[AdamB]

Chinese peak oil demand...strikes!! Maybe.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The world's top oil importer, China, could be just years away from its own peak in domestic demand for oil products, Chinese refiners have started to warn, but consumer preferences and government policies about transport electrification and support for EVs are likely to determine whether Chinese domestic oil consumption will peak around 2025.

[AdamB]

Pandemic and the end of oil

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he pandemic-related drop in oil demand in 2020 has led a number of analysts to argue that the
peak in global oil demand is much more certain and imminent than previously anticipated. Here the
thinking is that progress underway in the electric utility sector replacing coal with lower carbon emitting
natural gas and renewable fuels (still quite low on a global scale) can be replicated in the transportation
sector.

[AdamB]

When will oil demand peak? It depends on who you ask.

Fitch Solutions, for example, doesn’t see oil demand peaking within its forecast period, which runs to 2032, according to Emma Richards, an associate director of oil and gas at the company.

When will oil demand peak?

[theluckycountry]

I think 'consumer' demand peaked a long time ago. When will renewable technology demand peak? When will mining demand peak? When will pharmaceutical and the plastics industries demands peak? When will global transport demand peak? How much food and minerals and manufactured product is shipped across the globe at great expense when it could as easily be made locally, that is the problem as much as cars going to the mall or the beach.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Spanktron9', 'F')irst of all, thank you to this community for a reasoned (usually) discourse on this most important topic.

I have been reading, studying, lurking on this and other boards for some time, but have yet to come up with a clear answer when I explain the fundamentals of supply/demand to people with regards to peak oil. The question I get is- "If we are using 86 million barrels, and we are only producing 85 million, who is going without oil?"

Am I correct in answering a combination of:
1) Stockpile depletion
2) Demand destruction
3) Shortages and brownouts in various locales around the world

[theluckycountry]

Trump Imposes 25% Tariff On Imported Heavy Trucks Starting Oct. 1
That should help things along! A rational step in demand destruction. Lets see how it effects Amazon sales.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '[')b]Trump Imposes 25% Tariff On Imported Heavy Trucks Starting Oct. 1

[theluckycountry]

What Is the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ariff Act of 1930 raised U.S. import duties with the goal of protecting American farmers and businesses from foreign competition. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act is now widely blamed for worsening the severity of the Great Depression in the U.S. and around the world.

Key Takeaways

The Smoot-Hawley Act was created to protect U.S. farmers and businesses from foreign competitors.
The Smoot-Hawley Act increased tariffs on foreign imports to the U.S. by about 20%. Over 25 countries responded by increasing their own tariffs on American goods.
Global trade plummeted, contributing to the ill effects of the Great Depression.
More than 1,000 economists urged President Hoover to veto it.
Hoover's successor, President Franklin D. Roosevelt, worked to reduce tariffs and was given more authority to negotiate with heads of state under the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 1934.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')This is my typical breakfast, if I choose to eat one. What's yours?

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')This is my typical breakfast, if I choose to eat one. What's yours?

[theluckycountry]

Goldman Maps Out Power Bill Crisis As Afford Concerns Stay Localized

This should slap some demand down I would think.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he power bill crisis has gone mainstream in recent months, with soaring electricity prices epicentered across the Mid-Atlantic region. Legacy grids and misguided "green" energy policies have been colliding with surging new power demand from AI data centers. A new report from Goldman Sachs, led by analyst Carly Davenport, sheds light on the surge in electricity costs sweeping across key U.S. regions, particularly the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and California, where affordability concerns are soaring just as utilities begin a historic capital-investment cycle. The situation has all the ingredients for a political reckoning: years of grid mismanagement under far-left leadership, which prioritized climate change ideology over reliability and aggressively retired stable fossil-fuel generation, have become a key driver of today's affordability crisis.

[Newfie]

Thats a baloney blame article. Climate has little to nothing to do wirh rhe grid problems. This has been festering for decades.

It has more to do with privatizing and having many companies which all need to cooperate to make the grid work. If you want to screw something you higeit to a committee.

Some things are best operated by a regulated monopoly, a natural monopoly. Like our interstate highway system has oversight by the DOT. Better the FAA manages air travel. Can you imagine air travel if the routes were negotiated by committee?

Decades ago the state of the grid, high tension transmission, was recognized as a national crisis. Congress passed legislation authorizing the seizure of power line rights of way by right of public domaine. but it has never been used because the power companies have not invested in the infrastructure, preferring to maximize profits.

What would really help would be a nation wide HV DC grid which would go a long way to improve available power (greater efficiency) while decoupling the various generating plants.

[theluckycountry]

It's the end of the age of oil, the end of the industrial age, the end of business as usual and the end of national electricity networks. The lights are slowing going out all over the world, nothing can stop the process.

Some pockets of illumination will continue in the multi-decades ahead, wealthy enclaves, Homes with solar and onsite batteries, priority government and military facilities, but eventually most will go dark too. As goes the oil, so goes everything built with it.

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', ' ')The lights are slowing going out all over the world, nothing can stop the process.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', ' ')The lights are slowing going out all over the world, nothing can stop the process.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', 'a')nd yet, electricity production climbs and climbs with no end in sight.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', 'a')nd yet, electricity production climbs and climbs with no end in sight.

[theluckycountry]

The centrally planned Covid shutdowns went a long way to destroy demand, not just in the fact that supply chains were disrupted, factories closed, but also because it made people poorer. The inflation since then has only added to this poverty effect, very few of us are able to simply buy what we want as before, certainly Very few who can do it from their own financial income and stores of wealth as apposed to taking on MORE debt.

Location matters like never before. Now is not the era to be living in a violent nation on the brink of economic collapse.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')Location matters like never before.