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What are we going to do in the post Peak world?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: What are we going to do in the post Peak world?

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 24 Aug 2025, 20:36:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'N')ice thread, but it was 20 years to early. However, it is VERY relevant now.
Peace


One of the beauties about the peak idea is that ANY claim of it...should it FINALLY be the one...might be relevant. But you don't get credit for guessing the number that comes up on a rolled die by saying it is always going to be 1. You will, sometime, be right. That is Step 1. Step 2? Does it even matter.

Is peak oil relevant today? Dunno. Global peak was 2018. Bothered you much? Hasn't hurt your financial success in BTC has it? Hasn't hurt my market investments. Pimping it into a world ending event was the scam. Pretending that it hasn't ever happened before was a scam. Pretending Hubbert got it right was a scam. Pretending the USES of oil in the form of liquid fuels can't be replaced by liquid fuels made out of something else was a scam. John Denver gets the credit on this website for THINKING in real time through all of this. He didn't go on to solve the issue, but he had every question that needed answered to know if it was a crock, answered a nice number of them, working logically and consistently.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: What are we going to do in the post Peak world?

Unread postby careinke » Mon 25 Aug 2025, 16:00:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'N')ice thread, but it was 20 years to early. However, it is VERY relevant now.
Peace


One of the beauties about the peak idea is that ANY claim of it...should it FINALLY be the one...might be relevant. But you don't get credit for guessing the number that comes up on a rolled die by saying it is always going to be 1. You will, sometime, be right. That is Step 1. Step 2? Does it even matter.

Is peak oil relevant today? Dunno. Global peak was 2018. Bothered you much? Hasn't hurt your financial success in BTC has it? Hasn't hurt my market investments. Pimping it into a world ending event was the scam. Pretending that it hasn't ever happened before was a scam. Pretending Hubbert got it right was a scam. Pretending the USES of oil in the form of liquid fuels can't be replaced by liquid fuels made out of something else was a scam. John Denver gets the credit on this website for THINKING in real time through all of this. He didn't go on to solve the issue, but he had every question that needed answered to know if it was a crock, answered a nice number of them, working logically and consistently.


I actually completely agree with everything in your response. I was looking at it from a different perspective.
After you resurrected this thread, I re-read it from the beginning and everyone seemed to actually be focused on how un-survivable the collapse would be. I found it quite amusing, and my first thought was; after the collapse, I'll probably gather food from my land, fish, collect stuff gifted to me by the Salish Sea, and generally sit back and chill. Not a bad life, for someone in his seventies. :)

I do think peak oil may actually happen, but it will be directed by laws created by man, not nature. Hence it's relevance. The Dims have been trying this for years. Fortunately common sense is returning, and everyone is abandoning the fringe left, who have tried to take over, not just in the US, but worldwide. Humans thrive with capitalism, and die under ALL versions of socialism.

And yes, we have done pretty well so far.

Peace
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Re: What are we going to do in the post Peak world?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 25 Aug 2025, 22:06:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'N')ice thread, but it was 20 years to early. However, it is VERY relevant now.
Peace


One of the beauties about the peak idea is that ANY claim of it...should it FINALLY be the one...might be relevant. But you don't get credit for guessing the number that comes up on a rolled die by saying it is always going to be 1. You will, sometime, be right. That is Step 1. Step 2? Does it even matter.

Is peak oil relevant today? Dunno. Global peak was 2018. Bothered you much? Hasn't hurt your financial success in BTC has it? Hasn't hurt my market investments. Pimping it into a world ending event was the scam. Pretending that it hasn't ever happened before was a scam. Pretending Hubbert got it right was a scam. Pretending the USES of oil in the form of liquid fuels can't be replaced by liquid fuels made out of something else was a scam. John Denver gets the credit on this website for THINKING in real time through all of this. He didn't go on to solve the issue, but he had every question that needed answered to know if it was a crock, answered a nice number of them, working logically and consistently.


I actually completely agree with everything in your response. I was looking at it from a different perspective.

After you resurrected this thread, I re-read it from the beginning and everyone seemed to actually be focused on how un-survivable the collapse would be.

That was one of the first things I noticed back in the day as well. It was just a doomer fest for end timer types, gun nuts, people looking for an excuse to pretend to be farmers, get a fishing cabin, etc etc. I didn't get the link to peak oil at all at first.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Careinke', '
')I do think peak oil may actually happen, but it will be directed by laws created by man, not nature. Hence it's relevance.

I'm pretty satisfied with 2018 to date. I've been satisfied with all the REAL peak oils since...forever. The US is at one about right now. We'll know in a couple more months. They are more common than the peakers ever wanted to admit...sort of ruins their scheme to admit they ever existed before. It would be like pitching PlanetX or Yellowstone exploding...over...and over....and over. Even diehards get tired of being laughed at by their friends.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')The Dims have been trying this for years.

