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new oil projects 90% sour, heavy or both?

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new oil projects 90% sour, heavy or both?

Unread postby Taskforce_Unity » Tue 01 Mar 2005, 11:01:25

I just read http://www.energybulletin.net/4559.html

New article by Simmons. At the bottom paragraph is says:

If any spare wellhead capacity still exists, it is for crude that is both heavy and sour. The refineries that are equipped to refine this type of crude are currently operating at 100% capacity. Compounding this problem is the fact that the world's light sweet crude supply is also in decline. Almost 90% of new oil projects produce oil that is either sour, heavy, or both.

Anyone who knows more about this? It's quite mindblowing that 90% of new oil projects are either sour or heavy or both.
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Unread postby marek » Tue 01 Mar 2005, 12:04:57

http://www.peakoil.com/gate.html?name=Forums&file=viewtopic&t=5397
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Re: new oil projects 90% sour, heavy or both?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 19 Jan 2026, 22:10:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Taskforce_Unity', 'I') just read http://www.energybulletin.net/4559.html

New article by Simmons. At the bottom paragraph is says:

If any spare wellhead capacity still exists, it is for crude that is both heavy and sour. The refineries that are equipped to refine this type of crude are currently operating at 100% capacity. Compounding this problem is the fact that the world's light sweet crude supply is also in decline. Almost 90% of new oil projects produce oil that is either sour, heavy, or both.

Anyone who knows more about this? It's quite mindblowing that 90% of new oil projects are either sour or heavy or both.


Mind blowing indeed because just about the time you wrote this, light sweet crude began a development phase that buried the US in so much of the stuff that it had to be exported. Light/sweet once went for a premium, for awhile, and these decades later, it might still sell at a discount depending on the assays that a refinery in looking for along the Gulf Coast. And you should be careful when presuming that an accountant (Simmons) knows much about oil in general. Simmons, knowing nothing about how to drill wells, thought that the Deep Water Horizon disaster well would need to be nuked to stop it. Instead, some folks who did what I once did, simply drilled a relief well into it, and killed it.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: new oil projects 90% sour, heavy or both?

Unread postby mousepad » Mon 19 Jan 2026, 22:38:51

you're digging up 20 year old posts? I wish I had your time.
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Re: new oil projects 90% sour, heavy or both?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 19 Jan 2026, 22:47:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', 'y')ou're digging up 20 year old posts? I wish I had your time.


This place was once about peak oil. Instead we are left with homophobes and parrots. So I thought....how have some of the ideas of yesterday stood up? Are they are really as silly as they were back then, or did some folks have more clues than others? So far....some folks seem to have no clues. The amazing thing? Some folks in the present don't even seem to realize that idiot peak oil posts today are even worse than 20 years ago because....folks with firing neurons are supposed to have learned along the way.

Quick question, if you were to dissemble your truck and turn it into some kind of catapult, using the engine, clutch, a lever like the drive shaft, and turn it into something similar to a poor man's trebuchets maybe, how high in the air could you launch, say, a 2 lb weight?

And I'm bored. POB is about the only site left, Dennis is as smart as they come but his sidekick Paul is just a really smart troll who can't assemble near the argument that Dennis can. And the format absolutely sucks. For searching, finding old threads and comments, all of it. No one is asking for professional work on this topic anymore, it has been so discredited, so I don't get to do any of it for work anymore.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: new oil projects 90% sour, heavy or both?

Unread postby mousepad » Tue 20 Jan 2026, 11:00:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Quick question, if you were to dissemble your truck and turn it into some kind of catapult, using the engine, clutch, a lever like the drive shaft, and turn it into something similar to a poor man's trebuchets maybe, how high in the air could you launch, say, a 2 lb weight?

My beautiful truck is vintage. Even says on the title category "classic car". I would never ever dream of such frivolous experiments.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')And I'm bored.

I see.

But once PO is reached for real, are you going to dig up same posts again to acknowledge their foresight?
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Re: new oil projects 90% sour, heavy or both?

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 20 Jan 2026, 22:48:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Quick question, if you were to dissemble your truck and turn it into some kind of catapult, using the engine, clutch, a lever like the drive shaft, and turn it into something similar to a poor man's trebuchets maybe, how high in the air could you launch, say, a 2 lb weight?

My beautiful truck is vintage. Even says on the title category "classic car". I would never ever dream of such frivolous experiments.


Come on, you are an engineer, I'm asking for a professionals opinion on what a clever one could dream up using those basic materials, and what kind of vertical speed you could generate capapulting a light load. Not to DO it.

