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THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged) Pt. 1

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 28 Jul 2025, 21:00:18

People really believe inflation is only 2%? lol.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 28 Jul 2025, 22:28:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'P')eople really believe inflation is only 2%? lol.


2% was the number the Fed wants, I thought the current number was more 4%. It has come down from the big numbers after Covid. But it is what people believe, as compared to the real number, because what people believe turns into a psychological effect as to how they FEEL.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 28 Jul 2025, 23:45:36

Inflation is closer to 10% in the real world when you factor in things that matter, like food, energy, healthy insurance, property taxes, real estate taxes to name a few.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 29 Jul 2025, 13:46:55

I love talking to people about the debt when they say the government needs to cut spending and balance the budget

I tell them, we are adding 3T of debt each year. Here is a piece of paper and pencil, write down what we can cut. Here’s a hint…. SS, Medicaid, Medicare, military and debt payment eat up 120% of the tax receipts.

I’ll hang up and listen.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 29 Jul 2025, 14:21:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I')nflation is closer to 10% in the real world when you factor in things that matter, like food, energy, healthy insurance, property taxes, real estate taxes to name a few.


Food I don't track much (the wife buys what she wants and that is that), my energy costs are down, not up, health insurance hasn't budged in years, and property taxes haven't moved either.

Does Missouri really have all these kinds of changes regularly? 10% a year should be causing riots in the streets of Kansas City or something.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 29 Jul 2025, 14:25:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I') love talking to people about the debt when they say the government needs to cut spending and balance the budget

I love talking to people about peak oil when they pretend it happened 17 years ago. It was far more fun when it was supposedly happening 20 years and telling them they were full of crap. THOSE were the good old days....trying to figure out how many could be so misinformed and mislead by so few who knew so little.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')I tell them, we are adding 3T of debt each year. Here is a piece of paper and pencil, write down what we can cut. Here’s a hint…. SS, Medicaid, Medicare, military and debt payment eat up 120% of the tax receipts.

I’ll hang up and listen.


Good thing it hasn't caused collapse to happen! Maybe next $3 trillion? $6T? $20T?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 29 Jul 2025, 15:40:45

Everybody on the Nextdoor App around here are complaining about their increase in property tax and their electric bill increase. Same with my Naples area Nextdoor app, along with their insurance. Also, the stories I read, the new generation can’t afford a new house.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 29 Jul 2025, 15:42:50

Maybe this is the collapse. It’s just not a single event.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 29 Jul 2025, 18:47:23

There is so much data from past collapses that correlates with our times it's hard not to draw such a conclusion, especially regarding finance and the global markets. But if I were to write a list of all the headwinds we are facing, Climate changes, FF depletion, overpopulation, our degenerate social orders, the vast intermixing of races (which never ends well). With all these and more I'd have to conclude we are facing Armageddon :P But I'm serious. I'm just glad I'm relatively old, we have lived through the best of times, and some of us still are in fact.

I doubt anyone buying a ticket on the Titanic inquired about how many life boats there were. As it turned out there was not nearly enough because the owners didn't care, they just followed the lax regulations enforced at the time. Hubris will protect the passengers is one way to look at it, and Hubris is protecting the masses today.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 29 Jul 2025, 18:54:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'E')verybody on the Nextdoor App around here are complaining about their increase in property tax and their electric bill increase.

Unfortunate. Maybe living in Missouri isn't the cheap ruralish kind of place I thought it was. Or alternatively is poverty stricken in many ways and a consequence is "hose down those for $$ that own property"?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
') Also, the stories I read, the new generation can’t afford a new house.

You've got kids, how did they do with houses? My daughter bought her first before she was 25 in the most expensive non-coastal market in the US. It certainly didn't look all that difficult from a parent's perspective. She asked to live with us for about 8 months to save up the downpayment, and that was it.

The boy doesn't have much interest in leaving yet. He's starting his first full time job (as compared to interships and something sketchy for 6 months where they promised full time but did part time until some project was done, then laid everyone off) Thursday working for the state of Colorado. Not a bad place to land a fulltime gig.

