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THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby Armageddon » Mon 01 Sep 2025, 11:34:13

You sound like a dork to me. I’m more of the athletic type. I was more of the going to parties, chasing girls and playing sports type. You sound like you stayed after school and played chess talked physics with your dork friends.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Mon 01 Sep 2025, 12:50:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'Y')ou sound like a dork to me.

But of course I do! In your world, your experience, your work life, anyone who knows stuff that seems all...academic and all....must be a dork! And to some extent, you are right. I am a dork! What else is a working man such as yourself supposed to think a scientist is? Some tooty fruity weird...dork!

There is no shame in learning though Armie, be it how to fit pipes better and faster, or build a house faster, or debug a HVAC issue. But for some reason working folks who don't understand why theory matters on topics that don't appear relevant to their lives....they think the smart folks must be dorks! Don't ask me why. I don't think it is just working folk, I was being called a dork by 8th grade because math came so easy to me that the teachers just ignored me, I could be asleep in the back of the room and they'd call on me and I'd wake up, yawn, give them the right answer and go back to napping.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')I’m more of the athletic type.

Really? I left high school with 1 cross country record, 2 track records, and won every cross country race I ran in my junior year. The cross country course record was mine for 15 years after I left. In track I wasn't allowed to race in the freshman/sophomore only meets because I was already winning the mile and 2-mile races against all comers. When the school instituted its athletic hall of fame I was in it. They invited me to come and give speeches and whatnot but shit, it was high school, the accolades from college I don't mind but high school? I believe in my senior year in high school you could find 1 or 2 faster 2-milers in the state...but you couldn't find 3. My freshman year in college I earned the title "Fastest Freshman In Conference XXXXX' and then quit running after that because I was done with running. Had found motorcycles instead. YEAH BABY! Gained 50# and began a life doing other things our local parrot can only dream of.

Image

But this is just athletic stuff for dorks, right? That private school though, that was challenging because they could accelerate you right into API courses by your sophomore year if you were ready for it. That was where learning suddenly got interesting. Calculus and Diffy Q before leaving high school, college physics and biology, test out of freshman college course by taking all AP courses, saved me some coin in college.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
') I was more of the going to parties, chasing girls and playing sports type. You sound like you stayed after school and played chess talked physics with your dork friends.


I don't drink, pops was an alcoholic and got kicked out of the Air Force for killing someone while drunk overseas. The high school I went to was all boys, girls from the public school I should have gone to invited me to proms and stuff though. Athletes played well in high school.

Yes, I stayed after classes. To run. No interest in chess. No interest in physics but I certainly took classes in it before I left high school. Calculus. Differential equations. Chemistry. All the usual easy college AP stuff.

Obviously, by the time I finished college I knew what a brain was for. Went straight into the oil field and found an entire industry where I could use every ounce of it. And then, given the opportunity elsewhere to learn other industries....and absorb...everything...I used it. But still a dork!

Working on a voltagte rectifier/regulator problem on my motorcycle this weekend. Once a dork, always a dork, but the inguneer in me is still there knowing how to think and fix stuff.
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Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby Armageddon » Mon 01 Sep 2025, 13:59:06

JUST IN: India is cutting its U.S. Treasury holdings while piling up Gold in its forex reserves. Shifting gears toward hard assets?

The world is changing fast
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Mon 01 Sep 2025, 14:17:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'J')UST IN: India is cutting its U.S. Treasury holdings while piling up Gold in its forex reserves. Shifting gears toward hard assets?


Maybe. Good thing it doesn't have any more to do with collapse than it did all the other times you pitched it.

Do you know what a "broken record" means?

Oh, have you EVEN thought up a definition for collapse yet? With the internet at your disposal, and decades of pretending it is happening (but doesn't).....think hard. You've got more than enough egg on face already. 20 years worth.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')The world is changing fast

Just like it did when you claimed it was signs of doom all those other times it wasn't? Been quite a few years of NICE economic growth, here and around the world, which you have just as happily enjoyed as I have. Good brisket in the Missouri backwaters I bet!

Define collapse Armie, and we can discuss if you EVEN KNOW WHAT IT IS.

Defining ones terms is one of those "dorky" science things that comes in handy when dealing with....folks somewhat challenged in their basic understanding of...you know....words...and stuff.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby Armageddon » Mon 01 Sep 2025, 15:09:08

If you don’t see the problem with the world dumping UST and buying gold, you are clueless.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AgentR11 » Mon 01 Sep 2025, 17:21:02

Given that the Fed will buy those treasuries, push come to shove, I think we've long since passed the point of where a problem begins. We are in the problem state, and its working out in a wishy-washy ok kind of way. Not sure why we can't coast this all the way down to 1 USD = 1 Japanese Yen; or a little less bad, 1 Yuan maybe.
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Mon 01 Sep 2025, 17:26:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I')f you don’t see the problem with the world dumping UST and buying gold, you are clueless.


I understand many financial shenanigans, at all sorts of levels, as compared to just your favorites. I understand that as a broken record who can't even define collapse, you lack credibility in the worst way. I understand that you can't even quantify the amount of "dumping" that might be good, or bad, because analytic thinking isn't your thing...but us dorks can do it all day long.

