by Free » Mon 17 Oct 2005, 16:33:06
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', 'Y')our logic is nonsense. What he said is perfectly true and equally valid even if he has no idea of PO. This studying of tea leaves and projecting your opinion onto them is just stunningly stupid, but is repeated by people like you tirelessly.
The fact that the US intends to go after dwindling resources proves that they don't "know about PO". Why raid an empty store? If they "know about PO", they would say sod it to trying to invade countries half way round the world and inviting terror. If they "know about PO" then they would put their efforts into developing alternative resources. The USA could then become energy independent and with their resources world leaders. They have plenty of room for solar, wind, and the skills to develop nuclear. PO is a long term problem. If you are aware of it, you don't embark on costly short term measures that get you nowhere in the long term.
So the USA grabs all the oil. That means other countries collapse or have to develop alternatives. Then when oil runs out, the USA is left holding an empty barrel, and then has to play catch up, or is world leader of a global collapse. The USA runs out shortly after everyone else does. Great! For anyone smart enough to understand PO, this is just a f**ked up strategy.
The fact is that the US leaders do not get PO, and are acting as though they don't.
I totally agree with you with the conclusion that it is the wrong strategy to put all efforts of a nation into a hopeless adventure for securing resources when it would be much better to try to get energy-independent and invest massively in this enterprise, certainly in the long term.
However, who said that politicians always made the right decision? Or that, from their own perspective, they even have the choice? Put yourself in the shoes of a leader who has to go before the electorate and say:
"I am sorry to say from today on your life will end as you know it. We will all work in this together to make the transition as painless at possible, but it must be clear that that everybody has to make sacrifices"
And that without "evidence" to see for all the people that PO is real!
And a nation is not like some beach-buggy, just turn the wheel to go where you want! It's more like a super-tanker which takes ages to turn around let alone to stop it! Vis inertiae.
And who says the store shelfs are empty? They are quite full, there is just not enough there for everybody, so in the short term it's perfectly logical to rob the store.
Yes I am guilty as charged, I am reading tea leaves, but isn't that what we all do? Maybe I didn't make it clear enough how I came to my conclusion, I interpret this diplomacy-speak like this:
The access to resources is a matter of survival for many nations (for the US as well, obviously)
The US will do what is necessary to survive (even if this includes war - nobrainer)
The supply is limited, demand is rising (i.e. Peak oil - he is not buying the economy-magic of more supply with more demand, it's not important if he knows the details, he knows enough to see the consequences), ergo there is not enough for everybody.
Conflicts will arise. (Of course he says first there must be an effort to come to a peaceful agreement, but come on, Kissinger knows history better than most of us, how often has this been the case?)
The US (and every other nation) will do whatever it takes to prevail in this conflicts to secure their access to the resources.
What's so illogical about that? Yes maybe he doesn't get Peak Oil in the long term consequences, but he knows that it's a problem, and sees the solution in resource-grabbing (or, alledgedly rationing, i.e. sharing with other nations, but come on...). If this is the wrong solution, so what?