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THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged) Pt. 1

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 25 Jul 2025, 13:20:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'T')he US is so fucked :lol:


Well, considering your country never made it out from under the King and has ALWAYS been fucked..or required to provide this service to your King.....I guess American exceptionalism has done pretty well holding it off.

We'll see how things go. Collapse/doom/EndTimers like you are dime a dozen, and have been around for centuries. It is so common that wiki has an an entire writeup on the likes of you. Not in the sense of your uneducated ignorance or lack of IQ points in general, but near religious zealotry about endtimes.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 25 Jul 2025, 23:37:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'G')overnments and central banks are loading up on gold like never before in history. They know what’s coming. Is the global debt / financial collapse due to peak oil?


I think financial collapse is baked into the cake with the fiat central bank system, and it should have rolled over in 73, but by going off the Gold standard they were able to extend the bubbles with almost unlimited debt. Cheap oil certainly fueled all this as it kept the real economy intact, and since the peak in 2008, it's all gone into reverse hasn't it. The real economy of "stuff" has been in decline and the financial trading schemes have gone completely off the reservation.

I think a big part of it is the pension schemes, they have absorbed a lot of spending that would have gone on in the real economy if that money had actually been put into productive investments. Instead it's gone into bubble stocks and real estate. When the lights go out Amazon, Tesla, Facebook, Microsoft and all the others go to near zero and the savings of 3 generations vanishes in this air. If we have Gold and Silver were safe, without it, you'll be eating out of dumpsters.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 26 Jul 2025, 12:05:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'G')overnments and central banks are loading up on gold like never before in history. They know what’s coming. Is the global debt / financial collapse due to peak oil?


I think financial collapse is baked into the cake with the fiat central bank system, and it should have rolled over in 73, but by going off the Gold standard they were able to extend the bubbles with almost unlimited debt.


Point noted. And parrots can't think. And you are now pretending your thoughts aren't just parroting doomers going back a quarter century now.

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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 26 Jul 2025, 12:35:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'G')overnments and central banks are loading up on gold like never before in history. They know what’s coming. Is the global debt / financial collapse due to peak oil?


I think financial collapse is baked into the cake with the fiat central bank system, and it should have rolled over in 73, but by going off the Gold standard they were able to extend the bubbles with almost unlimited debt.


Point noted. And parrots can't think. And you are now pretending your thoughts aren't just parroting doomers going back a quarter century now.

Image



Not even closed to be comparable. 37T US debt with over 1T paid in interest and rising. Running a 3T deficit. That’s the real deficit. We are adding 3T to the debt each year. Mandatory spending which includes military, entitlements and debt payment eat up the entire tax receipts. People can keep their head in the sand if they want, but something is about to blow. Probably why Russia dumped all their UST and China and BRICS are also. Everybody is running to gold.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 26 Jul 2025, 14:24:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')Not even closed to be comparable. 37T US debt with over 1T paid in interest and rising. Running a 3T deficit. That’s the real deficit. People can keep their head in the sand if they want, but something is about to blow.


Let me point out one thing, a particularly salient point considering both your peak oil AND interest in the US debt load.

And that point is this. You were saying THE SAME THING about both peak oil, and US government debt, as early as you began posting on this website.

And here you are....20 years later....SAYING THE SAME THING. 20 years ago...DEBT IS EXPLODING! DOOM!.....20 years ago...PEAK OIL IS COMING....DOOM!.

So we know, RIGHT NOW, that your ability to predict the timing of any claim related to oil, or US government debt, has at LEAST an over under of 20 years.

This spread hasn't been defined by me, but by YOU. There is one other alternative, to your ability to predict a crisis related to oil or US debt, and that is that you are clueless as to the when. We know this because you have, for as long as you've been posting here, saying the same thing.

"Okay, yeah, it didn't happen the last 3 times I said it was coming....BUT JUST WAIT UNTIL NEXT YEAR!"

I find it interesting that you even CARE anymore. You hit the sugar momma jackpot, you are an old fart like many of us here...ENJOY!!! You said you lived in Missouri, which sort of sucks, but you had ATVs and places to run around on them and new money to buy new stuff....isn't that enough? You being old and retired, you don't have much more time left than the rest of us. Enjoy your health and wealth and lifestyle! If you had kids, and worry about the future (regardless of WHAT future you want to imagine) make sure THEY will be ok. I don't recall you mentioning kids involved or not, but those of us who are parents certainly think more along those lines, as opposed to "how many more times can I declare THE END IS NIGH1!! and not object to the laughter a year or two later when I was wrong...again...or the 5th time or 10th".

Enjoy! Armie. Eat some of that brisket you once talked about....there is no more requirement to subsistute some faux doom for your fear of mortality, get booze...find a beach...just...ENJOY!!

