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THE Thermal Depolymerization Thread (merged)

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Re:

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 19 Aug 2025, 22:44:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'Y')es I have heard of it.

Remember PO is not about the end of oil. It's about the end of cheap superabundent oil :)


Good thing when it happened in 2018 at WTI $65/bbl the price only went up to $76 in 2024! And for the record, what is "SUPERabundant"? Like...a BUNCH more than the peak oil ignorant proclaimed was left back in the day?

I recommend learning about an effect called "reserve growth", it is often unaccounted for by the amateurs, and it does in fact "rule". :lol:
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Re: Re:

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 29 Aug 2025, 14:40:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'Y')es I have heard of it.

Remember PO is not about the end of oil. It's about the end of cheap superabundent oil :)


Good thing when it happened in 2018 at WTI $65/bbl the price only went up to $76 in 2024! And for the record, what is "SUPERabundant"? Like...a BUNCH more than the peak oil ignorant proclaimed was left back in the day?

I recommend learning about an effect called "reserve growth", it is often unaccounted for by the amateurs, and it does in fact "rule". :lol:


I was, believe it or not, a History major that transitioned into mathematics for education when I was at University. When I tried to point out that resource limits sparked collapse was actually problematic from a historical viewpoint I was frequently shouted down by those who have a catastrophic outlook on the future. I pointed out that civilizations who were robust frequently weathered storms of resource management quite well, and those who did not were often overtaken by other civilizations that displaced them when they were weak.

For example the Roman Empire had a very much expansionist, slavery based economic model that counted on always importing cheap labor from the frontier during the expansion phase. Around 500 AD the Western Roman Empire "collapsed" and things got pretty rough, but at the same time the Eastern Roman Empire aka Byzantine Empire went through a transition. Slaves became expensive as expansion ground to a halt, but the ERE did not simply collapse into warring states like the WRE. Instead existing slave populations were largely transitioned into Peasants, given a small stake in the success of the agricultural plantations where they were working and housed. This was enough that while no longer exactly slaves they were often considered part of the land because they were needed for the land to produce food, energy or surpluses of the same. Over a short period of time the successor nation states in the former WRE quickly adopted the same model. By 600 AD slavery had transitioned from 30 percent of the total workforce down to about 7 to 10 percent, and it stayed in that range until the 19th century. Even in the 'bad old days' of the Antebellum South USA actual slave labor in the USA as a whole never reached the 30 percent that was standard in the pre 500 AD Roman Empire both east and west. By the time of the USCW slavery was actually in decline in the old south as steam powered mechanical devices, newer designs of farm equipment like the John Deer Plow and McCormick Reaper for traditional grain crops and many other small but significant advancements reduced farm labor demand. Slavery was really only a highly profitable enterprise in the 1790-1850 period. By 1861 the writing on the wall was increasingly visible that Slavery would not remain a big money making way of life forever. The money interests tied deeply to slavery tried to freeze technology and sparked the USCW but even without the war the days of plantation slave based agriculture were drawing to a close, making large slave populations an expense instead of a profit source. Brazil had no civil war, but by 1880 slavery died off there as well for economic reasons. If the majority of monied people could have made a profit mass slavery would have remained in force. However industrial workers, unlike slaves, could be fired and replaced at a high profit where slaves had to be taken care of if they were injured or too old for heavy labor because mistreating old or infirm slaves led to mass slave revolts. Despite popular opinion, people who were known to abuse their slaves rarely lived to old age in comfort and security when their lives depended on slaves.

History has other examples but if you have the energy to actually understand you will realize strong cultures transition, they do not collapse.
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Re: THE Thermal Depolymerization Thread (merged)

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 29 Aug 2025, 18:23:47

That's kind of the issue though, doomers were convinced that the current, existing cultures were *not* strong, and were just waiting for an excuse to collapse in on their decadent, inefficient selves. The truth turned out to be that modern civilizations are almost uniformly durable, each adapting to the change in the petroleum energy landscape according to their own individual strengths. Africa didn't do so well, but for the most part, transition was the name of the game, not collapse.
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Re: Re:

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 29 Aug 2025, 18:44:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')I was, believe it or not, a History major that transitioned into mathematics for education when I was at University.

I believe it. I know enough about math and what can be done with it to recognize a working mind that understands it and can use it, which you have certainly demonstated in the past vis-a-vie your understanding of how radioactive decay works...and then some.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
') When I tried to point out that resource limits sparked collapse was actually problematic from a historical viewpoint I was frequently shouted down by those who have a catastrophic outlook on the future. I pointed out that civilizations who were robust frequently weathered storms of resource management quite well, and those who did not were often overtaken by other civilizations that displaced them when they were weak.

