[Markos101]

It's quotes like these from the BBC News Online report:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')But perhaps what is most interesting about this Economics, Industry & Finance Ministry report, is that it actually mentions a possible production plateau at all.

Even one year ago it was unheard of to find the subject mentioned amongst government ministries or financial institutions.

Now banks such as Goldman Sachs, Caisse D'Epargne/Ixis, Simmons International and the Bank of Montreal have all broached the subject.

"They are being forced to by circumstances," says Professor Richard Heinberg, author of 'peak oil' books Power Down and The Party's Over.

"They have relied on optimistic data and rosy outlooks that are being proven to be incorrect."

Nevertheless, some analysts disagree with the notion of any peak in oil production, also known as 'Hubberts curve', after the geologist M King Hubbert who first argued the case.

Deborah White, senior energy analyst at Societe Generale in Paris, says that "we have heard these arguments about 'peak oil' since the idea of Hubert's curve came into being.

"We don't endorse the idea at all."

[shakespear1]

Many of these guys have never seen an oil field. Never looed at data that is used to evaluate reserves, simulate a field or even analize a wells production potential.

Same guys who think that chickens come from the grocery store freezer.

If they do know that chickens are raised on a farm, then perhaps they are purposely not entertaining the notion of peak oil coming soon.

[RonMN]

Maybe it IS to hit a maximum & then just die right then & there...That is what will happen to all the wells that are using water or C02 injection (like gawhar)...once they hit a point where there is so much water cut, the field is dead...there is no downslope.

[Raxozanne]

I remember reading that very article last month and asking myself that same question about that woman.

[Raxozanne]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'M')aybe it IS to hit a maximum & then just die right then & there...That is what will happen to all the wells that are using water or C02 injection (like gawhar)...once they hit a point where there is so much water cut, the field is dead...there is no downslope.

[Mower]

She is eiether a liar or a fool. One or the other.

[americandream]

What annoys me is that these papers never seem to ask the next obvious question...is oil going to be an infinite resource then if peaking is not an issue or does she endorse a later peaking date etc, etc, etc. This is dreadful reporting...to be blunt, misleading.

[NEOPO]

yep

and Ron is an optomist!! heheh

I dont even like the word "expert".
I prefer the term "professional" which simply implies a person who is getting paid for doing a job.
It doesnt mean they do it well.
It doesnt mean they wont make common mistakes etc etc.
If I am ever considered an expert in any field please do not tell me it is so as the information will go directly to my brain and seriously effect my "expert" judgement!!!
One day I might even start believing my own bullshit!!

Within a "group/set/click" of people we/they decide who is most knowledgeable on any given subject and we/they title that person "expert".

Can we "add/sticky" this topic onto the current topic concerning Mike Lynch please oh please???

[rockdoc123]

Yes it is amazing what constitutes an 'expert". A good friend of my wife's has a PhD in economics and was the chief oil and gas analyst for a company which is very well known for it's predicitions (not going to mention the name in order to protect the guilty...suffice it to say a number of people here have slammed the company on numerous occassions). I had the opportunity to discuss oil price predictions with her on several occassions and she was quoted continually in the press regarding her views as to where oil price was going in say the next 6 months. Interestingly enough she was never right....and I mean never..but she continued to be quoted and treated with deference by the press. Go figure.
Similarily the so-called oil and gas financial experts are another joke. Few of these guys come from technical backgrounds....most from finance backgrounds (I've never yet met someone from the finance end of the companies I've worked for who really appreciates E&P). But they never cease to amaze me how much they claim to know about oil and gas operations of such and such company. Most of these guys wouldn't know a kelly bushing from a baby buggy but they still like to spout off with their predictions and the press laps it up.
Bottom line is if you have a gullible audience you too can be an expert. Care to hear my predictions on the next Rugby world cup.....honestly I'm an expert and you should listen to me.

[Markos101]

That's right, and one of the lessons I've learned over the past couple of years is that the least reliable people to report on anything is journalists. The number of technically competent investigative journalists in the UK is pitifully small, and the media will never divert from the mainstream view. None of them seem to have the slightest of grasps on any subject.