And of course it is a frivilous experiment, but some folks spend millions of dollars to get a small load maybe 100' in the air. Could you do it with the various parts and pieces of your truck, with some baling wire and glue to hold a contraption together to give 2 lb's of relatively dense mass a significant velocity skyward?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')And I'm bored.

I see.

But once PO is reached for real, are you going to dig up same posts again to acknowledge their foresight?


What do you mean, "for real"? According to EIA IES data it was 2018. A real yawner if you haven't noticed. You've got fuel for the truck, right? Thought so. We're paying less than $2/gal in Colorado, what you got?

And what foresight? Peak oil is a given, the only question is when (and the most recent one has occurred....again...<sigh>) or whether or not the conditions that preceed it line up with the models built to predict it. Good ones I mean, not this ridiculous bell shaped curve nonsense.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: new oil projects 90% sour, heavy or both?

Unread postby mousepad » Wed 21 Jan 2026, 08:26:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')with some baling wire and glue to hold a contraption together to give 2 lb's of relatively dense mass a significant velocity skyward?

as long as I have WD-40 and duct-tape, I can do anything :-)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')What do you mean, "for real"? According to EIA IES data it was 2018. A real yawner if you haven't noticed. You've got fuel for the truck, right? Thought so. We're paying less than $2/gal in Colorado, what you got?

according to this 2024 was higher than 2018, but not by much
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/oil- ... =~OWID_WRL

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')And what foresight? Peak oil is a given, the only question is when

yes it's a given. The only thing up for debate are when and the consequences. You seem to be of the optimistic type, some (including me) more of the pessimist. I can only say, let's wait and see. Who knows, maybe the oil will decline in line with declining population and won't even be noticed as oil per capita stays put. Or all hell breaks lose as the yanks and chinks and others battle it out, or other energy source pick up the slack? Who knows. Not me, that's for sure.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
') (and the most recent one has occurred....again...<sigh>)

I don't like that term "most recent". You have to specify the timing window to make this statement useful. If I look at oil production on a "per second" basis, I'm sure I get many peaks even in a single days. If I look at it on a 500 year scale. I get probably one peak.
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Re: new oil projects 90% sour, heavy or both?

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 21 Jan 2026, 20:17:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')with some baling wire and glue to hold a contraption together to give 2 lb's of relatively dense mass a significant velocity skyward?

as long as I have WD-40 and duct-tape, I can do anything :-)


Excellent. So...how far with any or all of the parts of your truck and ducktape can you vertically chuck a couple pounds?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')What do you mean, "for real"? According to EIA IES data it was 2018. A real yawner if you haven't noticed. You've got fuel for the truck, right? Thought so. We're paying less than $2/gal in Colorado, what you got?

according to this 2024 was higher than 2018, but not by much
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/oil- ... =~OWID_WRL


Gail doesn't know any more about oil than Lucky does. She called 2008 peak oil with great certainty. She once argued about the horrors of high oil prices....and then shortly afterwards the horrors of low prices....and expected to be taken seriously. I've met the EIA folks and pounded on them on occasion, they at least know how to collect data and happen to be the only group that made a peak oil call some 20 years ago that hasn't been disproven yet by more oil.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')And what foresight? Peak oil is a given, the only question is when

yes it's a given. The only thing up for debate are when and the consequences.


YES! And it is terribly funny every time someone flings the "peak oil denier you!!" at me when it is perfectly obvious peak oil will occur, Hubbert explained why in the same paper where he got all his estimates wrong, and as far as consequences....haven't we seen them after some past peak oils? The global one in 1979 lasted like 13-14 years, how was your 80s, living post peak? And how have your last 8 years been, living post peak again?

I never noticed either myself, but some thinking folks might have noticed.....something....

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '
') You seem to be of the optimistic type, some (including me) more of the pessimist.


eh. Maybe. Maybe not. I was probably more of an optimist when younger. As far as peak oil, I'm old now, and having lived through a couple global peaks it just isn't all that important.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '
') I can only say, let's wait and see.


Indeed. Again.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't like that term "most recent". You have to specify the timing window to make this statement useful.

I did. EIA IES data, crude oil and lease condensate, 2018 larger than anything through 2024. Maybe we'll get another peak in 2025 when the data all gets added up?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '
')If I look at it on a 500 year scale. I get probably one peak.
You are just arguing that a peak happens based on the scale of the X-axis. Please. Try that on the homophobes, they'll fall for anything.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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