Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Peak Oil: Two Approaches, One Answer

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Peak Oil: Two Approaches, One Answer

Unread postby clv101 » Tue 28 Jun 2005, 19:24:12

Here's the latest article from my blog, I think it's important to point out that there are two completely different ways of calculating when peak oil will occur and importantly they agree with one another!

Here the geologists method of Hubbert and Campbell is compared to the analysis’s method of Chris Skrebowski with uncanny agreement.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here are two distinct ways to think about and present the phenomenon of peak oil. It’s easy to describe what peak oil actually is, it’s the global peak in extraction rate of petroleum. The difficulty of course is determining the date and associated extraction rate of peak oil. This is where I see the two camps.

http://www.vitaltrivia.co.uk/2005/06/21
"Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen." The Emperor (Return of the Jedi)
The Oil Drum: Europe
User avatar
clv101
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1050
Joined: Wed 02 Jun 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Bristol, UK

Unread postby holmes » Tue 28 Jun 2005, 19:33:49

I have a gut feeling 2008 will be the year the US economy goes completely underwater in its long descent to the bottom (titanic). I was hoping 2015 but consumption is not waning worldwide.
holmes
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2382
Joined: Tue 12 Oct 2004, 03:00:00

Unread postby MicroHydro » Tue 28 Jun 2005, 21:07:29

The Australia and UK housing bubbles are already past. Australia is deflating and the UK is just leaving the peak price plateau. The US housing boom will peak by August, with noticeable declines by early 2006. In all, $30 trillion in home equity were added to the OCED nations in the 21st century housing bubble. If only half of that vanishes, it would still be more than twice the $7 Trillion in equity that was wiped out by the dotcom crash.

In brief, the global economic depression will be getting underway shortly. Whether peak (sweet light) oil already happened in 2004, or is a few years in the future no longer matters. The days of theory are over. We are living the actual experience right now.
"The world is changed... I feel it in the water... I feel it in the earth... I smell it in the air... Much that once was, is lost..." - Galadriel
User avatar
MicroHydro
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1242
Joined: Sun 10 Apr 2005, 03:00:00

Unread postby RdSnt » Tue 28 Jun 2005, 22:17:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('holmes', 'I') have a gut feeling 2008 will be the year the US economy goes completely underwater in its long descent to the bottom (titanic). I was hoping 2015 but consumption is not waning worldwide.


Jim Puplava on http://www.financialsense.com has a series call "The Day After Tomorrow". I've been tracking the financial predictions he's outlined in the series. So far he's pretty much spot on and his call is for the US economy to tank big time in 2006.
Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
User avatar
RdSnt
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1461
Joined: Wed 02 Feb 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Canada

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Tue 28 Jun 2005, 23:17:09

--
Hawkcreek
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 1468
Joined: Sun 15 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Washington State

Re: Peak Oil: Two Approaches, One Answer

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 22 Aug 2025, 21:25:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clv101', 'H')ere's the latest article from my blog, I think it's important to point out that there are two completely different ways of calculating when peak oil will occur and importantly they agree with one another!

Here the geologists method of Hubbert and Campbell is compared to the analysis’s method of Chris Skrebowski with uncanny agreement.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here are two distinct ways to think about and present the phenomenon of peak oil. It’s easy to describe what peak oil actually is, it’s the global peak in extraction rate of petroleum. The difficulty of course is determining the date and associated extraction rate of peak oil. This is where I see the two camps.

http://www.vitaltrivia.co.uk/2005/06/21


You hallucinated the accuracy of these numbskulls in real time, I understand, but for craps sake Chris you were smart enough to get a PhD it is humilating that you participated in this farce because you couldn't listen to those of us who told you it was a crock in real time.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26


Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests

cron