Also, I've learned that some of the worst people to run the country are politicians, who are not 'experts' on anything, and the unfortunate fact of the matter is that they rely on incompetant journalists to tell them what issues matter!...arrggh!

Mark

[Novus]

When the experts fail to get things right it means standards have decayed in the subject matter. It is a sign that as a society we have started to accept ignorance in place of truth. The last time that happened on a societal scale was during the Dark Ages. - Jane Jacobs Dark Age Ahead

[shakespear1]

Yes, the word "Expert" is used a lot today in many areas and it just makes you wonder where the person got their experties.

[lateStarter]

"We don't endorse the idea at all."

Isn't that like saying: 'we don't like the concept of PO... We do not want it, therefore it will not happen!'

'Remember, I make a lot more money than you do, so that makes me an expert' (even though I am just a mouth-piece [talking head] for my trainers, I still make a lot of money, so I must be an expert. Plus I have really nice hair). The rest of you are just cattle'.

[Free]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', '"')We don't endorse the idea at all."

Isn't that like saying: 'we don't like the concept of PO... We do not want it, therefore it will not happen!'

[Ardalla]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')"we have heard these arguments about 'peak oil' since the idea of Hubert's curve came into being.

[rockdoc123]

To be completely fair I think there are some economists who actually understand the current dynamics....one is Jeff Rubin who is the head economist for CIBC world markets:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')anada, more than most countries, should be able to cope with $100 (U.S.) per barrel oil - a price consumers are likely to see by the end of the decade.

Alberta's massive oil sands promise to make Canada one of the world's largest oil producers, and one which is strategically located next to the huge U.S. energy market. Soaring cross-border energy exports to the United States, and the promise of massive investment in the oil sands, paint a very rosy picture for the country's oil and gas patch in Alberta.

Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for the rest of the Canadian economy. ...

Soaring oil prices have the potential to fundamentally reshape the economic landscape of the country. The key question is to what extent market forces will be permitted to act. The last time oil prices were at or above today's level, in real dollars, Ottawa imposed made-in-Canada oil prices under its infamous National Energy Program. If and how it plans to redistribute national wealth this time around remains to be seen.

[Frontierenergy1]

Rockdoc:

So you say they don't know the difference between a Kelly Cock and a Cows Cock?

Hee Hee

[jimmydean]

To me it's fairly obvious that the oil industry, government and the banks do not want the public to be aware of peak oil.

Reasons:
1. Oil Industry
The longer people think that we are seeing an oil price spike rather than a long term trend the more likely they are to continue OR expand their consumption by buying more SUV's, taking long distance vacations ... which puts cash into oil company coffers. The oil industry would be happy to maintain oil at $75 or more if they could to increase profits.

2. Government
Last thing they want is a panic OR to be held accountable for ineffectual legislation on dealing with the problem (aka Highway Bill! LOL). If they acknowledge peak oil people will begin downsizing their lives which will kill the economy aka their revenue stream. Also the average person may even begin to wonder if Iraq was more about oil control or WMD finally.

3. Banks
People will continue to take outlandishly large mortgages, buy more SUV's and spend more money in general if peak oil is simply dismissed as a crazy idea. Financers win on all fronts and if someone can't afford that house any longer they repossess it and still win.

The longer the denial goes on the longer we can live in advanced reality increasing the likelyhood that PO realization will go BOOM instead of giving us all a chance of a softer landing.

[AdzP]

I wrote the piece in question:

1. I can`t see the word `expert` used in the selected quote, it says analyst.
2. the piece was all about `peak oil` entering the mainstream debate so it was hardly hiding or obfuscating the subject. it certainly isn't `misleading`.
3. in journalism one often uses people who disagree with a certain subject to show there is differing opinion. which there is on peak oil.
4. there is disagreement even between `peak oilers`. as evidenced by PO.com's forums.
5. it wasn't `a paper` it was BBC News Online.
6. many banks are openly talking about `po`, say Don Coxe at BoM...
7. govts are also talking about it (see the piece)

Why not actually read the piece it might help your expert judgments...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4077802.stm

best
adam

[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')he is eiether a liar or a fool. One or the other