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THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged) Pt. 1

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Thu 31 Jul 2025, 14:51:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I') really don’t see how they’ll keep this thing afloat much longer.

Would you like me to find you, you, saying nearly that same thing 20 years ago? Come on Armie...I've asked the question before and you just can't bring yourself to even contemplate it can you?

How many more decades do you think is it reasonable to repeat yourself? I understand that the guy jumping out of the window ultimately hits the ground.....but it doesn't take the 20 years to get there.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby Armageddon » Thu 31 Jul 2025, 15:22:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I') really don’t see how they’ll keep this thing afloat much longer.

Would you like me to find you, you, saying nearly that same thing 20 years ago? Come on Armie...I've asked the question before and you just can't bring yourself to even contemplate it can you?

How many more decades do you think is it reasonable to repeat yourself? I understand that the guy jumping out of the window ultimately hits the ground.....but it doesn't take the 20 years to get there.



I guess so, if you think they can keep printing trillions. I’m sure they can…, until they can’t.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby Armageddon » Thu 31 Jul 2025, 15:31:19

Debt is going parabolic and the world has lost its appetite for UST. You cant compare what’s happening now to any time in US history.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby theluckycountry » Thu 31 Jul 2025, 17:03:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I')s this a good indicator of the true state of the economy? I’d say yes
https://x.com/stealthqe4/status/1950913 ... aq1VBSCqtg


Vegas collapsing, yeah I read that the other day. But don't think it's as bad across the rest of the World, this is mostly a US collapse. A collapse of the 400 year old western christian Empire that began with Spain and will end with America. 400 years of unrivaled control in trade and finance inherited by each successive version. 400 years btw is the average length of Empire throughout history.

Here in Australia, in Singapore, in Norway and a dozen other westernized nations things are still going ok. Cracks in the plaster, but no collapse imminent. This is all a movie for me, munching popcorn in Constantinople as Western Rome is overrun by Goths. Gold and Silver will make the difference for those that hold it. All else is tied to the Debt, even cryptos now. The Markets will collapse utterly this time too, they have to, to wipe out all the debts. It will be hunger games for anyone who relied on the system, just like in 1929 onward. Millions kicked out of their jobs, kicked out of their homes. I imagine the homeless camps will fill every green park, the governments will be powerless to do anything.

It's already well underway isn't it. The news focuses on drug addicts but many of the homeless are just normal people that have lost their stake in the American Dream. They are in every city too, even little cities. Okies on the move. The price of oil has been range-bound for a year or more, hanging around $75 bbl. As each month passes less and less people can afford to pay for it's products. PeakOil indeed.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Dust Bowl and the "Okie" migration of the 1930s brought in over a million migrants, many headed to the farm labor jobs in the Central Valley. A study in the 1990s indicated that about 3.75 million Californians were descendants of this population. By 1950, four million individuals, or one quarter of all persons born in Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, or Missouri, lived outside the region, primarily in the West.

Nowhere to run to this time though.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby Armageddon » Thu 31 Jul 2025, 17:32:50

The US has 10T of UST rolling over this year and not many buyers. Russia has sold all theirs and China and Japan are currently selling theirs. So instead of buyers, they are sellers.

Debt monetization preludes currency collapse. All Fiat systems in history have collapsed.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby Armageddon » Fri 01 Aug 2025, 08:41:41

The US economy adds 73,000 jobs in July, below expectations of 106,000.

May revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000,

June revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000

And with revisions, we have now *lost* 26,000 manufacturing jobs in June and July.


Yikes
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby Armageddon » Fri 01 Aug 2025, 11:09:17

258,000 jobs didn’t “vanish.”
They were never there to begin with.

This isn’t a math error.
It’s a psychological operation.
Tell people the economy’s booming…
Let them borrow, spend, invest…
Then quietly revise the numbers when no one’s watching.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Fri 01 Aug 2025, 12:45:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')How many more decades do you think is it reasonable to repeat yourself? I understand that the guy jumping out of the window ultimately hits the ground.....but it doesn't take the 20 years to get there.

I guess so, if you think they can keep printing trillions. I’m sure they can…, until they can’t.


Indeed. And every time you've claimed "can't" is arriving....it doesn't. Don't you worry Armie, you are just another old fart like the rest of us, personal doom will get you before the end of the world does, regardless of cause. I don't include GRB's and the like of course, as we'll never those are coming until they arrive.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Fri 01 Aug 2025, 13:35:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'D')ebt is going parabolic and the world has lost its appetite for UST. You cant compare what’s happening now to any time in US history.


And if I had $5 for every time you've said it before I'd have more money than your sugar-momma. But I don't have $5 for every time you said it because it is just your favorite bedtime story. I've got one, except mine is guarenteed. The Sun is getting lighter by 4,000,000 tons every second. Humanity will die.