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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 26 Jul 2025, 15:19:21

Believe me, I enjoy life. Big house, condo in Naples, farm in southern Missouri with 150 acres with a house, barns, atv’s, 9 acre lake filled with bass. But that doesn’t mean I don’t see what happening. Also, I didn’t marry a sugar momma, we have been married for 31 years and well before she came into money.

Kids, yes, 2 daughters, 29 and 27 and 3 grandkids. Life is great, but things are about to change… hope you’re prepared.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 26 Jul 2025, 17:12:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'B')elieve me, I enjoy life. Big house, condo in Naples, farm in southern Missouri with 150 acres with a house, barns, atv’s, 9 acre lake filled with bass.

Of course!! Having a sugarmomma is a great thing, all us guys should have one. But some of us have to make it under our own steam, and even if we don't have your kind of success through marriage, some of us achieve professionally accolades of a more...personal and enduring nature. Can you believe that last week I received 3 notifications from Elsevier that a paper I authored in the last century was being quoted by some professors doing research on US deep gas estimates across the MidContinent? Shit! I always thought that thing was a toad! The peak oil work I did a decade ago? Bubbcuss. Go figure.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')But that doesn’t mean I don’t see what happening.

Didn't say you didn't. I said you ALWAYS see what is happening and ALWAYS draw the same conclusion and have been absolutely wrong for decades. You have certainly been steadfast in your mechanisms of doom...and wrong every single time. Which means you can't predict doom using your scheme for crap. You can keep repeating yourself of course, but that just makes you look sad.

Don't you have some new thoughts or ideas, to counteract and explain why you got it wrong all those other times?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armagedon', '
')Also, I didn’t marry a sugar momma, we have been married for 31 years and well before she came into money.

I haven't forgoten. But I was trying to be nice by not mentioning that. It seems kinds of weird, a man having earned a rich father in law instead....I thought sugar momma sounded nicer, as opposed to something closer to the truth that implies "couldn't get dick under your own steam".

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')Kids, yes, 2 daughters, 29 and 27 and 3 grandkids. Life is great, but things are about to change… hope you’re prepared.

Change...the grandkids are going to be the first in the family to go to college? :)
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 26 Jul 2025, 17:27:10

My wife graduated from Maryville here in STL, and both of my daughters graduated from Missouri. I started my successful construction company at the age of 20 and retired recently. I got to live life my way. It’s been a great ride so far. Wouldn’t change a thing. Met my wife our Sr years in HS. We didn’t need her trust fund to have a great life, but true, our house wouldn’t be as big, wouldn’t have the Naples condo or the farm.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 26 Jul 2025, 18:50:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'M')y wife graduated from Maryville here in STL, and both of my daughters graduated from Missouri. I started my successful construction company at the age of 20 and retired recently. I got to live life my way. It’s been a great ride so far.


Best not talk that way around here. Most are on the bones of their arse, they just get spiteful and envious when they hear about people making good in life.

Not wanting to brag, but I have noticed that the people who get into Gold early are always self-made men, those with their own businesses, those making the good income. Two friends I have went into it back in the early 00's, one had built up a big electrical business and bought a string of laundromats. The other owned an office furnishing company with lucrative government contracts. Both saw the value of Gold, perhaps with one as a way of keeping cash off the books :P But either way they had the mindset that could see through the lies of modern society.

I sometimes think it only comes from having to structure your business to avoid taxes and similar downsides, regulations etc. If you work for the man, a wage and tax slave so to speak, you never have control over your income in that sense. You just take what your given, obey all the rules and pay the taxes they prescribe. These sort of people, the vast majority of people, never seem to wake up?

I remember a news story from back in the 1980's of an aussie billionaire, Kerry Packer. His penthouse office had been robbed and in the story was an account of what was in the safe. A handgun, and Gold Bullion was among the contents. It's the wealthy person's asset.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 26 Jul 2025, 20:31:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'M')y wife graduated from Maryville here in STL, and both of my daughters graduated from Missouri. I started my successful construction company at the age of 20 and retired recently. I got to live life my way. It’s been a great ride so far. Wouldn’t change a thing. Met my wife our Sr years in HS. We didn’t need her trust fund to have a great life, but true, our house wouldn’t be as big, wouldn’t have the Naples condo or the farm.


Well good for you. I remember you talking about being a working man of some sort, and discussing what cage you were going to buy, one compared to another, a long time ago.

And always the fascination with PMs, particularly silver, and falling for every ridiculous peak oil claim that came down the pike.

Global peak oil happened 7 years ago, and US probably hit peak oil again this year, after its last one in 2019. And no one seems to even notice anymore. Everyone has learned what I was trying to tell them 20 years ago, just as you were telling folks to buy PMs. And government debt. And PMs and government debt did go up. Just not the doom that was supposed to arrive with it.

