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THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 10 Jan 2026, 01:00:59

I think it’s obvious the value and importance of oil. It’s the lifeblood of the world.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 10 Jan 2026, 03:11:40

It's the lifeblood of the "Modern World." There are not a few cultures still that have no use for it, others that have little reliance on it. The further you move away from oil as a basis for a society though the more you are moved toward a subsistence economy. Most PeakOilers recognized this early on, that the 'Mad Max Doomsday scenario' was a outlier, not a given. We also realized (25 years ago) that governments wouldn't lift a finger to mitigate it because all governments in our western world exist at the whim of the wealthy elite, which now basically means the corporations and those that control them.

Those homeless camps, those hundreds of thousands living in their cars and couch surfing are basically in the subsistence economy. They glean food from charities, roam the streets for discarded bicycles and whatnot to fill their tents to pretend they are still a part of the oil economy around them. But they are barely in it at this point. Some of those buying rechargeable battery cars did it as a way to begin exiting the oil economy, but it was a feeble futile gesture. Go into the second World and below into the Third and their loss of access to oil becomes very obvious. minicab drivers out of business because they can't afford the fuel, small farms collapsing because they can't afford the fossil fuel based fertilizers.

Trump will be out of office in another year or so and the dull cow herd will vote in the fluoride party again. What was Biden's election slogan, "Time the heal?" or... time to heel. It will be back to open borders and feminist agendas and the collapse will accelerate once again. Not that Trump did anything masterful, he simply put a brake on the most egregious behavior for a while. Look behinds the scenes though and you'll see the pharmaceuticals and the military industrialists and the oil majors and the food corporations and the banking octopus all raking in the same profits as before. He's as much a slave to those entities as all the others. Two steps forward one step back. Or in this case, two steps away from the oil based economy and one step back.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 10 Jan 2026, 03:32:18

These are the questions I asked myself years ago.

How will I ensure future access to the foods I relish
How will I ensure I get the fuels I need, the lifestyle I want
How to ensure the basics like that my sewage and water supplies are reliable
How to protect my Money so as I don't end up in poverty like many now are. Even formerly wealthy people in many south american nations were suddenly wiped out by currency devaluations.

None of my list of requirements necessitated my moving to a remote doomstead as some foolishly have. That plan is basically a move back to subsistence living in the here and now. But it did require I move away from the city and all its deficiencies and dependencies. Cities are always the first to collapse into poverty and ruin, 5000 years of evidence attests to that! Broken infrastructure, crime, high food prices. And violent civil unrest. It was heartwarming to read about that lesbian radical who the Federal Agents shot to death in Minneapolis for using her car as a lethal weapon. Some are still prepared to stand up for order.

Image

Of course the Democratic feminists are all enraged!!

Image

In a word, Entitlement.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 10 Jan 2026, 03:44:09

I was over at another town this morning shopping and popped into the local markets, a craft market for the most part. There was guy there selling honey but he also had a case with Silver, and Gold, coins in it. I counted at least 3kg of Silver in ingots and large coins and there was about an ounce of Gold. A hell of a lot of money just sitting there in a little wooden case and I told him as much. It was for sale but he hardly ever sold any. Certainly not at today's prices. He said he was more about educating people as to the value of it and I told him emphatically NOT TO. I said they won't receive your message, they are all too stupid at this point, and all you are doing is exposing yourself as someone whose worth robbing. I told him to screw that case down to the table and keep the lid locked.

I doubt he was convinced, but if he ever does get targeted and robbed he'll only have himself to blame and he'll know it. Keeping a low profile about this stuff is more important that ever I believe.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 10 Jan 2026, 13:34:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'I') was over at another town this morning shopping and popped into the local markets, a craft market for the most part. There was guy there selling honey but he also had a case with Silver, and Gold, coins in it. I counted at least 3kg of Silver in ingots and large coins and there was about an ounce of Gold. A hell of a lot of money just sitting there in a little wooden case and I told him as much. It was for sale but he hardly ever sold any.