Which is why I know how well my gold has appreciated compared to my market assets since I began investing in both. Apparently you didn't even get the memo on diversification when you began your investing journey.

I recommend finding smart people. No, not online blowhards like Ruppert. Ask them questions. Take notes. Then go to do it twice again. Then compare your notes (you can write can't you?). You would be surprised at the differences of opinions from experts in a non-scientific endeavor, whereas us scientists pretty much agree that 2+2 does indeed equal 4. If you sample longer, you will discover the uninformed who can only shout PMS! and can't explain why it worked for them other than they liked it, to the very informed who get it wrong, trying to pick particular stocks. Or who get it right, because that works for them, and still beats your gold, at least across the time period I have been investing. Are you a Johnny Come Lately to investing? My clock starts early 80's, and was mostly by accident.

It is called "learning". As you can't even define "collapse", I won't presume you know what "learning" is, I recommend an online dictionary. Or ask your wife's father, apparently he knows a thing or two about how to collect some wealth beyond just marrying well.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby Armageddon » Mon 01 Sep 2025, 17:58:19

That’s a lot of words saying you don’t understand the significance of world dumping UST for gold.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Mon 01 Sep 2025, 18:10:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'T')hat’s a lot of words saying you don’t understand the significance of world dumping UST for gold.


I said nothing of the sort. Learn to read. You see, "understand the significance" is also a relative term, the same way you use the word "collapse". You hallucinate a ending story you want, and then say some words that may or may not be related.

"Significance" to you means you were suckered by internet idiots like Ruppert. Quantify "significance" and we'll talk. You know, quant speak, not "sucker who falls for everything that comes my way" speak.

And a warning, economics is a social science, the rule of the herd as it were. It is not the physical/natural sciences. Which is why that is the only arena you CAN make up nonsense, and have suckers fall for it. Because the "rules of the herd" are not an absolute. You would know this if you were a dork, and studied economics beyond just listening to folks like Ruppert.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby Armageddon » Mon 01 Sep 2025, 20:40:08

I’m trying to figure out your motive. You are on here all day every day for the last 10 years trying to disprove everybody. What’s your purpose?
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby theluckycountry » Mon 01 Sep 2025, 22:19:33

When the world dumps $UD the US will no longer be able to sell it's bonds OS, which means the US population will get real inflation up the tailpipe. The BRICS have been abandoning US treasuries and cash since the West stole Russia's overseas holdings over the ukraine operation. They know the West, and America in particular won't honor financial arrangements when push comes to shove. Covid inflation? A good cover story for the hundreds of billions flooding back into the US, watering down the local's currency. Then there is all the commissions the US was making printing dollars for essentially nothing and flooding the world with them because the world needed them to trade with.

The only thing that saved Britain after the collapse of sterling post WWII was the agreement they made with the US that it would be used in the former colonies. That way they could still exploit India and Africa... for a season.

The big revolt.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/_SLSwfFtyfA
And I'd believe this one too.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/pWOvwzOULRk
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Mon 01 Sep 2025, 22:23:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I')’m trying to figure out your motive.

Well HELL! You should have just asked.

Monte didn't like my posting of ideas and information that ran counter to his "gee I wish I had gotten a college degree because I think I'm all MARTZ and all" and erased plenty of evidence of what I thought in real time...because if you could think and logically dissemble nonsense you weren't someone he wanted around. A jealousy thing probably. Believe first....can't think...don't know dick about oil and gas...parrot Ruppert and other brand name doomers, try and quote a science idea every now and then, all predicting the end. Sound familiar?

I am irritated that my original ideas were erased because Monte was THAT embarassed by someone who knew stuff, and censorship was his only answer to better information and understanding.

End of Suburbia....PLEASE.

So no reason I can't be here at the end to point out how some of us knew better all along, to make up for being treated poorly by those who knew so little. but were in charge of censorship of knowledge.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
') You are on here all day every day for the last 10 years trying to disprove everybody. What’s your purpose?


I'm an undercover world renowned scientist with decades of oil and gas experience employed now by billionaires to know things so they can profit from it, and now sneaking around trying to let the rubes know how they've been so thoroughly had.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby Armageddon » Mon 01 Sep 2025, 22:58:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'W')hen the world dumps $UD the US will no longer be able to sell it's bonds OS, which means the US population will get real inflation up the tailpipe. The BRICS have been abandoning US treasuries and cash since the West stole Russia's overseas holdings over the ukraine operation. They know the West, and America in particular won't honor financial arrangements when push comes to shove. Covid inflation? A good cover story for the hundreds of billions flooding back into the US, watering down the local's currency. Then there is all the commissions the US was making printing dollars for essentially nothing and flooding the world with them because the world needed them to trade with.

The only thing that saved Britain after the collapse of sterling post WWII was the agreement they made with the US that it would be used in the former colonies. That way they could still exploit India and Africa... for a season.

