[JudoCow09]

You argue that people who are optimistic are in denial while you guys are convinced that you guys have it right and there is no hope. Now you'll just say I'm in denial and need to get over it and realize the truth that we're all doomed to die a horrible flaming death. Death may happen. That is a reality. War is a reality, and starvation is a reality, but so is new sources of fuel. How could we survive for centuries and then just fail to live because our source of fuel has gone? People will live after PO even if some die because IT'S POSSIBLE. We didn't have oil when America was formed and we were succesful then. It's a matter of how people react to a problem that is 50/50. There is just as good a chance for something good to save us as there is for us to go back. If people go crazy, we're in trouble. But if we stay organized, we stand a great chance of survival.

[Blech]

Don't worry, the doomers are reacting against the surbaban mom mentality. Reality is most likely to be somewhere in between.

[Ludi]

Who are "we" and in what way are "we" "organised"?

I'm pessimistic because I don't see any evidence of a widescale effort to deal with the problems we're facing as a species right now - mainly environmental degradation/resource depletion. Those are two whopping problems, nobody is doing much about them.

I can talk (or post) myself blue in the face about practical actions we can take as individuals and as communities but it probably doesn't do much good. If I point out things are bad I'm a "doomer;" if I point out possible solutions I'm a "utopian." And this is in a venue where people are at least theoretically interested in the issue. Out in the big wide world, people just go "huh?"

[JudoCow09]

Since when did everyone attempt to deal with a problem before it was at hand? Fact is, once awareness of Peak Oil hits, every other scientist(not that many arent already working in that field) will be trying to solve the problem, and in theory, they have a great chance of doing that. Our knowledge doubles every so many years. Excuse the vaguness, but I did read(article, not crazy person's diary) that our knowledge double every so many years. it doesn't steadily increase but doubles. There is a solution to PO, it's a matter of when we find it, or in your minds, if.

[LadyRuby]

I think this board is dominated by pessimists. My theory is that a lot of people on this board are fairly pessimistic in general, and so particularly pessimistic about PO. Feel free to disagreed, pessimists.

I am pessimistic that we'll be able to avert a serious energy crisis, but also optimistic that when the masses do realize what a bind we're in that we'll work together, very hard, to save energy and also develop new systems. I don't think it will be a piece of cake with no hardships, but I don't think it will be the end of civilization.

[markam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is a solution to PO

[jato]

This is why I am pessimistic:



So instead of retiring at age 50, I will have to try and survive a die off due to peak oil/peak energy. I don't think any combination of "alternative fuels" can replace oil and natural gas (& eventually coal).

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'b')ut so is new sources of fuel. How could we survive for centuries and then just fail to live because our source of fuel has gone?

[americandream]

When you think of PO, think macro. In other words, do we have a resource to replace crude at all its usage levels to smoothly transition us to post peak continuity intact?

The answer is clearly no. We have perhaps expensive micro remedies, but nothing to replace the macro loss of crude. Hence, this system will not survive intact by any measure. Its post peak profile will be a shadow of its former self. This will have consequences on population numbers, resource conflicts and global dislocation as existing wants attempt to fit themselves into this new leaner order. That is an unfortunate reality we all need to come to terms with. Unfortunately, it is evident that ostrich head syndrome is rearing on the horizon.

[jtmorgan61]

I think it's because people are frustrated with the current culture and feel like something has to change and is going to change. My opinion is that the culture itself will shift, but many of them have chalked this feeling up to peak oil.

Once they've got the core commitment, they are looking for reasons to back it up without thoroughly exploring the possibilities. Hence things like Olduvai theory.

[RonMN]

I tend to think on the negative side because i see chit like stolen identities (as well as a multitude of other crimes)...do you think the situation will IMPROVE when people are going hungry???

IMHO i think quite the oppisite

[jato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')hink it's because people are frustrated with the current culture

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', 'b')ut also optimistic that when the masses do realize what a bind we're in that we'll work together, very hard, to save energy and also develop new systems. I don't think it will be a piece of cake with no hardships, but I don't think it will be the end of civilization.

[doufus]

I've come tothe conclusion that although PO is a physical fact at
some point, predicting the year is a nonsense. I analyse data for a living
and no-one in their right mind would take the "data" we have
and put their money on a calendar date for PO.

This "data" consists of outright OPEC distortions, huge fudge factors in even transparent and rigorous reserve estimations, varying geologies and unknown
history of how hard fields have been pushed and with what technologies.

Even if we had engineering quality data- defined, audited and cross checked- we would still have an error factor of 5-10 years at the best.

So, my recomenndation is to work to a sustainable future like getting
out of debt. Lower consumption. Look for work in regions where
human values exceed profit motive. Acquire the skills u think PO
might require (and why not?). But if you now abandon your situation
for a cabin in the woods with MREs and a rifle, you could be sitting
there for a while.

Be vigilant. Be skilled. Get a plan.

Most of all don't forget to live your life and have fun as well. Many
survivalists surrender their life to tomorrow and can't find the joy in
today.

[MicroHydro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', 'I')'ve come tothe conclusion that although PO is a physical fact at some point, predicting the year is a nonsense.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ost of all don't forget to live your life and have fun as well. Many
survivalists surrender their life to tomorrow and can't find the joy in
today.

[seb]

The optimistic view....
- What is you chance of winning the lottery?
- 50%!
- Why?
- You win or you lose, 2 possibilities...

[MonteQuest]

In my opinion, the doomers have "done their homework."

I have been involved in this for over 30 years. The numbers don't add up in our favor.

Peak oil is tomorrow in planning terms. And we need decades.

It all comes fown to energy density, scalability and time.

The rate and magnitude of decline is an unknown.

You can' t plan for an unknown.

And we haven't even started to plan.

You can't change horses in mid-stream if there is no fresh horse in sight.

That's why I am pessimistic.

[gego]

Considering that for almost the entire history of human population, our numbers have been below 1 billion. The very dramatic part of the increase to 6 billion came as a result tapping stored energy.

The current large population cannot likely exist without access to this store of energy or a reasonable substitute, so it is only logical to conclude that population numbers must fall as the energy stores are depleted, and they must fall to what history shows is sustainable.

This to me is the basis for being pesimistic for mankind over the next 50 years, starting with the peak.

[rs]

A book I am reading at the moment has some very interesting graphs at the beginning.

They plot population growth, decline in forests, species, topsoil, fossil fuel usage, water, weather and so on.

What is truly astonishing are the rates these graphs show over the last 150 years. We are heading to towards an abyss at breakneck speed. I think we'll still be accelerating when we go over the edge.