Figures. I'm worried if I ever wanted to turn mine into actual cash how easy that might be. There was an OUNCE of gold? A single Kruggerand....chump change. What, PM nutters like you consider that a hell of a lot of money? How much gold do you actually have? Just the stuff in your teeth?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 10 Jan 2026, 14:41:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'T')hese are the questions I asked myself years ago.

How will I ensure future access to the foods I relish
How will I ensure I get the fuels I need, the lifestyle I want
How to ensure the basics like that my sewage and water supplies are reliable
How to protect my Money so as I don't end up in poverty like many now are. Even formerly wealthy people in many south american nations were suddenly wiped out by currency devaluations.

None of my list of requirements necessitated my moving to a remote doomstead as some foolishly have. That plan is basically a move back to subsistence living in the here and now. But it did require I move away from the city and all its deficiencies and dependencies. Cities are always the first to collapse into poverty and ruin, 5000 years of evidence attests to that! Broken infrastructure, crime, high food prices. And violent civil unrest. It was heartwarming to read about that lesbian radical who the Federal Agents shot to death in Minneapolis for using her car as a lethal weapon. Some are still prepared to stand up for order.

Image

Of course the Democratic feminists are all enraged!!

Image

In a word, Entitlement.



Liberals are the lowest forms of humans.

So let me get this straight. Renee Good lost custody of her two children. Instead of fighting for them, she and her gay partner were fighting for violent foreign criminals to be allowed to stay in our country. I got it.

This is the left’s new hero. God help us.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 10 Jan 2026, 17:38:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')Liberals are the lowest forms of humans.
And what, in the world of people, makes one a "liberal"?

I could just as easily claim that "those people who fell for peak oil 20 years ago are retarded". I don't believe that to be entirely true though. Absolutes don't tend to work well outside the laws of physics or math, and even those can be bent on occasion.

While you are certainly some form of misguided science denier, I don't believe you are retarded. The victim of what passes for religious based training in Missouri perhaps, or their public schools (which are generally recognized as being poor), but attending those doesn't guarantee mental retardation.

Being a cager is worse than just being from Missouri, certainly.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')So let me get this straight. Renee Good lost custody of her two children. Instead of fighting for them, she and her gay partner were fighting for violent foreign criminals to be allowed to stay in our country. I got it.


Perhaps not. Trump hasn't been able to find many violent criminals, and instead has focused mostly on folks who just weren't born in the US and have some form of temporary paperwork to stay here while their shit gets worked out. They show up for their monthly/yearly immigration office visit and get snapped up and shipped out.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')This is the left’s new hero. God help us.


Not so much a hero as a victim of objecting to all those NON-violent criminals being arbitrarily picked up in the presence of someone who mistook her car, turning away from him at a slow speed, perhaps a walking speed, as a threat. You know....like when you are walking through the parking lot of the grocery back to your car, and someone comes into the lane headed in your general direction. I imagine in Missouri it is perfectly normal for the concelaed carry citizen faced with this situation to draw their firearm and pump a couple bullets in this dangerous crazy person...moving towards them at 3 mph.

Well...might sense to a science denier anyway.

Praise The Lord!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 10 Jan 2026, 20:09:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'L')iberals are the lowest forms of humans.

So let me get this straight. Renee Good lost custody of her two children. Instead of fighting for them, she and her gay partner were fighting for violent foreign criminals to be allowed to stay in our country. I got it. This is the left’s new hero. God help us.

She was a sexual pervert and an idiot and got rewarded in full. Homosexuality has always existed in the shadows but it was always illegal, there are only a few historical accounts of it being socially acceptable and those occurred at the corrupt end of Empires like Greece and Rome.