The big revolt.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/_SLSwfFtyfA
And I'd believe this one too.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/pWOvwzOULRk



Yep, good luck running multi trillion dollar deficits when you have to monetize your own debt.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby theluckycountry » Tue 02 Sep 2025, 06:52:25

You picked a good time to come back into the frey Armageddon, Both Gold and Silver just made fresh all time highs and will only go higher with the inflation ahead. I have known from the very start the simple fact, they track inflation, and boy has the western world seen some inflation both in Housing and food. But then you have to add in the oil age services, electricity, sewage, water, roads. I can't remember the famous economist's name but he lived a century or so ago and he pointed out past cycles of inflation in Housing and Food that lasted 100 years. These were the two basics of life on earth, but now we have the others above as well. Try living in a modern home without them.

If we take the start point as 1960 say, then we would have a few decades ahead of us before this inflation ends and we go back to normal monetary business. People are ignorant of the fact that the US had zero inflation for 100 years back in the 1800's. In fact there was actually mild "deflation" as innovation, steam trains as an example, reduced prices of transport. Of course Gold was the currency of account and you can't inflate that.

In the early days of any inflation it's not bad and wages go up with it. But then wages fall further and further behind and the basics become so expensive that the average people really struggle to afford them. But were not talking mud brick houses here as it was for much of history, the oil age has allowed us to build and live up inside tower of babel like sky scrapers. Not my scene but the views and amenities are amazing. Power lifts to the 80th floor, water and electricity, shops in the mezzanine, grocery stores a walk away. You could live your whole life in a few city blocks if you wanted, and had the funds. Then all the amazing suburban homes which are still for the most part great if you can afford their servicing and don't have to drive too far.

I'm not a multi-millionaire though so it's safer to view all that infrastructure as it will be in 20 or 30 years. You don't want to be caught out wanting to sell your home in a time when they are unsalable due to their big energy footprints. Rural properties have doubled since I moved out 6 years ago. You snooze you lose as they say. Which brings us to electricity again, something that the prior inflations never had to deal with. It's a staple too, just like food and housing, and it's going up and up. It's no longer a simple service where the companies made good profits providing cheap to generate electricity, now the electricity is getting very expensive due to the renewable fiasco and the grids are getting very expensive to maintain too. Engel's Law states that as household incomes rise, the percentage of income spent on food decreases and more money goes to other goods or services. That was the 1950's~2000's, not today, not the future.

And when you add to it Jevon's paradox, you have a recipe for disaster.

Image

Jevon's paradox: Increased efficiency in resource use leads to an overall increase in consumption rather than a decrease. William Jevons 1865, "The Coal Question,"
He observed that improvements in steam engine efficiency resulted in higher coal consumption instead of conservation. So we have a Planet full of refrigerators, Hot water systems, Air-conditioners, lights and Big TV sets and every energy hog you can think of. Bathing in cold water? Going to bed when the sun goes down? It's a reality for an increasing number of people.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby theluckycountry » Tue 02 Sep 2025, 07:02:48

Gold, Silver Soar as India Buys Metal, Dumps Treasuries
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-09- ... treasuries

Why should they hodl US paper when they are getting screwed with Tariffs? Fuck the US they say, we are a BRICS nation after all.


Image


Image
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Tue 02 Sep 2025, 08:25:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')Yep, good luck running multi trillion dollar deficits when you have to monetize your own debt.


<yawn>

Yeah, we know. Why? Because its been going on for decades and you've been saying it is bad for decades and all we know for sure now is....you sure don't know much about how the fiscal/financial world works.

Just based on how much whining you've been doing about debt, and for how long, and for how long you've been getting it wrong, I'm betting these ideas were in you long before the internet came along and gave you more uninformed hafwits saying the same thing for you to cheerlead.

Does this uninformed thing of your go back to some event in your life, or was it taught to you by your family and you just expanded on it into macro economics? I mean really, politicians had been discussing the imbalance in government financing and whatnot since us old farts were youngsters.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby Armageddon » Tue 02 Sep 2025, 14:17:46

Ray Dalio sees the future.

He warned, "Something worse than a recession is coming."

It's already happening.

Gold prices are soaring while the USD index is collapsing.

What Ray Dalio sees coming next is disastrous


And just think what it took to get us out of the last crises, and this one is 10x worse.


ZIRP, Trillions of govt printing, massive QE etc. No wonder the world is dumping UST and flocking to gold. They see the handwriting on the wall.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby theluckycountry » Tue 02 Sep 2025, 15:31:19

It's gonna be a lot lot worse than the Great Depression, and NO cheap oil to rebuild with after.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby theluckycountry » Tue 02 Sep 2025, 15:39:58

Most of the other threads are redundant in a sense now. When this depression really gets underway, and it's already happening for many, all the issues of oil and AI and politics will be irrelevant. All people will be talking about is where can I get cheap food and where can live now the sheriff's taken my home.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby Armageddon » Tue 02 Sep 2025, 17:08:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'I')t's gonna be a lot lot worse than the Great Depression, and NO cheap oil to rebuild with after.



Yep, it’s cratering now. We’ll see what their next magic bullet is. All they can do is lower rates and print.
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