[AdamB]

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 23
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')ost by Armageddon » Tue 17 May 2022, 17:22:18
Armageddon wrote:
Crude -2.445MM
Gasoline -5.102MM
Cushing -3.071MM
Distillates +1.075MM
Ouch

[theluckycountry]

How out of touch with reality is the US stock market? As I have pointed out here often, Australia is the yardstick you measure reality by, it's not gone insane. Here our economy has been booming, sure there is inflation, but corporations have been doing well across all sectors. Our market, the ASX200 was up around 7000 pre-GFC, then it lost half it's value, just like the US Dow did. It bounced back from that low of 3400 and has climbed steadily ever since, with one big dip around covid. What is it today? 8000, only about 1000 above what it was 17 years ago.

And there is nothing wrong with that either. In the age of PeakOil the pressure is on and gains are not easy to make. Plus there was a long period in there with no inflation, which adds to the slow growth. There is no comparison between the ASX to the bubble US markets. Us markets are driven by the financial economy, it's all they have left. Paper shuffling. To say it's ripe for a crash is an understatement. Just look at Tesla! It's $425 a share now, it was $400 at the peak of the Battcar mania, then it slumped as the the fundamentals of Tesla started to go down the toilet, but then it rose, consistently. It's been climbing for over a year and is about to surpass it's all time high. But earnings have halved now, the company is dead on it's feet. So what they hell is going on?

To suggest the savvy investors are bidding up because of the Robot promises would be incorrect, as that's a relatively new addition to the marketing hype. No it's simply being bid up by the shares shuffling back and forth between big holders. The FED itself might be working to backstop it for all we know? The President's working group on markets. Certainly it's with the "in crowd" as far as the AI bubble goes but aside from all that the valuations are ridiculous from any long term rational perspective. Like when people want to access their retirement savings in 10 years. The US markets are in (mild) exponential growth, but the companies fortunes, their sales, are not. The period from 2004 to the GFC saw similar growth, but not as steep. This bubble curve began around 2016 and is not giving way despite all the intractable woes, the Massive overall debt burden all the corporations are carrying for one.

In the years leading up to the GFC I was listening to podcasts and reading articles from (not the mainstream) and they convinced me a crash was coming. It took a couple of years, but I was OUT of the paper markets and IN Physical Gold and Silver. When the crash finally came everyone was gobsmacked, how could this happen! Well it's going to happen again, and as always, they don't ring a bell at the top. I could have gone back in at the lows, or even during the recovery, but I was OVER the BS paper markets by then and the profits I was accruing in Gold were more than enough. In fact the profits I had already made by 2008 eclipsed the Paper gains in the stock market at it's peak. And since then the appreciation of Gold over the ASX capital gains and dividends has been astonishing! Gold here has gone from $1400 odd in 2010 to $5500 today. And I wouldn't mind betting that Gold gains in $US over there has outpaced even the frenetic stock gains (on average). No one pays dividends there aside from the likes of Caterpillar so forget them. CAT's div yield = 1.33% laughable.

The trigger for the GFC was said to have been the collapse of bear sterns and some insurance company I can't recall the name of. Later it was blamed on the collapse of the US housing bubble. Now we have Tesla with a market cap of 1.3 Trillion, and Nvidea with double that, what if one of them collapsed? What was bear sterns market cap before it's collapse? 25 Billion. If you're in these paper markets your sitting on a crate of Semtex.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')In the years leading up to the GFC I was listening to podcasts and reading articles from (not the mainstream) and they convinced me a crash was coming.

[Armageddon]

Not sure the stock market will crash any time soon when they are adding 2+T of debt annually. That money has to flow somewhere. Govt tax receipts are heavily dependent on it too.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'N')ot sure the stock market will crash any time soon when they are adding 2+T of debt annually.

