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THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged) Pt. 1

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 03 Aug 2025, 21:30:53

The average lifespan of a Fiat currency is 37 years. This one will end the same as the all the others. It is destined to fail. It’s what they do. Debt and hyperinflation destroys them and we are on the same path, especially with the debt monetizing we are now doing.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Aesop1 » Mon 04 Aug 2025, 00:38:37

I think we are getting a ringside seat to why the Bronze Age collapse in 1177bce.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 04 Aug 2025, 08:09:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'T')he average lifespan of a Fiat currency is 37 years.

Reference please.

Also, averages are meaningless in skewed distibutions, please provide additionally the median, and at least the F75 and F25 so we can determine the odds as they might relate to American exceptionalism.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')This one will end the same as the all the others. It is destined to fail. It’s what they do.

Maybe. Maybe not. You claiming it certainly doesn't make it true, as you have ALWAYS been claiming it. Same way you did peak oil....until you suddenly went silent on the issue because it became embarassing. Same thing that drove most peak oilers out of the game.

The British pound began use as money in 760. Until 1855 banknotes were written by hand, they began printing in 1855.

Now....tell me how it is that if a fallen empire with turds for identured servants like Lucky is still printing their money, the US can't do the same?

And again, with countries in the mix using fiat for centuries, EXACTLY how did you calculate an average as though it might be meaningful?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')Debt and hyperinflation destroys them and we are on the same path, especially with the debt monetizing we are now doing.


Yes...we know you have been saying this for decades now. And we know you have been SAYING it for decades. Get the point? You aren't the boy who cried wolf, you are his father, and then his older brother, and then the grandchild....and the townsfolk are still waiting.....with bows and arrows, firearms, and artillery.

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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 04 Aug 2025, 10:07:11

The world has lost its appetite for UST. So I guess we’ll see how long a country can go by funding its own multi-trillion dollar deficits and 37T debt. Every leading economic indicator is cratering. A country with this much debt can’t sustain high rates, even though by historical averages, they aren’t that high. Home building is the backbone of the US economy, and it’s collapsing in front of our eyes. I’ve read that housing makes up 40% of the US economy.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 04 Aug 2025, 12:48:22

US JUNE DURABLE GOODS ORDERS FALL 9.4% M/M

US JUNE FACTORY ORDERS FALL 4.8% M/M


Every leading indicator is cratering. Grab your popcorn and let’s watch what happens this Fall / Winter. Let’s see how they respond. I’ve already posted my prediction…. Trillions more debt, massive QE, rate cuts etc.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 04 Aug 2025, 13:27:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'T')he world has lost its appetite for UST.

You mean, just like all the other times you said this? So...lets approach this from a different angle? How many times do you have to say something, across how many years, or decades, before you and I, aging nicely type gentlemen, will be bothered much by it?

Better yet, have you EVER been bothered by the world losing its appetite for UST? And you should be more specific in an economic sense, because what you are probably confusing with "appetite", is "appetite at a certain price". One implies folks aren't buying them, as compared to the economic concept that they'll buy them....but will expect more in return for the risk they perceive.

You really should take a course or something in talking like a finance/economic specialist. Rather than someone who just knows the language of...doomer praddle.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
') So I guess we’ll see how long a country can go by funding its own multi-trillion dollar deficits and 37T debt.

Now see! That wasn't hard! You are exactly right. We are in an EXPERIMENT, you and I, here in America. One leg of that experiment might be, when might YOU and I be so enticed by promised higher yields on buying debt that we get into the game? Myself, I don't like derivative games, I prefer my investing to be clean, easy to understand and whatnot. No BTC for me. Or buying debt, don't like government bonds much either. I tried gold, that was a bust, it just sits there worth less than market tracking funds like every day. <sigh> The kids will find something to do with it I suppose.

In the meantime, let the experiment continue! My bet is you and I die before it becomes the doom that some hope for.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 04 Aug 2025, 13:44:15

BREAKING: World central banks bought another 166.5 tonnes of gold in Q2 2025.

This is ~41% above the average quarterly purchase between 2010 and 2021.

This also brings total purchases in the first half of 2025 to 415 tonnes, the third-largest H1 on record.

Demand is likely to remain strong, with 95% of central banks expecting global gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months.

Central banks are still piling into gold. What do they know? What do they see coming?
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 04 Aug 2025, 14:52:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'B')REAKING: World central banks bought another 166.5 tonnes of gold in Q2 2025.

This is ~41% above the average quarterly purchase between 2010 and 2021.


OMG!! Make up some cool statistics related metrics from YEARS ago to play the RUN FOR THE HILLS game!!!

Hey Armie, remember when you went for peak oil hook, line and sinker as well? Yeah, me too! Do you still fall for the "pull my finger" trick as well?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')Demand is likely to remain strong, with 95% of central banks expecting global gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months.

Central banks are still piling into gold. What do they know? What do they see coming?


There are no facts in the future. So they can't "see" any more than you can...otherwise you'd have been eaten by MZBs in the Apocalypse you've been hallucinating for 20 years now. But just as with those of us who could figure out peak oil in advance, I'm betting they do what any expert analyst does, they apply past experience, add some statistics, and make their bet at the table.

No different than normal palm readers and astrologists, but a little better informed on the basic mechanisms of market economics I imagine.

Do you know where they bought all this gold from?
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 04 Aug 2025, 16:17:45

Are you a peak oil denier?
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 04 Aug 2025, 20:45:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'A')re you a peak oil denier?


