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THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged) Pt. 1

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 07 Jul 2025, 19:43:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t first glance, gold’s outperformance relative to silver may seem mysterious from a supply perspective. In recent years, gold mining supply has been around 97 million troy ounces whereas silver mining output has been around 800 million (Figures 4 and 5). Mining production of both gold and silver peaked in the mid-2010s, fell in the late 2010s and then stabilized. Secondary supply (recycled metal) has been rising but secondary supply tends to respond to price changes rather than drive them.

https://www.cmegroup.com/insights/econo ... ratio.html

Secondary supply, that's the silver bars we holders have been stacking up for 20 years. I was buying kilo bars @$250 aussie, then $500, 800 odd and the last batch @ around $1200. Today? $2000/kg. It's common to buy them in a case of 18 bricks, that's about as much as you want to carry to your car in a backpack. Then you hide them away in a hole in the ground or in a secure bolted down safe. If you go with the polypipe hole strategy bury them under a concrete path out back, that will defeat the metal detectors as they will be overwhelmed by the ferrous metal signal.

This is mostly overkill though as providing you bought them for cash and make sure you weren't followed back to your car no one but you knows you have them. Naturally when talking about them on the internet use anonymous accounts, a VPN, and slightly obscure any personal details about yourself. Yes people have been robbed of their metals because loose lips sink ships. The internet is a sewer, never forget that. It's full of rats and cockroaches and every evil entity you can imagine, all lurking to see what they can scam or steal.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 07 Jul 2025, 20:13:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he correlation between gold and silver prices is strong....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTkvYKNoZFo


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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 07 Jul 2025, 20:16:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t first glance, gold’s outperformance relative to silver may seem mysterious from a supply perspective.

https://www.cmegroup.com/insights/econo ... ratio.html

Indeed...very mysterious for parrots.....

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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AgentR11 » Wed 09 Jul 2025, 12:41:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'T')hese are the sunset years of the oil age, and while you're staring in rapture at the beautiful golden disc on the hill top it will soon set and take all that the oil age built with it. All investments in oil heavy industries will be come worthless overnight.


There's no reason to suspect such an asymptote, no singularity of oil production is provably on the horizon. We'll get what is probably worse, a slow grind down the slope at some point in the future when production numbers do start falling steadily, inexorably. Each day of decline, currency buys less, and you get paid less for the same work, down into the abyss of what we currently think of as poverty, but which is really just the normal state of human existence. Human civilizations have existed for thousands of years without access to fossil fuels; and after this brief, shining moment of oily goodness passes, human civilizations will continue on for thousands of years. How they remember this era, a thousand years in the future will probably resemble the rose tinted glass look we often give the Renaissance period of Europe. A period where most people had to work hard in the muck just to get enough food to avoid starvation.

So how will gold and silver behave on that long grind down, how to use gold or silver to avoid tragedy, or at least take the edge off the consequences of real declines in oil production. How do I take a one ounce bar of gold and turn it into a few months of supplies. When the property tax man comes, can I pay him in gold. (yes for me, odd law in Texas, though I know not how it would work mechanically). Or a silver dollar coin, $36 today, can it feed us for the day, but how many silver coins do people keep around, would have to be a bucket full to be meaningful.

I suspect gold will hold its value relative to the consumable commodities needed for life and comfort throughout any foreseeable downturn, but the trick will be in trying to convert it from a tiny little bar into those consumables... without getting gank'ed.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 09 Jul 2025, 18:11:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'T')hese are the sunset years of the oil age, and while you're staring in rapture at the beautiful golden disc on the hill top it will soon set and take all that the oil age built with it. All investments in oil heavy industries will be come worthless overnight.


There's no reason to suspect such an asymptote, no singularity of oil production is provably on the horizon. We'll get what is probably worse, a slow grind down the slope at some point in the future when production numbers do start falling steadily, inexorably.