For example the Roman Empire had a very much expansionist, slavery based economic model that counted on always importing cheap labor from the frontier during the expansion phase. Around 500 AD the Western Roman Empire "collapsed" and things got pretty rough, but at the same time the Eastern Roman Empire aka Byzantine Empire went through a transition. Slaves became expensive as expansion ground to a halt, but the ERE did not simply collapse into warring states like the WRE. Instead existing slave populations were largely transitioned into Peasants, given a small stake in the success of the agricultural plantations where they were working and housed. This was enough that while no longer exactly slaves they were often considered part of the land because they were needed for the land to produce food, energy or surpluses of the same. Over a short period of time the successor nation states in the former WRE quickly adopted the same model. By 600 AD slavery had transitioned from 30 percent of the total workforce down to about 7 to 10 percent, and it stayed in that range until the 19th century. Even in the 'bad old days' of the Antebellum South USA actual slave labor in the USA as a whole never reached the 30 percent that was standard in the pre 500 AD Roman Empire both east and west. By the time of the USCW slavery was actually in decline in the old south as steam powered mechanical devices, newer designs of farm equipment like the John Deer Plow and McCormick Reaper for traditional grain crops and many other small but significant advancements reduced farm labor demand. Slavery was really only a highly profitable enterprise in the 1790-1850 period. By 1861 the writing on the wall was increasingly visible that Slavery would not remain a big money making way of life forever. The money interests tied deeply to slavery tried to freeze technology and sparked the USCW but even without the war the days of plantation slave based agriculture were drawing to a close, making large slave populations an expense instead of a profit source. Brazil had no civil war, but by 1880 slavery died off there as well for economic reasons. If the majority of monied people could have made a profit mass slavery would have remained in force. However industrial workers, unlike slaves, could be fired and replaced at a high profit where slaves had to be taken care of if they were injured or too old for heavy labor because mistreating old or infirm slaves led to mass slave revolts. Despite popular opinion, people who were known to abuse their slaves rarely lived to old age in comfort and security when their lives depended on slaves.

History has other examples but if you have the energy to actually understand you will realize strong cultures transition, they do not collapse.


I learn something every time you explain something in detail. Never looked beyond the history of oil and gas when it came to other collapses and whatnot, although Jared Diamond comes highly recommended on the topic.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Thermal Depolymerization Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 29 Aug 2025, 18:48:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'T')hat's kind of the issue though, doomers were convinced that the current, existing cultures were *not* strong, and were just waiting for an excuse to collapse in on their decadent, inefficient selves.

Do you recall many who took the current situation, or the situation they THOUGHT was happening a decade or so ago, and did a point by point comparison down through the ages? That's logical, but I don't recall any informed enough in history, or honest enough about what WAS happening in the present...as opposed to their hopes and dreams...to do the analysis in order to test the current hypothesis of doom and whatnot.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Thermal Depolymerization Thread (merged)

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 29 Aug 2025, 19:07:20

I don't recall much of that sort of thing, just a lot of thinly veiled wishcasting that the end was nigh. The end may be guaranteed, but its not and wasn't nigh, by any stretch of a human timeline at least. I do recall, right at the beginning of being a bit caught up in it myself, but it just doesn't "math out"; people really can walk to a grocery store. Shipping food by rail and semi is spectacularly efficient. The government has programs and financial capability to insure that crops never again rot in the field. By hook or crook, people will be able to buy their 2000 kcal / day allotment of kibble. Thus no collapse, no end times, no zombie apocalypse. At worst, just a slow grind down the prosperity ladder.
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Re: THE Thermal Depolymerization Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 29 Aug 2025, 19:41:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'I') don't recall much of that sort of thing, just a lot of thinly veiled wishcasting that the end was nigh. The end may be guaranteed, but its not and wasn't nigh, by any stretch of a human timeline at least. I do recall, right at the beginning of being a bit caught up in it myself, but it just doesn't "math out"; people really can walk to a grocery store. Shipping food by rail and semi is spectacularly efficient. The government has programs and financial capability to insure that crops never again rot in the field. By hook or crook, people will be able to buy their 2000 kcal / day allotment of kibble. Thus no collapse, no end times, no zombie apocalypse. At worst, just a slow grind down the prosperity ladder.


I remember some supposing about the same. Not really "uber-Doomer" but more what you describe. They weren't as popular though, during the boom times. There are some great arguments back in the archives where the uber-Doomers were arguing it out with the slow collapsers.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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