[dmtu]

Pup,

I remember asking you long ago how you felt about this impending crisis and you seemed to be on a fence but leaning. With your position in the industry in mind, what is your take today?

Notice: The pros will not be happy if you make monetary decisions based on these opinions.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')hat is your take today?

[seahorse]

Pup

If you believe peak will occur after 2006, what is it that will drive oil to $88 per barrel in April of 2006?

[pup55]

The $88.88 prediction was for December 30th.

Disclaimer: All of these predictions are based on a mathematical model and are likely to be BS, and may have no resemblance to reality whatsoever, plus I am not an expert and not authoritative, plus do not go out and sell your house based on the following: Also, do not believe everything you see on the internet especially this.

After having said that, the model I have predicts unleaded gas prices NYMEX contract #1. The 88 figure above, and the oil prices below, are just the gas price multiplied by 42, out of laziness.

Date Gas Price Oil Price
Sept 1 '05 209 87.79
Oct 18, '05 169 71.36
Jan 30, 2006 225 94.55
Mar 21. 2006 165 69.60
Jun 22 '06 233 98.25

There is about a 5 cent standard error on the gas price. Also, this model is about 2 weeks ahead of the current uptrend so do not be surprised if the September 1 peak happens in mid-September.

Anyway this model is just built on sine waves, and has picked up a roughly 100-trading day cycle (which is about 140 "real days") in gas prices. I don't necessarily know why this should be except for the seasonality issue, since for the past couple of years, there have been price peaks in the spring and fall. Also there is an overall uptrend of .19 cents per day which has gone on for the last 2 years at least. So, you add the 100-day cycle and the uptrend together and you get progressively higher peaks, about 100 days apart, which is what we see.

Khebab's model is better than mine, I think, and also models crude oil, but his also predicts an uptrend right about now.

At some point, this model will blow up, and I will have to update it.

I have the model printed out in the Market Math thread in the depletion modeling forum, if you want to copy it into your favorite spreadsheet program and observe its performance vs. the historical data. The last data point is for July 19th.

I don't have any big emotional attachment to this prediction method, it's just kind of entertaining. If you have a better idea, feel free to post it for discussion.

[seahorse2]

No, I don't have a better model - I'm not capable of modelling. I have read your, Kehab's and the other models on the "depletion forums" and find them interesting.

However, what is it you believe is increasing the price of crude and gasoline in the models? Lynch would say the world oil market is well supplied, and thus, the increase is speculation. The Saudi's would say its a lack of down stream infastructure, and Campbell would say its depletion causing the increase. Are you able to determine what is driving the increase reflected in the models?

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')re you able to determine what is driving the increase reflected in the models?

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he official pup55 prediction is for 201 mbbl (sum of reformulated, conventional and blending components)

[strider3700]

Heh I do modelling by gut feeling guessing.
Looking at todays numbers I'm not certain that my doomer call for next week will happen. It may come in a little higher.

I am going to call another increase in gas at the pumps. We're currently at 106.9/liter which jumped 5.4 cents on monday night. I expect to see 112.5 within the next two weeks.

AS was pointed out above, I'm guessing and doing anything with my numbers other then pointing and laughing is highly unrecommended

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e're currently at 106.9/liter which jumped 5.4 cents on monday night. I expect to see 112.5 within the next two weeks.

[strider3700]

First Off - I AM NOT A PRO! I'm a bored computer programmer that can read numbers and speculate on the causes giving me a slightly informed opinion. Anyone using my guess's for anything import is insane and should just give me their money rather then waste it in the market


Now back to the regularly scheduled programming.

Bugger it's showing a 5.6 cent jump at the moment. When you add in the fact that tax is a percentage not a fixed amount on fuel here I'm looking at close to a 8 cent jump at the pump. (Assuming tax is about 40% of the value at the pump) I have noticed that the stations are hesitant on multiple big jumps close together so this price increase shouldn't show up for at least 2 more days.

I'll have to remember and keep everyone up to date on the price this weekend.

I guess that puts me at $1.15/liter 1 week from now. Now thats scary

[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he official pup55 prediction is for 201 mbbl (sum of reformulated, conventional and blending components)

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')irst Off - I AM NOT A PRO! I'm a bored computer programmer that can read numbers and speculate on the causes giving me a slightly informed opinion.

[strider3700]

hell if they'll pay me I'll happily write up whatever they want in my evenings.

How great would it be to have a job where I rarely have to be correct and I can just guess successfully?

AS for gambling the only thing worth playing is blackjack where they don't have a constant shuffle of the decks going. I'm blacklisted anyways...

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'y')ou don't know the composition of the blending stock.

[fossil_fuel]

prices may usually fall in october due to the end of the summer driving season's hightened demand, but this year is supposed to have record hurricane activity, which will peak around october. the refinery situation is pretty critical, all we need to have is a hurricane knock out a few more refineries and gas will really start to get expensive.

[jaws]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'P')up

If you believe peak will occur after 2006, what is it that will drive oil to $88 per barrel in April of 2006?

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince demand is always growing exponentially a slowdown in supply growth will result in rising prices