In cities all food comes via centralized warehouses to the supermarkets and from centralized fruit and veg markets to the smaller stores. Supermarket chains bypass this and have their own dry-foods, fruit and veg and meat warehouses. Rural supermarkets ship a lot up from the cities but they also have local meat and eggs and vegetables, local honey and nuts etc etc. All decentralized, all resilient. There was a truckers strike in England a decade and more back and after 3 days the supermarket chiefs went to Downing street and told the prime minister that if it didn't end they would be out of food by the end of the week. The government threatened to bring the army in and made a deal with the truckers. Cities are very vulnerable as well as being dangerous places to live. Full of degenerates and murderers.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 10 Jan 2026, 20:23:36

Saudi Arabia currently holds the largest gold reserves among all Arab countries

I was going through some old drives and came across the USA Gold posts on "Another". I remember reading these right back at the beginning and the guy was very prescient about the future price of Gold and it's relationship to oil, how the price was being manipulated to keep it low so A couple of Oil rich nations could buy it essentially out the back door of the LBMA. The deal was they would sell the oil at a low price as long as they got a certain amount of Gold at a low price, along with the paper dollars they were being paid.

I wonder if anyone here ever read those posts? My favorite quote was
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;Think now, if you are a person of "great worth" is it not better to acquire gold over years, at better prices? If you are one of "small worth", can you not follow in the footsteps of giants? I tell you, it is an easy path to follow!" --ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) 1/10/98

It certainly was an easy path 8)

From 1997
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;If ANOTHER's claims are true -- that a consortium of oil states has cornered the gold market (and given the impressive circumstantial evidence, this could very well be the case) -- these "footsteps of giants" become the most salient and persuasive case for gold ownership I have seen in the past decade, if not the full twenty-eight years I have been in the gold business." -- Michael J. Kosares, president of Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.; author of The ABCs of Gold Investing

When the once highly secretive London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) -- its venerable membership comprising the world's largest gold dealers -- published its daily clearing volume for the first time in January 1997, it rocked the tight-knit world of international gold traders and analysts.

According to this first of many subsequent LBMA press releases, thirteen hundred tonnes of gold (representing more than 50% of the world's annual mine production) changed hands daily in this fog-shrouded center of the global gold market. This figure represented over $10 billion per day and $4 trillion per year in bullion banking activity!

The gold market had always stood in austere, quiet contrast to the highly charged, mega-volume world of stocks and bonds. Now this first LBMA report forced analysts, investors, and brokers to reassess their understandings of the gold market. While some revelled in the glow of the large LBMA numbers, others began to raise some very important and rather unsettling questions. First, Why was this much gold on the move? Second, Where was all this gold going? And third, Where was all this gold coming from?

Then, in October of 1997 at the internet's only gold discussion forum of the day (hosted by Kitco), a series of remarkable postings began appearing under the pseudonym "ANOTHER", offering plausible answers to those questions. What followed in a seemingly incongruous stream of thought over many months was, in the fullness of time, seen to blend into a logical whole by many astute readers following the complete text. If you are not similarly moved to at least reassess your own view of the international financial scene after reading what's revealed below, then you are either firmly entrenched in your world view, or you've been numbed by too many hours of Wall Street's cheerleader (CNBC) and too many Friday nights with Louis Ruykeyser.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the final analysis, ANOTHER offers one of the more plausible hypotheses for why the financial markets have acted as they have in the past few years, and therein lies his immense value to the reader, no matter who he is. Again, knowledge as is conveyed in his series of "THOUGHTS!" is rarely to be found outside the highest levels of international finance, and is seldom to be seen bandied about on the front pages of The Wall Street Journal or your favorite financial newsletter.

As explained by ANOTHER, an opportunistic arrangement for massive physical gold acquisition among important petroleum producing and exporting nations could be comfortably facilitated within these astronomical trading volumes now being publicly revealed via the LBMA. For the oil states this meant receiving real money (as opposed to government-sponsored paper) in payment for their depleting oil reserves. For the industrialized countries, this meant a continuing supply of cheap oil to fuel the economic boom already in progress. These transactions were to be cleared through the bustling London gold market. Up until late 1996, the volumes were a tightly kept secret so "the deal" proceeded without the knowledge of the general public.