Other than the fact property taxes aren't changing much, I can't say they are low, compared to more backward/rural/hoabunkle type places in the US. No disrespect meant, I grew up in backwater/hoahbunkle and can switch back to that persona in a heartbeat when traveling in those regions. I don't drive anything cityfied snooty, motorcycle or car both from the last century (EV and nice cars stay at home) when in those parts of the country. Just a benign older dude, balding and bearded who doesn't stand out, I tell hunting stories and working man stories and stuff from back in the day (insinuating I am still hoahbunkle) and fit in fine. Just don't say the word "scientist", don't EVER use the word "probability", and they'll tar and feather you if you mention your job being "quantifying uncertainty in complex systems"....probably crucify you on the spot. Such are the ways of....certain folks in the US. It is almost relaxing though, being uncomplicated and simple compared to the modern world. I've asked the wife if we can just get a small old farm place and have fluffy cows and maybe those little pygmy goats or something, I can shoot groundhogs out the window of the kitchen like I did as a kid, all the cool hoahbunkle stuff. No chance. She's a big city girl now.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 29 Jul 2025, 19:02:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'M')aybe this is the collapse. It’s just not a single event.


One explanation. But those FAMOUS.... AND who once posted here before coming famous sure didn't mince words in the same moment that you fell for (i.e. turned out to be full of speculative nonsense) peak oil and collapse and whatnot. California got the $7/gal gas! Were any of your kids drafted? And you and "someone told you 10% inflation"...HAH...where is the 50%? And Matt wasn't JUST an unemployed ambulance chaser, he then became a palm reader and later a substitute teacher!!! Totally accomplished professionally and quoted in the US Congress by Rep Bartlett! Whoever feeds you your information has NOTHING on Matt!

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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 29 Jul 2025, 19:38:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'E')verybody on the Nextdoor App around here are complaining about their increase in property tax and their electric bill increase. Same with my Naples area Nextdoor app, along with their insurance. Also, the stories I read, the new generation can’t afford a new house.


Nothing new there. There are documented periods in history, some lasting up to 100 years, when food and housing costs outrun wages. It's a miserable time for the peasantry, which is basically what all low wage earners are.
It all boils down to the population size and it's resource base. That's why America did so well in the 20th century, and why it's living standards are now collapsing. As hard as it sounds you have to insulate your life from the losers to some degree.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 30 Jul 2025, 12:24:50

The top 10% are creating 70% of the economy. The wealth disparity is getting worse by the day.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 30 Jul 2025, 13:42:25

https://x.com/wallstreetmav/status/1950 ... aq1VBSCqtg


More inflation data in the real world
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 30 Jul 2025, 16:47:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'T')he top 10% are creating 70% of the economy. The wealth disparity is getting worse by the day.

It's crazy isn't it, but without their bubbles and all the cashflow they generate things would be a lot worse. People rail against them but you don't have to buy in, People can choose not to waste their money, let the illiterate masses buy the battcars and the AI products, pay Bezos by using Amazon. Amazon is a scam, a lazy persons way to buy cheap Chinese junk at inflated prices.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 30 Jul 2025, 16:53:11

All government stats are totally fake! Manipulated to show a good economy. Years ago a lot of sites like shadow stats came online to show the truth but no one was interested. People just don't care? It's like they are all fatalists now.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 30 Jul 2025, 22:49:14

Is this website down to just you two guys?
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 31 Jul 2025, 08:29:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I')s this website down to just you two guys?

Well just you and me as far as I'm concerned, I have the other one blocked. Cozy isn't it :)

Here's a BIG Red flag
Copper price collapses by 20% as US excludes refined metal from tariffs
https://www.mining.com/copper-price-col ... m-tariffs/
The last huge collapse occurred in Sep Oct 2008, as the Global financial crises was breaking and the Dow crashed. The bottom for copper was Dec 2008, for the DOW, March 2009. Here is the chart going back to those days
https://www.macrotrends.net/1476/copper ... chart-data

They don't call it Dr. Copper for nothing. It will be worth watching to see if this fall extends.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n financial markets, copper is often nicknamed "Dr. Copper" because its price fluctuations are considered a good indicator of the overall health of the global economy. This nickname stems from the metal's widespread use in various industries, including construction, electronics, and transportation, making its price sensitive to changes in economic activity.


We all know (nearly all) that the markets will have a massive collapse soon, This is as good as any way to diagnose it.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 31 Jul 2025, 13:20:57

I really don’t see how they’ll keep this thing afloat much longer. We’ve seen them kick th can down the road since the 2008 crises by 12 years of ZIRP and 30T of printed money. The real fundamentals of the economy are in bad shape and getting worse by day. I’m not sure they can lower rates this time around without crashing the dollar. Are they out of magic bullets? I think so. Inflate is all they have left. Got gold?
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 31 Jul 2025, 14:14:02

Is this a good indicator of the true state of the economy? I’d say yes


https://x.com/stealthqe4/status/1950913 ... aq1VBSCqtg
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