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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

If you are not in the top 5 % of wage earners in USA....

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

If you are not in the top 5 % of wage earners in USA....

Unread postby lateStarter » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 17:59:09

Ok. Asking the obvious here, but if my salary stayed the same or went down (lot of that happnening - "your salary is slated to drop 2.4% this year, want to keep your job"?) or went up a whopping 1.3%, what do you do in the face of this:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Energy prices -- 4 p.m.
Fuel Today Yesterday Chng. % chng. % chng. % chng.
qtr. YTD
Crude oil (NYMEX) (per barrel) $63.85 $62.31 $1.54 2.47% 13.01% 46.95%
Heating oil (per gallon) $1.7894 $1.7312 $0.0582 3.36% 9.37% 44.19%
Natural gas (per million BTU) $8.6840 $8.7000 -$0.0160 -0.18% 24.39% 41.43%
Unleaded gasoline (per gallon) $1.8570 $1.8322 $0.0248 1.35% 18.60% 62.47%
==================================================================================')

last number is most crucial YTD increase...
Last edited by lateStarter on Mon 08 Aug 2005, 18:11:47, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread postby BabyPeanut » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 18:09:27

My consumption has dropped and it will keep on dropping until I can't figure out (or pay for) another energy saving thing.
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Unread postby linlithgowoil » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 18:18:49

living costs across the board have been skyrocketing for about the last 5 years i would say (discounting cheap consumer goods which are cheaper all the time).

housing and all the related costs like electricity etc. is astronomically expensive now and its rising a lot faster than people's incomes. this cant go on for all that much longer, and it looks like the UK economy is just keeping its head above water before the inevitable recession that is now overdue and necessary.
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Unread postby lateStarter » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 18:26:25

Will the 'sheeple' ever say anything (rise up) or are they too distracted with the latest episode of Baywatch III?
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Unread postby Daculling » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 21:07:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'W')ill the 'sheeple' ever say anything (rise up) or are they too distracted with the latest episode of Baywatch III?


Typically they don't react until it's really bad and already too late... at least in the US. I see that. They will go on util they start losing thier homes.
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Re: If you are not in the top 5 % of wage earners in USA....

Unread postby shady28 » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 21:51:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'w')hat do you do in the face of this:


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Unread postby Leanan » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 22:18:19

I think a lot of people will be cutting back elsewhere. According to this article:

http://money.cnn.com/2005/08/08/news/ec ... /index.htm

Likely places to cut are prescription drugs, designer clothes, magazines, breakfast cereal, and cable TV.
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Unread postby ubercynicmeister » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 22:35:17

And Oil just got to $64 (and a bit above) and there's STILL no clue in the Media...I wonder what they'll say when we top $100 per barrel?

The interesting thing is the prediction by oilcast was the best....what do they say about Matt Simmons prediction about Oil getting to $300 to $600 in Q4-2005 / Q1-2006?

I suppose the Oil price *might* come down after such a thing, but how high does Oil have to go before Demand Destruction kicks in?

BTW - under Australian conditions $300 per barrel = $4(Aus) per litre at the pump

$600 per barrel = $7(Aus) at the pump.
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Unread postby EnergySpin » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 22:49:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ubercynicmeister', 'A')nd Oil just got to $64 (and a bit above) and there's STILL no clue in the Media...I wonder what they'll say when we top $100 per barrel?

The interesting thing is the prediction by oilcast was the best....what do they say about Matt Simmons prediction about Oil getting to $300 to $600 in Q4-2005 / Q1-2006?

I suppose the Oil price *might* come down after such a thing, but how high does Oil have to go before Demand Destruction kicks in?

BTW - under Australian conditions $300 per barrel = $4(Aus) per litre at the pump

$600 per barrel = $7(Aus) at the pump.

$300-$600 will be the end of it ... However at those price levels and with the depletion well under way, the oil producers will have an incentive to cut back the production to stretch their reserves longer ....
Lets see $300-$600 is about 5-10 times today's price. This would translate to $12.5-$25 per gal. (USA). As long as the cheap credit continues ... this will not be much of a problem. However at those levels, China, EU, Japan might get tempted to pull the plug off the US economy in order to devaluate the US$. OPEC might switch to a basket of currencies to offset their losses and suddenly all the cheap credit in the world would not be able to save the US economy. Even running the military would get prohibitively expensive. A controlled demand destruction triggered by the US (could be a simple tightening of the cheap credit extravaganza) is the only rational way to prevent this scneario from materializing.
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Unread postby No-Oil » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 12:03:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ubercynicmeister', 'A')nd Oil just got to $64 (and a bit above) and there's STILL no clue in the Media...I wonder what they'll say when we top $100 per barrel?


Simple, the answer from the press will be "XYZ Analyst say's that the price will top out soon & then drop back" What they won't say, is that 2this same analyst said that at $50, $60, $80 & now $100" because you wouldn't believe them !

Ever notice that they always speak to ANOTHER expert once the last one was proven wrong, even if the new one says the same thing as the last one, but because it's from a new face, then it must be NEWS !!!!

Don't hold out hope for any help from the Media, as there client base dwindle on the back of peak oil, they will be more & more entrenched to believe its not happening, right up to the point they go bust like every other business !

The BBC (only none commercial channel I know of) were 100% correct in their accessment of the UK Governments lies to get us involved in the Iraq invasion. They were screwed over by the Legal system & the Government & now they keep their mouths shut when anything dubious becomes news worthy. Basically they have lost their balls & the only true free news media in the world has now been silenced forever !
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Unread postby BabyPeanut » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 18:34:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('No-Oil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ubercynicmeister', 'A')nd Oil just got to $64 (and a bit above) and there's STILL no clue in the Media...I wonder what they'll say when we top $100 per barrel?


Simple, the answer from the press will be "XYZ Analyst say's that the price will top out soon & then drop back" What they won't say, is that 2this same analyst said that at $50, $60, $80 & now $100" because you wouldn't believe them !

Plus they will compare the price of Nyquil to oil to show you how cheap oil is (not that you use 20 gallons of nyquil a week like gasoline.) And they will tell you about the inflation-adjusted oil price crisis from 3000 BC where oil was effectively $5000/barrel (not that anybody used oil for anything back then.)
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Unread postby marko » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 18:51:22

I suspect that oil much above $80-100/barrel will bring on a recession that will lead to a collapse of the credit bubble (and the global economy).

It was oil prices at similar levels or lower, adjusted for inflation, that brought on the recessions of 1974 and 1981.

After the global economy collapses, oil prices will drop again. For a while.
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Unread postby lateStarter » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 19:30:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marko', 'I') suspect that oil much above $80-100/barrel will bring on a recession that will lead to a collapse of the credit bubble (and the global economy).

It was oil prices at similar levels or lower, adjusted for inflation, that brought on the recessions of 1974 and 1981.

After the global economy collapses, oil prices will drop again. For a while.


I agree, but of course at that time except for the talking heads and the all-knowing elites and the PTB, many of us (in the US) will be out of a job and looking for 'alternative' methods for maintaining some semblance of the 'non-negotiable' lifestyle that we are all entitled to :lol: ...

Knowing what I know now, I'm not sure that I have enough time left to prepare. I can't even imagine (or don't want to) what all those people are going to do when the lightbulb finally clicks on (or off)... huh?
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