And now I do what you do...proclaim every day that OMG THE SUN IS 4 MILLION TONS LIGHTER WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!

See how scary saying facts are when capitalized?

The difference being I am more clever, because unless you know some basic astrophysics you don't know how long it will take. And if you don't know some simple history and logic on your claim, you don't know that you were probably born with this screed stenciled across your forearm by your parents or something. So you just rinse-repeat through every blip in economic data because...wait for it...that is what doomers do.

We all learned during peak oil happening that doomers don't care WHAT the hysterical claim is, only that it sounds scary, and happens tomorrow. In your case....after a couple decades...that tattoo on your arm just insists you keep saying it out of habit at this point.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby theluckycountry » Fri 01 Aug 2025, 16:34:19

Jobs, people don't care about them until they lose theirs, then it's the end of the world. Same with everything, homes, cars, money in the bank. I read a commentator once that said the second great depression has already arrived, it just isn't equally shared. I'd go along with that. You'd have to be living in a gated estate not to notice the collapse in living standards across our nations, and the use of debt to prop up living standards.

How can a nation of people collectively owing $25 Trillion dollars possibly think things are ok? But many do? And this is basically the reason why the debt has spiraled to such ridiculous limits. Idiots wearing rose colored glasses believing they can borrow forever. Well the piper has to be paid, all debts have to be cleared eventually, so did they think they were exempt? Obviously. You're very prolific in you posting Armageddon, do you see something on the near horizon? I do. I see the Kondratieff Winter cycle in effect, Strauss and Howe's Winter cycle in force (due to end around 2030) I see the stock market totally overpriced relative to P:E ratios. And I see the classic 80 year war cycle well in force.

And more interestingly, on a societal level, I see a dark mood taking over. People are in a murmuration of discontent and despondency, and those that claim not to be are almost shrill in their insistence things are "just fine". They get angry if you say thinks are falling apart, like somehow your very words will pop their bubble of enchantment? Very strange... I think those people will the worst effected by the collapse because they haven't processed it before it came. They'll be shell shocked, like those that survived a Hurricane and are sitting in the ruins of their once proud home. I processed it decades ago, now it's all popcorn and cheers.

When everyone was turning their nose up at Gold, and more specifically Silver (which was at a 400 year low) I began buying. It was obvious, basic investment 101, buy when something is cheap. But no one else was besides us (Doomers). That's because the TV set told them specifically Not To! Greenspan told them not to, every financial advisor said Not To. It was a Barbarous relic :lol: One that has made me a LOT of money.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby Armageddon » Fri 01 Aug 2025, 17:14:07

They’ll cut rate, QE to infinity, the dollar will keep getting devalued and gold and silver will continue rise and the sheep will continue saying everything is fine.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby theluckycountry » Fri 01 Aug 2025, 23:59:29

We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Sat 02 Aug 2025, 14:40:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'T')hey’ll cut rate, QE to infinity, the dollar will keep getting devalued and gold and silver will continue rise and the sheep will continue saying everything is fine.


They aren't sheep Armie. Just uninformed. Like you. If you knew anything about the basics of how markets and macro level economics have worked in the past (let alone evolution or the geosciences)...you wouldn't have been bleating like those sheep for 20 years now and getting it wrong.

And don't forget, the Sun just keeps getting lighter every second...be afraid...be very afraid! Use it on your friends, be the life of a party! By now they are probably bored silly by decades of the endless deficit sheep bleating routine.

I would explain the physics on why this matters, but sheep wouldn't understand. All they need is an excuse to bleat about something. :)
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby theluckycountry » Sat 02 Aug 2025, 21:08:01

Perth Mint, the biggest bullion dealer in Australia, which is one of the largest Gold producers on the planet, is currently selling Gold at a 5.5% premium, but buying at a 2.9% cut off spot. This buy spread is the lowest I've ever seen. They are banking on the price of Gold being higher in the future, obviously.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby Armageddon » Sat 02 Aug 2025, 23:56:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'T')hey’ll cut rate, QE to infinity, the dollar will keep getting devalued and gold and silver will continue rise and the sheep will continue saying everything is fine.


They aren't sheep Armie. Just uninformed. Like you. If you knew anything about the basics of how markets and macro level economics have worked in the past (let alone evolution or the geosciences)...you wouldn't have been bleating like those sheep for 20 years now and getting it wrong.

And don't forget, the Sun just keeps getting lighter every second...be afraid...be very afraid! Use it on your friends, be the life of a party! By now they are probably bored silly by decades of the endless deficit sheep bleating routine.