A good post AgentR11, but let me first say that I wasn't alluding to an asymptote, to a singularity as you presume, no need to draw such conclusions. Even when the sun has set the sky is light for some time after. First we proceed to Civil twilight, then Nautical and finally Astronomical twilight. As an astronomer I'm very familiar with this process, and after it has reached completion, on a moonless night, you will see the zodiacal light band form in the sky. This is basically sunlight reflected back to earth from interplanetary dust etc, but only along the ecliptic where the common zodiac constellations reside.

Naturally there will be oil in the future, but the process of depletion will be rapid for us personally because of how many cars and trucks we have put on the road. According to the 2022 EIA accounts, and this is something they wouldn't lie about, transportation consumes 66.6% of all oil. The devils number... We are the low hanging fruit.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'd')own into the abyss of what we currently think of as poverty, but which is really just the normal state of human existence.

Well I'm glad someone sees it, it's just life before oil isn't it, life as it always was.

In the West a good amount of the miles are frivolous miles. Even the miles driven to a job could be considered frivolous if you could get a job closer or use public transport. This is the low hanging fruit, When and how will we lose access to our private cars? It's been a motivating factor for the EVidiots I'm sure but their adoption was way too early, by a few decades or more I'd guess. First all the third and second world would lose their access don't you think? After all it's just a matter of wealth, and in 20 years if we're having real problems in the West it will be financial concerns that drive people out of their cars. Simply put, unemployed people with few assets don't drive. There are many ways to push people out of cars, expensive toll roads, high registration fees, All things trucking companies can easily pass on to the consumer and which makes the consumer that much poorer and unable to afford their own personal vehicle. What good an EV then if you can't afford it?
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 09 Jul 2025, 18:47:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')Naturally there will be oil in the future, but the process of depletion will be rapid for us personally because of how many cars and trucks we have put on the road.

You mean...it won't be rapid for those of us happily not using ICE powered machines to do what we do. The Neanderthal types stuck with ICE machines because...well....they can't learn....are the ones who might be bummed by the consequences of their poor decisions.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby careinke » Wed 09 Jul 2025, 19:45:04

Sorry been busy, but I calculated the week so far. Once again, Gold loses. Just from yesterday to today, 1 BTC picked up over $2k against Gold, and I do hold over 1 BTC. :-D

7 July: 1BTC = 32.797 Troy Ounces of Gold
8 July: 1BTC = 32.889 Troy Ouncers of Gold
9 July: 1BTC = 33.590 Troy Ounces of Gold

HFSP, everyone buys BTC at the price they deserve.

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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby careinke » Thu 10 Jul 2025, 16:18:30

Well the US market just closed.

10 July: 1 BTC = 34.124 Troy Ounces of Gold, setting an all time high for BTC vs gold. We also hit an all time high for BTC vs $US, and BTC vs Average US housing cost. :-D :) 8)

Getting the hint yet Unlucky? No? HFSP.

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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 10 Jul 2025, 17:14:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'W')ell the US market just closed.

10 July: 1 BTC = 34.124 Troy Ounces of Gold, setting an all time high for BTC vs gold. We also hit an all time high for BTC vs $US, and BTC vs Average US housing cost. :-D :) 8)

Getting the hint yet Unlucky? No? HFSP.

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You should rush out and sell some BTC and buy gold! And then lose some money...and come back and REALLY yuck it up over the village parrot!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 11 Jul 2025, 07:58:35

Gold price
6mths up 17%
1 years up 41%
5 years up 95%
20 years up 800%

800/20= a 40% annualized return. What stock portfolio ever gained that? And no crashes or fear of crashes. Gold protects your savings by staying ahead of inflation, always has, no doubt always will. But people don't think in terms of savings, that's like money in the bank and everyone knows bank interest is lousy. So if you want to have enough money in retirement you have to "invest" in "instruments" that give a "compound rate of return" What's the average now? The average compound rate of return on stocks is typically around 10% per annum, before adjusting for inflation. When taking inflation into account the average return is typically 6% to 7%.

