[emersonbiggins]

Some comments read over at FreeRepublic.com:

"Once there is a market shift towards hybrids, overall fuel consumption will go down, and oil will settle back into the $40/bl range."

"(Alternatives/Tar Sands/ANWR, et. al.) coming online will plunge the price of crude oil back into the $30-40 range"

"Clinton conspired with OPEC to raise prices from $20/bl to $35/bl in order for Russia to pay back more on its debts..."

Does anybody have any brief, succinct replies for this that don't entail mountains of statistics, which often put the public to sleep?
I'm sitting here trying to think of some, but I realize that I will be delving into a haranguing rant without some help.

[gnm]

Yes, they obviously haven't done the numbers.. New projects ANWR/Tar sands etc can only soften the decline of conventional, and won't even be able to replace it. That doesn't even take into account the amount that will be need for demand growth so you can say goodbye to growth right now. If thats not painful enough extrapolate current decline rates (and increases in non-conventional) out 10 years... Then it starts to get VERY painful.

-G

[lyrl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '"')Once there is a market shift towards hybrids, overall fuel consumption will go down, and oil will settle back into the $40/bl range."

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lyrl', '
')Anybody this paranoid is not going to be convinced by logical arguments. Perhaps you could direct them here; being surrounded by fellow paranoids might do something for their worldview.

[WebHubbleTelescope]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '
')Does anybody have any brief, succinct replies for this that don't entail mountains of statistics, which often put the public to sleep?

[whiteknight]

What if they are right?

The Law of Supply and Demand is about as constant as the Law of Gravity. Prices go up as demand increases if supply remains constant. If supply goes down and demand continues to rise prices go up more. If supply goes down and demand goes down prices will level off if not drop a bit.

So the question is how will Hybrids affect oil consumption? Will they reduce consumption of oil or will more consumers keep the useage at the same level? As prices go up people tend to conserve and seek alternatives, will hybrids be that alternative and will they decrease useage? Mind you what the Chinese do will play into this as well. They are looking to be a mobile society here soon, if they go Hybrid we could have a better situation than if they decide 1/4 of a billion folks will be driving SUV's...

As for Tar Sands, the production levels now are pretty small and the cost is high. They use petrolium gasses to boil the water so as they increase in price so does the tar sand oil, however at a point it will be cheeper to go to coal as a heat source for the water. If our hunger for oil is great enough then smoke filling the skies will be seen as no big deal. Those who would oppose such methods would be very unpopular with the majority, not a place to be when folks are hungry. So perhaps those sources will be able to come on line and help with the supply side.

As for the accusations against Clinton, well there is a small amount of merit to them. I have heard complaints and praises about this from folks on all sides of the politcal spectrum so it does take on a bit more of a true color than if it were only Freepers who made the claims. The main question is how much of the price hike was due to Saudi Arabia messing with production at the request of an american president and how much is people making hay from a situatuion that developed beyond the control of either the saudis or president. So in this case, how much do you believe the Saudi's control oil prices and how much control do you believe an american president has over the saudis?

Discounting the info simply because you dont like the source is not wise, even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and again. That nut may just have something you need.

Ok, you can start calling me a nutcase, loonie and nazi now. I'm ready.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whiteknight', 'T')he Law of Supply and Demand is about as constant as the Law of Gravity.

[whiteknight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '
')
'inelastic demand'

TPTB

TSHTF

[MD]

TPTB the powers that be
TSHTF the shit hits the fan

answers.com is a decent reference for all acronyms

[emersonbiggins]

'inelastic demand' - a term used when the percentage change in quantity demanded is smaller than the percentage change in price.

In other words, when the price of gas goes up, the demand doesn't fall commensurate with the price increase (not even close). In fact, even though gasoline is at record highs right now, there is still insatiable demand at the pump. Why? Simply because we require it to function as a nation, at least in its current configuration.

[whiteknight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'T')PTB the powers that be
TSHTF the shit hits the fan

answers.com is a decent reference for all acronyms

[whiteknight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', ''')inelastic demand' - a term used when the percentage change in quantity demanded is smaller than the percentage change in price.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whiteknight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', ''')inelastic demand' - a term used when the percentage change in quantity demanded is smaller than the percentage change in price.

[whiteknight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '
')If this was just about the cost of a family's typical driving habits per month, I might agree. However, the cost of oil affects everything you buy, from cars to food to medicine, and, yes, even those wonderful bagels and cups of coffee. And the simple fact is that we're running out of the good stuff, the stuff that doesn't make the refineries go *boom* every couple of days.

I've said this before, and it still resonates with me well: oil is not a piece of the economic pie, but rather the crust that holds the pie together.

[emersonbiggins]

I don't think the problem will be reducing demand as much as reducing demand and maintaining economic growth, which is requisitely important for our current system. Without growth, our economy is headed for recession, and then depression. If people cut back on consumption of other goods to pay for gas, we're going to sustain heavy losses in all sectors except for the energy sector. That sector's growth will come at the expense of all the other sectors in the economy. The only reason that PO isn't hitting us harder right now is because of all the relentless activity in the real estate market, which may be coming to a standstill and then a freefall. The chickens are certainly coming home to roost.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WhiteKnight', 'R')ope is still cheep and maybe, just maybe, we will live to see congress critters hanging from lamp poles where they belong.

[whiteknight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', ' ')I don't think the problem will be reducing demand as much as reducing demand and maintaining economic growth, which is requisitely important for our current system. Without growth, our economy is headed for recession, and then depression.