[theluckycountry]

Hey adam, you know those crappy little hills you're so proud of. This is Santiago in Chile, a South American bannana republic, it has REAL mountains. When I look at those photos of yours I think of Clint Eastwood's High Plains Drifter




Some of the better homes. The Spanish influence, far better than anything you have in that pine frame sheet rock town of boulder.







You've been living in a dream world Neo.

[theluckycountry]

Boulder's poxy little hills

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'H')ey adam, you know those crappy little hills you're so proud of.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '3')0 June 2023 — Our analysis confirms these results: Permian per-well productivity fell 8% last year. The drivers of the lost productivity will only get worse.

[theluckycountry]

A year and a half ago!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')anuary 4, 2024-- Permian basin and Eagle Ford oil recoveries have both fallen by 30% and Bakken has declined by almost 20%. Those plays accounted for two-thirds of U.S. output in 2023. That means that U.S. production will decline at some time in the relatively near-future.

But wait—isn’t the U.S. producing a record amount of oil? Yes, U.S. output increased by more than 1 million barrels per day in 2023 to 13.2 mmb/d and about 80% of that increase was from tight oil plays. How can well performance be decreasing while production is increasing?

The answer is that shale wells are producing at higher initial rates but are declining faster than in previous years. Their total recoveries are lower than just a few years ago.

[theluckycountry]

This is a closeup of one of the motorcycle rides up here in the Scenic Rim adam, the Cunningham highway through the gap.

https://www.scenicrim.qld.gov.au/scenic ... ATURED.jpg

It's not a aerial image either, as the following pic shows





Hundreds of km of mountains crisscrossed with smooth blacktop, and the best part of all? It never snows or gets too cold that you can't ride. Why would a motorcyclist move to a region where it snows half the year? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EP31iYjeW4&t=689s

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '3')0 June 2023 — Our analysis confirms these results: Permian per-well productivity fell 8% last year. The drivers of the lost productivity will only get worse.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'T')his is a closeup of one of the motorcycle rides up here in the Scenic Rim adam, the Cunningham highway through the gap.

https://www.scenicrim.qld.gov.au/scenic ... ATURED.jpg

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')lobal oil production's Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) is declining as it becomes more expensive to extract oil from the Earth. This means that for each unit of energy invested in oil extraction, less energy is returned. This trend is particularly noticeable in unconventional oil sources like shale oil and oil sands, where EROI can be significantly lower than conventional oil

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Hirsch wrote a report that was wrong, and the people who knew it 20 years ago were banned for knowing why in real time. Good to see that not everyone fell for such nonsense, but because peak oil happened 7 years ago and we want so decent fear mongering to start back up...lets review!

[theluckycountry]

Peak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen...
This is another thread based on false assumptions, the Permian oil matters nothing, it never did as far as useful oil to society goes. Sure it pushed the numbers up, after all the fudging "liquid equivalents" and by ignoring the massive amounts of oil used to get the slop out of the ground. All it really achieved was billions for bankers and oil executives and a poisoned landscape for the population in those areas. Like Deep water, another example of uneconomic oil, but profits for BP and a poisoned Gulf of Mexico for all the inhabitants living along it.

The real peakOil story was and always will be centered around 2007~8 conventional peak, the beginning of the end for the world's industrialized nations. The beginning of the end for all the scattered developing nations. Untold Trillions have been borrowed from the future to try and cover up that 2008 event, but to no avail. The people of Planet earth are getting poorer and poorer, more and more go hungry and go homeless as they can no longer afford all the benefits oil brought in the 20th century.

The Big Mistake made was focusing on price. Price can stay where it is now, all the way to the last recovered barrel. What matters the price if you haven't a job to pay it, or if all your money is being spent on food and shelter, staying warm, staying fed. This is the reality in many nations now, even nations with abundant oil but no actual control over that oil. Oil is in one sense free, providing it flows at a EROEI high enough to satisfy all the infrastructure players involved in it's extraction. Once your pipes are laid and your wells pumping the overheads are low, that is for conventional oil of course. And even though this conventional oil has been in stark decline since 2008 the slow collapse of the world's economies has taken the pressure off that declining total.