Sound familiar? I remember a Woman who was getting her clients 12%, back before the GFC. It was going into shonky mezzanine fund investments and the directors scarpered with nearly all of it. 12% on Nothing! 200 million vanished overnight and she and her husband were freaking out because a class action against them was forming.

Do you really want to put up with 10%, when 40% is on offer? Look at the DOW, the rigged DOW and S&P and Nasduck. The Dow goes from 36k in 2021 to 28k in 2022, to 44.5k today. It's done well lately, but we all know what likely comes next. And all the fees and exit taxes, so complex it's no wonder people just toss it all in the lap of a faceless "adviser" and go back to their 9~5 job. Face it, you have been entrained, trained by government, bankers, and a Wall street market system to put your life savings into "Their" schemes. You're not free, you're a rat in a maze.


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We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby careinke » Fri 11 Jul 2025, 13:34:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'G')old price
6mths up 17%
1 years up 41%
5 years up 95%
20 years up 800%

800/20= a 40% annualized return. What stock portfolio ever gained that? And no crashes or fear of crashes. Gold protects your savings by staying ahead of inflation, always has, no doubt always will. But people don't think in terms of savings, that's like money in the bank and everyone knows bank interest is lousy. So if you want to have enough money in retirement you have to "invest" in "instruments" that give a "compound rate of return" What's the average now? The average compound rate of return on stocks is typically around 10% per annum, before adjusting for inflation. When taking inflation into account the average return is typically 6% to 7%.

Sound familiar? I remember a Woman who was getting her clients 12%, back before the GFC. It was going into shonky mezzanine fund investments and the directors scarpered with nearly all of it. 12% on Nothing! 200 million vanished overnight and she and her husband were freaking out because a class action against them was forming.

Do you really want to put up with 10%, when 40% is on offer? Look at the DOW, the rigged DOW and S&P and Nasduck. The Dow goes from 36k in 2021 to 28k in 2022, to 44.5k today. It's done well lately, but we all know what likely comes next. And all the fees and exit taxes, so complex it's no wonder people just toss it all in the lap of a faceless "adviser" and go back to their 9~5 job. Face it, you have been entrained, trained by government, bankers, and a Wall street market system to put your life savings into "Their" schemes. You're not free, you're a rat in a maze.


Image

Image


Geez unlucky you are very bad at this.

First, you don't seem to be able to figure out how to calculate Annualized Returns. I'm NOT going to show you how to do it, look it up. I will however give you the correct answer the Annualized Return, using your own numbers for 20 years, is 11.61% per year, not 40.

Second, why are you trying to compare a single asset gold, to stock funds which are NOT single assets? Here are some examples of single assets: Gold, Silver, Wheat, Copper, Pork Bellies, BITCOIN, Eth, Diamonds, TESLA, AMZN, etc. etc.

Third, actually everything else in the post holds no value. So I will give you another hint. If gold is up 800% over 20 years, it means it has grown by a factor of 9x (800% gain = 9 times the original value).

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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby careinke » Fri 11 Jul 2025, 14:12:27

Unlucky,

Don't think I didn't noticed you used 20 years because BTC has not been around that long. So, since I got into BTC in 2024 I ran the Annualized Return of BTC for the last 10 years, low and behold it turns out to be about 71.6% per year.

Since I know you haven't been able to figure out the math yet, I ran the same numbers for gold over the last ten years for you.

Annualized return for Gold over the past 10 years is around 10.1% per year.

Basically I quit buying jewelry around 2004, (left Saudi), so it appears my decision to buy BTC was correct. You knew about BTC around the same time, so your decision has been horrible.

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P.S. Right now 1BTC = 35.087 Troy Ounces of Gold.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 11 Jul 2025, 14:56:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')Geez unlucky you are very bad at this.