[theluckycountry]

The American stock market be like a toy rocket launch, like the picture down below. It goes up and up until it runs out of oomph, and then it rolls over and falls back down. The higher it goes the further it will have to fall. It will run out of oomph one day soon and fall back down, we just don't know which day. We don't know, but the smart people who launched it do know. Warren Buffett is a smart people.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')

[Armageddon]

They will try to inflate their way out of this. This is make the stock market and GDP look great. It will also lower the deficit because tax receipts will explode. Meanwhile, the middle and lower classes will keep getting decimated.

What’s their other option? Default? Never happen.

[theluckycountry]

A stock market crash has many advantages, it can take a lot of the froth out of things and clear the market place of a lot of useless companies. 2008 was an orchestrated crash, obviously. But it was a good cover for the collapse of US housing prices (And PeakOil). Blame it all on the market, that's what everyone did. And the oil price fell because consumption fell. 2nd world countries can hyper-inflate all they like, but the world's reserve currency? I know of no example of that happening. They usually go out with a war of global proportions. In wartime you can default on debt, in wartime you can institute austerity measures.

Let's face it, the US Debt is mostly held by the US itself. In the social security trust etc etc. So what are you actually defaulting on? The lifestyles of your citizens is all.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/who- ... 025-02-10/
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Owner
Holding size (U.S. dollars) (as of February)

U.S. investors and other U.S. holders $19.7 trillion
U.S. Federal Reserve system $4.7 trillion
Social Security and other U.S. agencies $2.4 trillion
Foreign investors $8.7 trillion.

And who are the foreign holders? Allies for the most part.
Japan, Britain, Luxembourg, Cayman Islands, Canada, Belgium, Ireland, France, Switzerland

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'T')hey will try to inflate their way out of this.

[theluckycountry]

When the crash comes all those people with money in mutual funds and IRA's etc will lose a large proportion of it, probably forever. That's Ok though as they didn't really deserve it. It's not like they actually worked hard all their lives, most spent their days sitting on their arses talking on the phone or pushing mice across a screen. Arrogant in the extreme for them to think they should have ongoing rewards for a life spent doing that!

The future rewards those that actually thought these matters through, not those that just followed the advice of a talking head on TV.

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'W')hen the crash comes all those people with money in mutual funds and IRA's etc will lose a large proportion of it, probably forever. That's Ok though as they didn't really deserve it. It's not like they actually worked hard all their lives, most spent their days sitting on their arses talking on the phone or pushing mice across a screen. Arrogant in the extreme for them to think they should have ongoing rewards for a life spent doing that!

The future rewards those that actually thought these matters through, not those that just followed the advice of a talking head on TV.

[theluckycountry]

Wall Street Shock: S&P 500 Crashes Most in 6 Months After Trump’s Tariff Threat On China

It's playing out just like in the 1930's. The tariffs are the nail in the coffin.
Our 1929 moment was 2008 with the GFC. 50% and more wiped off markets across the board. Then the recovery, on steroids this time because there was no Gold standard to limit printing.

[Armageddon]

Unless we are entering a monetary reset, They wont let the markets crash. Tax receipts are too dependent on it. That would crater the deficit even further.

[theluckycountry]

I doubt they are worried about taxes anymore, they pay a Trillion a year in interest on the federal debt, and are borrowing exponentially into the face of an Empire shift.
Besides, it's not the government that decides when the crash happens, that's the PigMen. With the crash they get to clean up on all the physical assets just like in the 1930's. Take over all the indebted industry, all the indebted farmland and half the residential houses in the nation. People will basically become renters in their own homes no doubt.

It's no coincidence that the US federal reserve was instituted when it was. That was the beginning of the transition from the British Empire to the American one. The control of the money supply was then in the hands of the european PigMen and they had the nation by the balls. No American cares to admit it, or even consider it, but all the evidence is there. Big European banker families, dating back to the Portuguese banking houses and the early English and German banking houses.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'U')nless we are entering a monetary reset, They wont let the markets crash. Tax receipts are too dependent on it. That would crater the deficit even further.