When the LBMA went public with its figures, it raised the shroud off "the deal." But by then, according to ANOTHER, it no longer mattered. The oil states had already (almost inadvertently) cornered the gold market. As implied by ANOTHER's own words, his motivation for these postings was the discovery by "big traders" in the Far East of this opportune facility to buy gold at ever lower prices. Their subsequent heavy purchases of physical gold upset the delicate balance. Now there was no longer a reason to keep it secret, and hence, the revelation of this extraordinary tale.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 11 Jan 2026, 01:08:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'L')iberals are the lowest forms of humans.

So let me get this straight. Renee Good lost custody of her two children. Instead of fighting for them, she and her gay partner were fighting for violent foreign criminals to be allowed to stay in our country. I got it. This is the left’s new hero. God help us.

She was a sexual pervert and an idiot and got rewarded in full.


Great. So the village idiots are also homophobes. Figures. I'm American, which means people are free to be themselves unless there is a law against it.....so Armie can be a ignorant science denier and Lucky a neoNazi and gay folks are allowed to be gay.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 11 Jan 2026, 07:18:18

The funny thing is, the populations of the Western world could have easily bought up all the Gold and all the Silver ever mined, if they had simply applied the "Diversification" rule to their life savings and committed a mere 5% or so of their money there. All that money wealth in average pay packets from 1970 onward. But they didn't! The TV steered them away from bullion into paper, the touted Diversification rule was anything but! It was just another meme by Wall Street and the pension funds to sell the masses paper/digital tripe. Tripe starts out as useful food you know, then it turns, then you feed the slop to the Hogs. But a lot of useful food is grown for that specific purpose so it's really tripe from the outset.

In the depths of the Global Financial Crises, the GFC, our own Prime Minister came on the TV and reassured the people. That was after the average private pension had fallen nearly 50% in value. He spoke about "Diversification", which was a joke, since all the boats had fallen on the out-rushing tide. I saw that speech, there was no meat to it, no specifics, which is typical of politicians. Now if the global markets can drop 50% overnight, they can do it again, or drop 60 or 70% or more. Gold and Silver are more critical now than ever but the dull cow masses never wake up. And just as well, because the price of bullion would be much higher today and I wouldn't have but a fraction of what I now hodl. Thank God for the stupidity of the masses.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 11 Jan 2026, 20:11:27

Markets open here now, Silver and Gold off like rockets. Ag, US$ 81.5
With the G/S ratio so out of whack for so long Silver was always going to be the best asset to buy for making money. I say 'buy' in the past tense, buying it now is like buying BTC in Jan 2024. You might double your money, but you're coming in very late in the game.

I'm pretty sure big gains are a thing of the past, that is big gains across the board for lots of people like we have seen since the 1970 switch to a global bubble economy. Markets are not meant to go up double digits per annum while wages stagnate and unemployment increases.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 11 Jan 2026, 23:37:07

I think we’ll see $125 silver by mid year
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 12 Jan 2026, 03:20:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I') think we’ll see $125 silver by mid year

Yes... Well we already have that here in Oz dollars. Funny thing is, back in 2005 Silver was $7 both here and over there. The $au was very strong compared to the $US and at one point was 1:1 I was buying a lot of tools and technology equipment from the states at that point and even some of the currency. Shipping was cheap back then too and irrelevant in transactions. Back then I was buying Gold for $550/oz, it's $6800 today.

I'd like to see an update on the Hubbert curve to see where we are but unfortunately the BS American Fracking scam has muddied the waters a lot. It's not like that oil comes out off the ground by itself or even with the aid of a few simple pumps, it takes enormous expenditures of Oil itself (heavy oil Diesel) to extract the light oil. Mountains of refined sand, untold amounts of expensive chemicals, and thousands and thousands of drill pads that produce at best for a couple of years. EROI or EROEI is about 2:1 or less on the average field. Then you have to ship it out by truck or Diesel train :roll:

The deniers discredit EROI now because the figures for shale are so low but they are basic financial accounting for oil fields and always have been. Before all the shell games started PeakOil meant the peak of conventional oil, the oil that gave us the amazing buildout of the 20th century. What we have now builds nothing, it can barely repay the interest on the loans. Everything was cheap because Oil was cheap, now everything is going through the roof.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he considerable uncertainty surrounding the technological characterization, resource characterization, and choice of the system boundary for oil shale operations indicate that oil shale is only a minor net energy producer if one includes internal energy (energy in the shale that is used during the process) as an energy cost. The energy return on investment (EROI) for either of these methods is roughly 1.5:1 for the final fuel product.
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/3/11/2307
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 12 Jan 2026, 11:46:45

$85
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 13 Jan 2026, 10:54:13

$90 today?
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 13 Jan 2026, 20:29:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '$')90 today?