<snicker snicker yuck yuck>

Oh you've GOT to be kidding Careinke! Lucky is an australian GENIUS! Schooled in all the things important, which snakes are dangerous and which you can eat, the best way to saddle his kangaroo, driving a pig of a motorcycle because he never learned to dance, sheer Aussie genius!

I mean, his entire country is nothing but exceptionalism! Look at their Olympians! And remember, these are OLYMPIANS! Can you imagine what the uneducated backwoods halfwits look like in comparison?

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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby careinke » Fri 11 Jul 2025, 16:39:52

US Markets has closed for today Friday 11 July:

1 BTC = 35.186 Troy Ounces of gold. Another record for BTC Yawn...

This means BTC gained US $3,564 FIAT dollars over gold in one day, and US $8,010 FIAT dollars over gold this week. :-D

Lucky, it appears the only good choice you took was not to take my bet.

HFSP

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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 11 Jul 2025, 17:39:28

Inke inke inke, your pet tokens are irrelevant in the eyes of the world, it's only you and the rest of the gullible American public, along with the handful of whales that are engaged in that scheme. Look at how Trump made it part of his election circus and then basically ignored it. How many people voted for trump believing the US government was going to become "Da Big Hodler"? Do the part-coiners talk about that now? Analyze it? Not on your life, they (you) can't deal with any bad news, it's just head in the sand and hodl on.

BC has nothing to do with Gold, to compare them is the height of stupidity. It's a get rich quick ponzi scheme, you'll figure that out one day 8)
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 11 Jul 2025, 18:07:47

Putin nationalizes 3rd largest Russian Gold producer after arresting it's oligarch and imprisoning him.

Image

Mali Seizes $117M in Gold From Barrick Mine Amid Dispute
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')alian military helicopters landed unannounced at Barrick Gold’s Loulo-Gounkoto complex Thursday, seizing over one metric ton of bullion worth more than $117 million. The move escalates a months-long standoff between the Canadian miner and Mali’s military government.
https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/p/news- ... -gold-from

The whole World is rushing to secure Gold before the collapse of the $US system. It was the same before the collapse of the British Sterling system. That's why the US nationalized Gold, stole it back off it's rightful owners, the citizens of the United States of America. That was a big foundation of the freedom they had fought so long to secure but the government needed it to ensure trade because soon it would be the only thing trusted..
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')rticle I, Section 10, of the Constitution
No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts

That was your strength, but you surrendered it to a corrupt government and a private banking cartel. If you had kept the Gold in private hands the other nations' would have come to you regardless because of your great industry and resource wealth.

But that's all ancient history. The Gold is gone and so is all your resource wealth, the industry a shadow of it's former self. There is so much more to this business of Gold and Empire, international trade and personal wealth, but alas the average person in the West today is oblivious to all of it. Such was the power of the Media to denigrate Gold and push paper assets, to your financial destruction. Debt is the killer, and you are mired in it, from top to bottom. But the TV and Greenspan told you Debt is good so you have no idea what I'm talking about. Just go get another CC, take a vacation and pretend that sound you hear is not a freight train coming up behind you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8vM59ULCiII

PS. If you do own any gold, make sure it's in your own hands, in your own home etc. No ETF or other paper Gold. No secure Gold storage elsewhere, all that's someone else's Gold so get it out fast.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby careinke » Fri 11 Jul 2025, 20:00:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'I')nke inke inke, your pet tokens are irrelevant in the eyes of the world, it's only you and the rest of the gullible American public, along with the handful of whales that are engaged in that scheme. Look at how Trump made it part of his election circus and then basically ignored it. How many people voted for trump believing the US government was going to become "Da Big Hodler"? Do the part-coiners talk about that now? Analyze it? Not on your life, they (you) can't deal with any bad news, it's just head in the sand and hodl on.