Hopefully you squirreled away some fundage in normal market tracking funds to turn more than you need into even more? If only to then buy even MORE silver?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 26 Jul 2025, 20:48:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'M')y wife graduated from Maryville here in STL, and both of my daughters graduated from Missouri. I started my successful construction company at the age of 20 and retired recently. I got to live life my way. It’s been a great ride so far.


Best not talk that way around here. Most are on the bones of their arse, they just get spiteful and envious when they hear about people making good in life.


Oh now Lucky, you need to define "making good". We already knew that Armageddon was once a regular working man and had hit the jackpot in the wife department, and his kids seem to have done fine as well.

You are so embarassed about your son you can't speak a word of him. Is it because your lack of education and its obviousness in this forum stings more than a little? And apples not falling far from the tree...well....you don't even talk about riding motorcycles with him, let alone his academic accomplishments. It should be easy, if he made it past the 9th grade he is probably already better educated then you. You could brag about that if nothing else. I've got both the boys and the girls motorcycles in the garage right now (the daughter felt sorry for me, waiting for mine to arrive early next week so she lent me hers) and I was enjoying it this very day. Thin seat though, but quite spritely and nimble. Does your boy ride?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')Not wanting to brag, but I have noticed that the people who get into Gold early are always self-made men, those with their own businesses, those making the good income.

Well certainly as a self made man I got into gold early, but that was just on a dumbass youngster lark. Hasn't done me a damn bit of good since. Haven't needed a business to make a good income though, being a professional in a weird field where folks on the other side of the planet, like CSIRO, come knocking when they have need, has kept me doing fine.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')I remember a news story from back in the 1980's of an aussie billionaire, Kerry Packer. His penthouse office had been robbed and in the story was an account of what was in the safe. A handgun, and Gold Bullion was among the contents. It's the wealthy person's asset.


My gold asset gains have been paltry compared to 40 years of investing in market tracking funds. Their growth in value has revealed my original gold investment to be a poor performer. But then, I graduated from high school. And then some.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 27 Jul 2025, 03:54:56

Massive inflation is what I see ahead, all across the western world in fact. What we have seen in the last 4 years is just a foretaste.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 27 Jul 2025, 10:14:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'M')assive inflation is what I see ahead..

I moron that can't read a chart showing no peak oil 17 years ago is now seeing ahead? A tomato has a better chance of "seeing ahead".
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 28 Jul 2025, 09:35:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'r')ecent reports from July 2025 indicate that the annual inflation rate in the US is 2.7%, the highest it has been since February 2025, meaning inflation is still a significant concern

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ip-off America? From car rentals to coffee, inflation is rampant
Supply problems, fuel prices and corporate greed all contributed to pushing costs higher for families and tourists
https://www.thetimes.com/us/news-today/ ... -h8kkfmgcb PAYWALL (I could tell you how to get around it but figure it out for yourself)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')From Eggs to Hotels, Prices Soar as Inflation Redefines Daily Life
...A budget hotel room in Nashville can now cost $500 for the weekend—without breakfast—and a single cup of coffee can cost $7. Rental cars are also commanding premium rates, with four days in a midsize Toyota Camry easily topping $670.

It’s so bad in America that a foreign news organization dug into the pricey details. The Times of London reported that inflation, which began accelerating in 2021, has left American consumers grappling with the most persistent cost increases in decades. According to NerdWallet data cited in the report, the impact has been felt across every income bracket, fueling a growing sense that even basic experiences are becoming unaffordable.
https://www.insightnews.com/business/fr ... 1ca05.html

This is what you experience if you go outside your door. Not a pretty sight, and with tariffs, it will only get worse.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 28 Jul 2025, 09:49:51

Why Gold Is No Longer Just an “Alternative” It’s Becoming a Strategic Asset

A good read for those on the fence, a good confirmation for those long term holders.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hristopher Cummins
Senior Analyst and Investment strategist
Published Jul 23, 2025

Over the past 12 months, gold has quietly evolved from a classic inflation hedge into something far more consequential: a core component of sovereign reserve portfolios, high-net-worth diversification strategies, and institutional asset allocation models. For those of us in investment management, this shift is no longer cyclical, it’s structural.
Allocations Are Rising, and Fast

Recent surveys from HSBC, Invesco, and BNP Paribas Wealth Management confirm what many have suspected: gold is no longer a fringe asset. In fact:

HSBC reports allocations to gold among affluent investors have more than doubled, from 5% to 11%.
Family offices across Asia and the Middle East routinely hold 5–10% in physical gold.
The World Gold Council cites three consecutive years of central bank net purchases >1,000 tonnes, an unprecedented streak in modern monetary history.