No stopping it it seems... Will have to be a correction though. My opinion is this is very similar to the runup pre-GFC and the paper markets are poised for it, right on the money for the 18 year housing and business market cycle crash. I don't like the idea of financial crashes but at the same time I have never been negatively effected by one.

If I sell a some slabs now and leave it as cash I'll have covered inflation losses on cash for the next few years and negated any correction that may be in the wind. Has to be done I suppose. Kilo bars are selling for over $4000 down here, I wouldn't part with any of the old 100 ouncers, they have a nice patina 8)

One thing though, the typical dealer spread between buy and sell has widened, A LOT. 16% now

-Spot $4250/kg
-Buy $4790
-Sell $4049

Their commission/cut off buying what I'm selling is 4.7%. That's higher than a month back.
But they are making 12% off sales, must be good sales to have pushed it that high...
Traditionally it's like 7%, 7%. Or 6%, 6%.
Last edited by theluckycountry on Tue 13 Jan 2026, 21:07:03, edited 1 time in total.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 13 Jan 2026, 21:05:33

92% Of Employed Americans Have Cut Back On Spending As The Standard Of Living In The US Crumbles
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')ust look at how much you are paying for electricity compared to five years ago. ...food compared to five years ago ...Housing costs ...It isn’t just a coincidence that so many people are bitterly complaining about the cost of living these days.

Of course it isn’t an accident that this has happened. Our politicians have borrowed and spent 28 trillion dollars that we did not have since Barack Obama first entered the White House in January 2009, and I warned that all of this money would create rampant inflation. On top of that, the Federal Reserve has pumped trillions of dollars that were created out of thin air into the financial system since 2008.

Our standard of living is crumbling right in front of our eyes

https://www.newsweek.com/americans-usin ... s-11333861
https://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/92- ... -crumbles/

They should have lived within their means!
They should have never taken on Credit cards!
And they should have invested in Gold and Silver.

Should Should Should, the baby boomers are Big on "they should do this and they should do that" rhetoric but they never applied their cynicism to their own lives. I'm singling out the Boomers because they are the ones who are really being screwed by all this. They are at retirement age and have no options, the younger generations do it tough but they have options and resilience. What resilience does the average old man sitting in his lounge chair on a pension have?

Image
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 14 Jan 2026, 00:02:47

Just broke $90
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 14 Jan 2026, 06:01:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his week, while trying to understand why the American middle class feels poorer each year despite healthy GDP growth and low unemployment, I came across a sentence buried in a research paper:

“The U.S. poverty line is calculated as three times the cost of a minimum food diet in 1963, adjusted for inflation.” I read it again. Three times the minimum food budget. I felt sick.

The Measurement Failure

The formula was developed by Mollie Orshansky, an economist at the Social Security Administration. In 1963, she observed that families spent roughly one-third of their income on groceries. Since pricing data was hard to come by for many items, e.g. housing, if you could calculate a minimum adequate food budget at the grocery store, you could multiply by three and establish a poverty line.

...She was drawing a floor. A line below which families were clearly in crisis.

For 1963, that floor made sense. Housing was relatively cheap. Healthcare was provided by employers and cost relatively little. Childcare didn’t really exist as a market—mothers stayed home. Cars were affordable, if prone to breakdowns. Orshansky’s food-times-three formula was crude, but as a crisis threshold—a measure of “too little”—it roughly corresponded to reality.
https://www.yesigiveafig.com/p/part-1-my-life-is-a-lie

But today, it's meaningless!
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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