[theluckycountry]

The 18-Year Economic Cycle

2008 + 18 years = 2026

It's mostly based on houses, and houses as we know are really the Lions share of wealth, certainty for the average man in the street, certainly as far as the private debt burden is concerned. But the downturn, like in 2006~2007, triggers a general collapse. Did you know house prices were falling through much of the latter 1910's? A BIG collapse, then they bumped along leading up to the crash. That was a different era and most people weren't in the stock market.

Schiller Home Price Index


https://www.begintoinvest.com/financial ... martcamera

I believe the PTB have been tinkering very actively with this cycle, trying to offset it, manipulate it, ideally to eradicate it and it's consequences but that's impossible. In an obvious way the Federal Reserve banking cartel has the power to create money and paper over 'upsets' but the global financial crisis and it's fallout suggest they they are not entirely efficient at the process.

There is another way of course, to allow these malinvestment bubbles in housing and shares to build and build and then to actively trigger a collapse at a suitable time. What do I mean by suitable? Well when it suits the big capitalists of course. Big money, Buffett, gates, and 1000 more behind the scenes who never come to mention are the ones who ultimately would want protection. Have you ever been given the heads up by an insider, say a friend in a large retail store that told you to "hang off for a couple of weeks because the new stock is coming in and you'll get these at a big discount!" I have, in motorcycle shops. If they are a good enough friend they may even take your size off the rack and put it aside, reserving it just for you.

This sort of thing happens all the way up and down the food chain. I remember the hundreds of billions the likes of Buffet and Gates rolled into their "private" foundation back a year or so before the GFC. They sold untold shares into the market but the market wasn't spooked because the TV told everyone they were just being all charitable, giving up their excess wealth to help little kids in Africa. This is how it works, they knew a crash was coming, got the heads up.

It's easy to instigate a crash too, you sell off a lot of what you have leading into the top, as Warren Buffet has done over the past year, and then at the appropriate time you begin to Panic sell the rest. The media runs with it and down comes the market. Back in the bottom of the GFC Buffet was very active buying bank shares etc, one of the worst hit sectors. It was all very public, wise old Buffet does it again, the myth reinforced. Of course he got very favorable terms with those shares and options to buy more later at the lower price. Nobody lost money but the people who didn't matter, the little people, through their pension funds. The 18 year cycle is no myth, it's just a statistical pattern based on Debt burdens and Exuberance, Interest rates and liquidity.

Through the magic of private pensions, 90% or more probably of the retirement wealth of the world is now stuffed into these paper assets. Good luck with that, I hope you have an insider friend to give you the heads up on when to sell.

Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it.

[theluckycountry]

You have to know your history, have to know the facts or even seemingly innocuous sites will lead you astray. Consider this story in light of the Schiller chart above.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he 1920s: The Housing Boom and Bust

Several factors contributed to the 1920s housing boom and bust. Rising incomes and improved credit availability led to more people buying homes, which drove up prices.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '[')b]The 18-Year Economic Cycle

[theluckycountry]

Buffett and fellow investment managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler have been net sellers of stocks in 12 straight quarters, with sales totaling $184 billion during that period. 4 nov 2025

The Oracle of Omahahahaha

Why are billionaires selling their stocks?
No investors, let alone billionaires, will want to own stocks with falling profit margins and shrinking dividends. So if that's why Buffett, Paulson, and Soros are dumping stocks, they have decided to cash out early and leave Main Street investors holding the bag.

40% of the US stock market is in retirement funds
The shift from <5% to ~40% is driven by a decline in pensions and a shift towards fully funded retirement accounts (401ks and the like)

Why did pensions decline? Because the stock market is a rigged casino. Doubling down as they have done is just more money for the house. And don't forget, any shares you own outside of these institutions are not your legal property, they are the legal property of the brokerage houses that HOLD them. You are what's called a beneficiary, which means if the market goes tits up and brokerages decide, or the government instructs them, not to sell, then you cannot sell, Period! They can also chooses, in your interest, to sell them off cheaply and take their commissions (and invariably their kickbacks), leaving you the scraps.

Bag Holders is all you are. From your dabbling with Strategy and Tesla to your supposedly safe 401k.