[Aaron]

Isn't this the real question on the table.

Almost nobody disputes peak oil happening...

We argue about when, and what will be the result.

Soft Landers see a road bump.
Moderates see a transition.
Doomers see brain munching zombie hordes.

So let's see how the forum has evolved since the last sampling.

Who are you?

[nero]

I put myself in the soft lander catagory even though in the long term I'm very pessimistic. In the short term (ie. next 20 years) I think the worst that can be expected is economic depression, stagflation and the occasional resource war. I think that is the soft landing scenario however because that is just business as usual.

[FatherOfTwo]

[Aaron style on]
Barring major wars, the transition will happen.
Can’t understand why doomers think people will just throw their hands up in the air and quit – oops, this problem is too tough, let’s all just die now.
Still worried about the very long term though… the population has to brought under control.
[Aaron style off]

[Pops]

See my problem is that I feel the need to prepare for a moderately doomeristic future while holding out hope for a mere speed bump - since there is no All (or None) Of The Above option; I have to vote moderate.

I’m a dyed in the wool moral relativist however so that must lean me toward being a doomer.

As does my Geiger counter and copy of Nuk. War Survival Skills.

As does the number of [unspecified] I own as well as the amount of corresponding [unspecified]. (LOL!)

But I have no bunker, teach my grandkids how to fly June bugs and speak politely as well as shoot firearms and butcher chickens, I still have a little money in an IRA and I’m as continually amazed by the selflessness of people as by their cruelty.


I think to place one's self firmly in one camp (by action in the real world as opposed to mere digital posturing in this one) is to inevitably be surprised at the limited nature of our grasp of the present, let alone the future.

[Yavicleus]

I used to be a moderate, but now I am a doomer.

[johnmarkos]

I'm a moderate leaning towards lander.

My "doomerosity" fluctuates between 2 and 3, with occasional dips and spikes out of that range depending on my mood.

Lately, I'm convinced that sustainability in general is more of a big deal than PO.

[Ludi]

After a painful period of adjustment, things will sort themselves out.

Moderate.

[venky]

I believe if we are lucky and work hard at solutions(of course we are doing nothing at the moment), barring any wars or disruptions a soft landing is possible.

I am however looking at a moderately bumpy transistion in the near term to alternatives to oil, 2020-2030. I am not that sure in the long term when all fossil fuels such as natural gas, coal run out. We will clearly need a source of energy that does not exist today. A fundamental breakthrough in Photovoltaics or nuclear fusion is required. We will need to radically alter our lifestyles as evironmental degradation/resource depletion will simply not go away.

Call me a moderate lander.

[EnviroEngr]

This looks like a follow up to: http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic375.html

[Wildwell]

Got to depend on where you live and your lifestyle doesn't it? Moderate.

[Cool Hand Linc]

Aaron,
I need to have you to be more specific. I suspect the we here (US) are in for a rough ride so I'm a doomer.

I think over all the world will be in a transition. So for the world I;m a moderate.

America must begin developing every source of electric generation we can to take us from a doom to transition state in my mind.

So I answered moderate because of the worlds situation.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') need to have you to be more specific.

[lateStarter]

After reviewing the last few thousand years of recorded history, and given the insane amount of denial regarding the problems facing mankind today, I have no choice but to vote for doomer! I am not discounting what should be possible, but the current levels of greed, ignorance, selfishness, arrogance, and mindless-consumerism leave me in the end, sad and disheartened (is that a word?)...

[turmoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'A')fter reviewing the last few thousand years of recorded history, and given the insane amount of denial regarding the problems facing mankind today, I have no choice but to vote for doomer! I am not discounting what should be possible, but the current levels of greed, ignorance, selfishness, arrogance, and mindless-consumerism leave me in the end, sad and disheartened (is that a word?)...

[MonteQuest]

Given our cultural direction, asset inertia, and the current world paradigm, I can't be anything but a doomer. How bad it gets to be depends upon the rate and magnitude. But since we are doing virtually nothing to prepare, it will come like a thief in the night.

[MrBean]

Lander. Not because I consider it the most likely scenario, but because I haven't yet accepted defeat.

Anyways, the borders are fuzzy, I'd say survival of technologal civilization and above/same as current population level around 2050 qualifies soft (enough) landing (after 2050 population should start dropping naturally).

But to make this poll more interesting, it would be fun to see how many doomers are American, and how many non-doomers are not. I think there may be a correlation.

[LadyRuby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'D')oomers see brain munching zombie hordes.

[Aaron]

It's funny to me, in a deadly serious kinda way, how optimistic people are.

As my countrymen are dying right this moment, to obtain a dominant military footprint in the oil rich Middle East, I wonder how any of you can imagine that as oil becomes more scarce, we will avoid fighting over it.

It's what we do...

[turmoil]

Let's put it this way. If you didn't have access to gasoline, heating oil, or natural gas for as little as 2 weeks, what would you do?

Exactly, you'd cope or go out and try to find some.

The sooner we get done killing each other, the sooner we can move on...to...er...finding another reason to kill each other.

[Dezakin]

I can say with confidence that these predictions of impending doom are ludicrous at best because peak oil isn't peak energy. When oil peaks it just gets expensive, and we go through resource substitution down the chain, with heavy crude, tar sands, shale, coal, eventually to entirely synthetic fuels.

It will be interesting, but not overly traumatic. I guess that would put me in the lander crowd, but I find such a term overly pessimistic; these transitions will occur over decades.