And it’s not just demand, it’s who is buying:

U.S. clients are increasing exposure as a hedge against dollar weakness and fiscal instability.
Sovereign buyers like China, India, Turkey, and Russia are redirecting reserve growth into gold instead of U.S. Treasuries.
Younger generations (Gen Z and Millennials) are leading the charge into alternatives, with gold among the fastest-growing allocations.

Gold’s Institutional Case Has Changed

For decades, gold was the insurance policy in the back of the portfolio. But in today’s environment, defined by policy fragmentation, currency debasement, and liquidity imbalances, gold is doing something different.

It’s becoming: ...
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-gold ... mins-nznfe
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 28 Jul 2025, 16:03:31

The US debt is about to explode and the world is losing its appetite for UST. Monetizing the debt is the final stage prior to currency collapse. Probably why governments and central banks are flocking to gold. Russia and China are creating their own gold / silver exchange as we speak. The game is changing
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 28 Jul 2025, 17:05:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'T')he US debt is about to explode and the world is losing its appetite for UST.

Of course. Just as was claimed 10-15-20 years ago. The argument hasn't changed, only the numbers. And the fact that the claim hasn't been substantiated by the claimed consequence. Same as peak oil, except peak oil has already come and gone and no one noticed. Could disaster from both, or either, be true? Yes. After all, after the boy cried wolf...dozens of times...across decades....the wolf did arrive. And just as obviously, when the wolf did arrive, and the boy was rewarded for his forewarning, it turns out the villagers invented firearms.

This one applies directly to peak oil. But the same concept goes for debt. After all, if the debt scenario were real, as has been claimed, we'd all be living in a Wehrmacht Germany 5-10-15 years ago.

Look around Armie. Any squatters trying to outwhelm your 150 acres to take away what is yours? How many times have you used firearms to defend your land? Do you have claymores in the trees to keep the squatters away, or land mines to protect the perimeter? I doubt it. Why not? Because the end you've been claiming for 5-10-20 years didn't arrive.

Do you even know why your scenario has failed across such a long period of time?

Supposition: What happens if the US debt keeps growing? How many MORE times can the claim be made and not be true? Or, if you prefer a time reference, how many MORE decades can this doom not arrive?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')Monetizing the debt is the final stage prior to currency collapse. Probably why governments and central banks are flocking to gold. Russia and China are creating their own gold / silver exchange as we speak. The game is changing


But of course. Just like the other times...with small changes in the details.

Do you understand why repetition of something through time doesn't lend itself to credibility on the topic? Or the claimant? Do you know what a professional JOKE the educated peak oilers are nowadays? The academics, those who wrote up stupid consequences in science rags? Most have quietly faded away, but not all.

Do you know how the professional arc of those of us who knew better in real time went? Quite well. :-D
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 28 Jul 2025, 17:33:46

We are paying for it through inflation. 7 out of 10 Americans don’t have $1000. I told you a few years ago we’d have multi trillion dollar deficits indefinitely. Here we are. Saying everything is ok is like jumping out of a 50 story building and halfway down, saying, see, this isn’t so bad.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 28 Jul 2025, 19:23:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'W')e are paying for it through inflation.


After "the greatest recession since the Great Depression" that Trump left the country with in 2020, inflation did get high, government spending and post covid stimulus money. But it isn't particularly high right now. So we PAID for it, past tense, because it isn't a big deal right now. Sure, the Fed would like it more around 2%, but 4% isn't particularly high.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
') 7 out of 10 Americans don’t have $1000.

Nothing to do with inflation. And what has this metric been through time? If most Americans NEVER have had $1000 it is irrelevant. There have been time when I didn't have $1000 in cash...but had 50oz of gold coins laying around.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')I told you a few years ago we’d have multi trillion dollar deficits indefinitely. Here we are.

Well, I'd have to review what you wrote first, and "indefinately" hasn't happened yet. You also claimed that the world world would end, and your silver would be great for trading for whatever you needed during your end times scenarios. So...have you traded away all your silver to support your lavish lifestyle, or has life been good for you, you still have your silver, and there has been ZIPPO consequence to that government debt for you?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'S')aying everything is ok is like jumping out of a 50 story building and halfway down, saying, see, this isn’t so bad.

Considering you've been claiming this angle for decades now...your analogy only works if you jumped out of the international space station.

Repeating a consequence that is now some decades late isn't a measure of credability on the idea. Any more than your claims of the consequences of peak oil.

DId global peak oil 7 years ago bother you at all? Because it has HAPPENED....you have fallen out of the building and hit the ground. And....turns out nothing happened to you in the least.

How many more times do you give yourself to be wrong? Another 5? Another 10?
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 28 Jul 2025, 19:54:49

If people want to have a Shit, go over to the State of California thread, that's what it's it there for.

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We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
theluckycountry
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
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Joined: Tue 20 Jul 2021, 18:08:48
Location: Australia
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