Driving down demand is as sure to cause a peak oil as resource constraints, absolutely. I"ve been banned from at least 2 of the old sites for demonstrating it with nothing more than how the price/supply/demand curve works. DENIER!!! being hurdled at me as I was escorted out. You can't even use a perfectly logical thought to SUPPORT peak oil....nope....its running out or nuttin!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
') Fortunately common sense is returning, and everyone is abandoning the fringe left, who have tried to take over, not just in the US, but worldwide. Humans thrive with capitalism, and die under ALL versions of socialism.

And yes, we have done pretty well so far.

Peace
If by "common sense" you really mean "damn glad I won't be around when the rising seas reclaim my sea/ocean side property for mother nature" because it doesn't make much sense to at least TRY to stop melting the place...ok...?

As far as "done pretty well" are you talking about the millions in the US about to lose Medicaid benefits and whatnot, as compared to older folks like you and I that invested well...ok.....? Seems a bit cold hearted though. I will agree that America is about capatalism....doesn't sit well with some that we treat such a large chunk of the country as something we scrape off our shoes though.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: What are we going to do in the post Peak world?

Unread postby AgentR11 » Tue 26 Aug 2025, 04:19:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'Y')ellowstone exploding...over...and over....and over. Even diehards get tired of being laughed at by their friends.


To be fair, Yellowstone could explode, and we'd probably get very little warning; it'd be bad. St. Helen's was bad too. It just wouldn't be the apocalypse.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'A')s far as "done pretty well" are you talking about the millions in the US about to lose Medicaid benefits and whatnot, as compared to older folks like you and I that invested well...ok.....? Seems a bit cold hearted though. I will agree that America is about capatalism....doesn't sit well with some that we treat such a large chunk of the country as something we scrape off our shoes though.


Capitalism has always been cold-hearted... Nature of the beast. Question is how to survive and thrive in a capitalistic realm as the things we depend on start fraying at the edges. So what am I going to do in a post peak world, sail a sailboat maybe, though one not so grand as Newfie's; I think it'll get the job done and I'll see some places from a perspective I've not seen them from before. Will pirates "get me" as a 70 year old on a boat? Maybe. But.. so what. I'm not living to 200 no matter what the end looks like.
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
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Re: What are we going to do in the post Peak world?

Unread postby careinke » Tue 26 Aug 2025, 18:58:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')As far as "done pretty well" are you talking about the millions in the US about to lose Medicaid benefits and whatnot, as compared to older folks like you and I that invested well...ok.....? Seems a bit cold hearted though. I will agree that America is about capatalism....doesn't sit well with some that we treat such a large chunk of the country as something we scrape off our shoes though.


I was actually talking about myself, not the masses. That said, I certainly see the possibility of Universal Very High Incomes, Extradentary Medical Care at extremely low prices, Basically Free Energy (the Sun is very Big), Freedom for Sovereign Humans to pursue their own interests, and a Whole LOT of other stuff we have not even imagined yet. But it is coming...soon.

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Re: What are we going to do in the post Peak world?

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 26 Aug 2025, 19:26:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'Y')ellowstone exploding...over...and over....and over. Even diehards get tired of being laughed at by their friends.


To be fair, Yellowstone could explode, and we'd probably get very little warning; it'd be bad. St. Helen's was bad too. It just wouldn't be the apocalypse.


You are completely correct. However, that "could" comes with a probability function when ventured by the appropriate professional, because otherwise no one has a clue about what the probability of "could". Other than it is a true statement. No different than..."Alien beings COULD land tomorrow and take over the world!". Could is a great caveat.

The remnants of the other supervolcano explosions coming from the Yellowstone caldera that have been tracked through time, something like 600,000 years ago, and 700,000 years before that, and 800,000 years before that. So they are certainly getting shorter with time!

And if they hold to the past pattern, first 800k, then 700k, then 600k....wait...THAT IS NOW!!!!! WE ARE DOOMED! :lol:

Sort of like peak oil, and a perfectly valid claim that just requires one more piece of information.....what year is the current overunder? +0? (YES! DOOM!). 1000 +/- 100? Maybe. How about Planet X, do you think that falls into "could"? And it is just running a little late? The Mayan calendar one was good.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'A')s far as "done pretty well" are you talking about the millions in the US about to lose Medicaid benefits and whatnot, as compared to older folks like you and I that invested well...ok.....? Seems a bit cold hearted though. I will agree that America is about capatalism....doesn't sit well with some that we treat such a large chunk of the country as something we scrape off our shoes though.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '
')Capitalism has always been cold-hearted... Nature of the beast.

Can't dispute that. And has treated some very well, myself included.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Agent11', '
') Question is how to survive and thrive in a capitalistic realm as the things we depend on start fraying at the edges. So what am I going to do in a post peak world, sail a sailboat maybe, though one not so grand as Newfie's; I think it'll get the job done and I'll see some places from a perspective I've not seen them from before. Will pirates "get me" as a 70 year old on a boat? Maybe. But.. so what. I'm not living to 200 no matter what the end looks like.

The "lets sail away!" angle has been popular for awhile, wasn't Dmitri Orlov a proponent of that for awhile? It works for Newfie, but while I like the water I don't have an urge to live on it.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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