BC has nothing to do with Gold, to compare them is the height of stupidity. It's a get rich quick ponzi scheme, you'll figure that out one day 8)


Darn, I was hoping you could actually do the arithmetic, so I would see Adam back off a bit. Obviously I was wrong. Instead, you try and divert the conversations with even more nonsense.
Lets start from the top.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')nke inke inke, your pet tokens are irrelevant in the eyes of the world, it's only you and the rest of the gullible American public, along with the handful of whales that are engaged in that scheme. Look at how Trump made it part of his election circus and then basically ignored it. How many people voted for trump believing the US government was going to become "Da Big Hodler"? Do the part-coiners talk about that now? Analyze it? Not on your life, they (you) can't deal with any bad news, it's just head in the sand and hodl on.


World wide there are approximately 343 million crypto owners. Included in that number 203 million people own BTC. In the United States only 20.5 million own BTC (6.2% of the population), making it third place in number of owners per country. #1 owner is India with 85.5 million owners, #2 is China with 27.8 million owners. So that alone destroys your first paragraph.
Here is the link for my data:https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/bitcoin-ownership-by-country Make sure you click the BTC only tab so you don't get confused. :)

Next paragraph $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')C has nothing to do with Gold, to compare them is the height of stupidity. It's a get rich quick ponzi scheme, you'll figure that out one day 8)


BTC and Gold are both money which is why we can compare them. you seem to be too ignorant to figure that out after 11 years.

As for BTC being a Ponzi Scheme, you don't seem to understand that either Both what a ponzi scheme is and why BTC is not.

A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment setup where returns to early investors are paid using money from newer investors — not from actual profits or economic activity. It collapses when new money stops flowing.

Here are some reasons why BTC is not a Ponzi scheme:

1. No promised returns: Bitcoin doesn’t guarantee profits or payouts. Its value is market-driven.
2. No central operator: There’s no mastermind orchestrating payouts. Bitcoin is decentralized, meaning no single person or entity controls it.
3. No recruitment requirement: You don’t need to recruit others to benefit. Bitcoin functions independently of how many people join or leave.
4. Transparent technology: Every transaction is recorded on a public blockchain. There’s no hidden flow of funds or secret ledger.

There have been some crypto Ponzi schemes, Bitconnect and OneCoin are the first to come to mind. I learned that lesson very early on.

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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 12 Jul 2025, 18:05:24

With your life savings it's always a good idea to keep an open mind and reevaluate from time to time.

The Big Beautiful Bullion
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')arry Browne, an economist with a knack for common sense, cooked up the Permanent Portfolio—a no-nonsense, all-weather mix of four uncorrelated assets: stocks, bonds, gold, and cash, each at 25%. Simple, balanced, and built to survive just about any economic circus...
...Now enter the old-school 60/40 portfolio—60% stocks, 40% bonds—the beloved brainchild of post-WWII finance and the go-to playbook for wealth managers. It rode high through decades of falling interest rates and rising markets, delivering growth with a side of stability. For years, it was the financial equivalent of a Volvo: safe, steady, and mildly exciting.

But today? That same portfolio looks like it’s stuck in the wrong era—kind of like showing up to a tech startup in a pinstripe suit. With inflation throwing punches, rates climbing, and geopolitics on edge, the once-golden 60/40 is now getting side-eyed as investors ask: Is this thing still built for the road ahead?

Full article:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-07- ... ul-bullion
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 12 Jul 2025, 23:01:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'W')ith your life savings it's always a good idea to keep an open mind and reevaluate from time to time.


Absolutely. So how much of your holdings are in stocks and bonds, perhaps market tracking funds and whatnot? Maybe even BTC?
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 13 Jul 2025, 05:01:43

Is inke still doing those daily BC/Gold comparison posts? I like that, it reminds me of the banal dogecoin posts that pop up weekly of the 3 cartoon men carrying a log over a hole, "as long as we all hodl, no one can fall." It reassures me as it reflects the depth of thinking that goes behind all such posts. Children wishing at a well.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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