Are you kidding? Peak oil is a mathematical certainty, Hubbert having laid it out for the rubes back in 1956.

The sheer volume of half witted "peakers" who don't understand that basic fact is hysterical. The question is more the consequences of not peak oil, but between the relationship that matters....oil supply, demand and price.

How you prove peak oil is like this...you start by finding someone with a scientific grounding and experience in three sciences, or maybe you can think of them as certain types of technical expertises. One is basic economics, as basic as project economics, but also a grounding in the supply/demand/price thingy, as it is quite critical. Another is discovery process modeling (a thing inside of the geosciences, petroleum geology mathmatics if you will), and engineering, petroleum engineering in particular, as to the techniques related to O&G production, secondary and tertiary recovery, etc etc. Prior demonstrated scientific accomplishment required of course because otherwise no one is going to trust you to know ANYTHING.

So take this kind of person, hand them an easy 7 figure a year information budget, and another 7 figures for 2 years to hire a consultant....(an absolute GENIUS python programmer, say, with a PhD in chemical engineering ) to combine the three into a system...and presto.

<yawn>

Deny peak oil...please...."peak oil denier" is an oxymoron. Only some idiot who believes in bell shaped curves or some horseshit would be that stupid. So it is reasonable you would find them at this place, they just about OWNED it all those years waiting around for THE BLESSED EVENT to arrive, but please don't confuse me with those rubes.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 04 Aug 2025, 21:46:15

There are many abiotic pushers. Didn’t know if you were one of them.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 04 Aug 2025, 22:02:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'T')here are many abiotic pushers. Didn’t know if you were one of them.

Of my three careers, the second was all in the geosciences. I know that abiotic bullshit is just that. Go insult one of those peak oil deniers, they deserve it.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 04 Aug 2025, 22:09:25

The old saying goes, you cant grow your economy without growing your energy supply. Is this the reason global economies are adding trillions of debt per year?
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 04 Aug 2025, 22:53:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'T')he old saying goes, you cant grow your economy without growing your energy supply.

Sounds reasonable. But sayings are sayings. The economy of the Neanderthals grew pretty well, as they bred and multipled across the land. So maybe your saying is a more modern thing? Seeing as how they certainly give a rat's behind about solar power or oil.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
') Is this the reason global economies are adding trillions of debt per year?

Silly retiree, global economies are adding trillions of dollars of debt per year because they are spending more than the taxes and fees they take in.

Can't believe I have to explain that to you, with all your study on debt and whatnot. :lol:
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 04 Aug 2025, 23:29:13

If you can’t grow your economy due to energy restraints, doesn’t it make sense why they are adding so much debt? Seems to me it goes hand in hand. But in all actuality, it could also be a spending issue as well. With 4 million baby boomers retiring per year, all needing social security, Medicare, Medicaid, govt pensions on some, peak oil or not, this will cost trillions of dollars and debt. The estimates of unfunded liabilities are 200T. We are living by the printing press.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 05 Aug 2025, 08:46:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I')f you can’t grow your economy due to energy restraints, doesn’t it make sense why they are adding so much debt?


Well, "making sense" at the government level is an oxymoron for starters. What makes sense, and is factually true and absolutely provable is that when a government spends more money than it takes it, odds are it adds debt. "so much" is just a relative concept, for example $1T to the US debt isn't near as much as it is for say Grenada.

And name a single energy "constraint" in the US. Can you not get the electricity you want in Missouri? Do gas stations not provide unleaded for your ATVs and family cages? Is propane and natural gas not available for your grill or heating your home?

Name a SINGLE energy constraint you have suffered, 7 years now past global peak oil. Just one will do, and we will discuss "constraints" as something other than a boogey man you use as an excuse for why the US spends more than it takes in.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
') Seems to me it goes hand in hand.

It might be. But lets hear about that "constraint" first. If you can't detail how YOU notice energy constraints in your life, you certainly can't presume them as an excuse for much of anything, for anyone.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')The estimates of unfunded liabilities are 200T. We are living by the printing press.

The estimates of when global peak oil would happen happened in 1990. And that took 28 years instead. To date. We've been through like 6 peak oilers so far this century, it has gotten so routine no one even pays attention anymore and sites like this are dead. Such is the nature of estimates, particularly when done by folks just riffing off the top of their head without much in the way of understanding of such a complex system.

I don't know who did your estimates, but it is reasonable to assume that unfunded liabilities are ceertainly going to be a drag on the economy of the US in the future. The hope is, as it often has been, that the economy will continue to grow to offset the unfunded liabilities with increased government intakes. As to whether or not that happens is an open question.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 05 Aug 2025, 09:30:59

The only thing growing is real inflation, not their fake numbers
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 05 Aug 2025, 12:08:57

Is this a true indicator of the real economy?


https://x.com/vladtheinflator/status/19 ... aq1VBSCqtg
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 05 Aug 2025, 16:19:52

I guess it’s possible things don’t ever collapse. They’ll lower rates when shit gets bad and print trillions more. When things start turning around, they’ll raise them to slow inflation. Rinse…repeat..

But, this wont stop the wealth disparity between the top 10% and the bottom 90%. Maybe this is their plan all along? Create two classes of people?
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 05 Aug 2025, 16:59:39

The amount of debt the last 3 president have added… round numbers

Obama - 10T in 8 years
Trump - 8T in 4 years
Biden - 9T in 4 years

I guarantee Trump will break Biden’s 4 year record.
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