed by it, it's your choice. I choose the former, I've got a family to think about.


(BTW, politically I am diametrically opposed to fascism. I'm a independent-liberal-libertarian(but I am conservative when it comes to religious beliefs), and I abhor fascism, but for me, it's adapt or die.)
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Go for Vice Farming

Unread postby foodnotlawns » Fri 19 Aug 2005, 19:46:20

On your organic farm, be sure to grow hard red winter wheat and get a recipe to make beer with it from the book "The Alaskan Bootlegger's Bible"

Also, get tobacco seeds from www.seedman.com and grow cigarette tobaccol, and get one of those cigarette rolling machines and several cases of rolling papers. Imagine the gold and silver you'll get for a few buckets of beer and a few thousand home grown cigarettes?

Be sure to tkae your booty to the richest town in the area. of course, there will be alcoholic poor people with nice gun collections, too.

I can't wait for the end of welfare. I hope all these welfare suckers head south the first winter, cause no one's going to keep them warm or feed their ugly faces any more.
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