I would explain the physics on why this matters, but sheep wouldn't understand. All they need is an excuse to bleat about something. :)



Not wrong, just early
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Sun 03 Aug 2025, 09:26:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')Not wrong, just early


Not early. Repetitive. And across decades now? Also wrong. Because we're still here, you and I aren't subsisting on long pork, and we are both doing well some 7 years after the global peak oil, and the ever increasing debt you don't like, and our living quality to date has NOTHING to do with your silver collection or my gold. And based on our age, neither of us will likely need to worry about your favorite doom scenario...just as it hasn't bothered either of us for decades now.

So yes. To date...wrong. Just as you were on peak oil, and just as you are about evolution and whales.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby Armageddon » Sun 03 Aug 2025, 10:45:25

I think the state of the world is proving I was correct. And you haven’t seen anything yet.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Sun 03 Aug 2025, 18:25:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I') think the state of the world is proving I was correct.


Which state? And which claim?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')And you haven’t seen anything yet.


We've seen global peak oil happen. And deficits in the US increase that you said would end the country. According to you, that was the thing 20 years ago. Oops. If that was the world ending...what will the next world ending be? Me still giggling over what "being right" means in your world?
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Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby Armageddon » Sun 03 Aug 2025, 20:39:51

When the 08 crises hit, how did they stop it? 15T of debt, ZIRP, bailouts, buyouts, etc. This one is 10x worse. How do you think they’ll stop this one? The consumer is already maxed out. 40% of Americans have already exhausted their unemployment benefits, maxed out their CC, and 70% dont have $1000 to their name. This will not end well. They’ve kicked the can down the road since 2008, eventually you run out of road.

I’m sure they’ll start lowering rates, QE to infinity and print tens of trillions more. Imagine what that’ll do to the dollar and inflation? Gold is telling the story in the real world. $5000 gold is on the horizon.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Sun 03 Aug 2025, 21:19:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'W')hen the 08 crises hit, how did they stop it? 15T of debt, ZIRP, bailouts, buyouts, etc. This one is 10x worse.

This one.."what"? 4% interest rates? Stock markets having recovered to past highs? 2008 was The Great Recession, based on housing. Your home lost 50% of its value now? Mine hasn't. Big financial firms collasped? Covid caused big economic dislocation, and the largest recession since the Great Depression. You'll notice you are still here, as am I, and your house didn't drop 50% in value did it? So what is 10X worse of those real events? THAT would be a disaster. But guess what? That isn't what is happening today. The government is borrowing more money. Will there be a reckoning? Probably. Will it cause you to miss your brisket? Unlikely.

What is amusing here is why do you care anymore? You got yours, and can withstand economic hardship that most can't. So...whats your beef with this boogey man you've been spouting off about for decades now? No not peak oil, even you know better than to drag out that disaster for doomers the world over.

Now demonstate that you know any more about finance/markets and economics than you do how evolution works, or peak oil? Because reality has already determined that you stink at understanding those.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
') How do you think they’ll stop this one?

Darned if I know, because I don't know what "this one" is yet. Neither do you, as the only thing you've got to complain about is the usual debt thing. But here is the thing, you've already demonstrated you don't study a topic before using it to proclaim doom....and "they" have already demonstrated more than you do by stopping the last two "End Times" wagons you've jumped on board...so how about you answer your own question? First, go figure out why you were wrong the last two times, and come back with a reasoned argument other than doing the boy who cried wolf routine. When the first two times the boy cried wolf the smart townspeople got together, and first invented bows and arrows. When the boy tried again, they brought out firearms. Extrapolate that..and next they've got artillery. So...demonstrate why the artillery won't work...you being the guy who didn't believe that bows and arrows or firearms because you lack the understanding of the problem that the folks who have such understanding do.

Don't ask me about finances. I do project level economics, up to the country level, and the geosciences. Combined with stochastic modeling. And 20 years ago I got it right, I don't have your habit of documented screwing the pooch.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')The consumer is already maxed out.

Please define this consumer. Because it must not include you and I.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armegeddon', '
')40% of Americans have already exhausted their unemployment benefits, maxed out their CC, and 70% dont have $1000 to their name.

Good thing the 60% left have so much they can fund unemployment benefits for those eligible, maxing out CC's is as bad financial management as your claims of doom based on it for 20 years now, and once upon a time I didn't have $1000 to my name. Good thing we aren't limited to our past circumstances, huh? Me doing what I do, and you collecting a sugar momma.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', ' ') This will not end well.

We know. It is what you said all those other times. Two things happened, nothing "ended" and I don't know about you but my investments did well during all the prior recoveries. Better than my gold of course, but I don't think of that as an investment...it doesn't gain value as well as markets do.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('armageddon', '
')"They've kicked the can since...
What, you weren't around when stagflation happened in the US and they kicked the can then as well? You've got to be as old as I am, so what made you forget that? Would that extend your streak of being wrong back 45 years perhaps?

[quote="armageddon" $5000 gold is on the horizon.[/quote]
So what. My market funds have beaten my gold investment of the early 80's like a red headed step child.
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