there are 170 million people living in Bangladesh, that's half the population of the US yet most Americans couldn't point to it on a map! It's just one of the populous nations on Earth that has seen a drastic reduction in oil use. America has seen it too of course with declining miles driven, but being the paper-shuffler in chief they have been able to borrow much further into the future than a poor nation like Bangladesh. They have borrowed 37 trillion dollars into the future and that's a lot of red ink that will never be repaid too. But that 37 trillion represents oil and cars and food and minerals taken from the rest of the world, at their expense. So what happens when the borrowing game ends? America will hit a brick wall and will become Bangladesh, Mexico and Brazil. But unfortunately without the benefit of the slow decline, so the people can adjust to the new reality. It will be like the collapse of Venezuela, hunger games almost overnight.

And the price of oil will probably still be the same, but now instead of $US 80, it will be 570 Chinese Yuan. You don't want to believe that? Fine, go on youtube and watch some Peter Zeihan videos. But remember, he makes his money telling americans how great their nation is and how it will defeat China. If he said the opposite he would be as poor as a church mouse
Just believe, and click on his videos so his revenue goes up.

[theluckycountry]

These threads are just an example of children whistling in the dark as they move deeper and deeper into a graveyard. They never advocated real solutions, or fixes, for the loss of the abundant cheap oil we enjoyed in the 20th century. They were just doses of hopium to quell the nerves, to distract for a season the reality all around us. The real world where bridges age and don't get repaired, where towns are wiped off the map by hurricanes and don't get rebuilt. where more and more people set up tents in city centers and where the cost of living gets further and further away from the wages needed to pay for them.

1950, a man with an ordinary job has a wife and 4 kids at home, in a home he's paying off while they go to college, for free. That was the era of cheap oil. Then 1970, and it's been all downhill since. It's no wonder all the posters deserted this forum. They didn't go because they stopped believing in peakOil, or because they believed the Bullshit in all the posts promising a bright star trek future and went off to live it. They left because they got sick of reading the dribble posted every day on how electric cars will save the planet from oil dependence Sick of hearing about shale oil miracles and fusion plants that were just around the corner. Sick of hearing about the alternate energy *Renewables* future when they couldn't even afford to put a set of solar panels on their roof.

No, all the dreams were just that. Dreams. And they woke up out of the dream and left in disgust. As for real solutions, real grass roots personal solutions to their own personal battle to live well in the future, these were laughed at by the forum. It was wind turbines on every high hill or nothing at all. Well I thank God I never believed in any of these dreams, these corporate solutions to my personal existence beyond the oil age. If I had I'd probably be sitting with a mortgage now, paying off my OS holidays and new EV, my home extensions and all the rest. PeakOil, bring on the next leg down, the crash of the global markets and the loss of all hope. I'm prepared for that too. let the dreamers eat cake, if they can find it.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'I') predict by 2025 or 2030 the US will begin to have natural gas vehicles in the market. We've got at least 20-30 years of natural gas.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'P')eak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen...

[theluckycountry]

I remember well my awakening to PeakOil, it was after reading the material on dieff.org (now long gone) back in 2004. By the time the global recession, the GFC occurred, my assets were safely outside the paper markets, that crash was simply a popcorn event. I ran two V8's back then and around the time of the crash sold both for more economical vehicles. Money wasn't an issue, I was just collapsing before the rush so to speak. Keeping one step ahead of the consequences of peak oil.

As the years passed I acquired and stockpiled items with VLSL, very long shelf lives, like quality phillips razors with triple cut, triple heads, the stuff made now is garbage. Tools and hobby supplies, then quality motorcycles, again all the modern stuff is crap in comparison to the decade of 2010. Finally I moved up country to a lovely tourist town and bought in before Covid at less than half the price the house would now sell for. Keep ahead of the curve was always my mantra, fit solar when it was cheap and paid good tariffs. Well those are gone now but they paid off the system in the 4 years they lasted so I've no complaints. Compared to 2004, everything is very expensive now. From food, to electricity, to parts, to good tools. Only fuel is still reasonably priced compared to then, only doubling in 20 years, amazing! But of course it can't rise much more can it because in 2008 at the all time conventional peak the global economy began to collapse, people couldn't afford the long drives to work, businesses couldn't afford to ship product and mines were suffering due to exorbitant diesel costs. The GFC was a given as was the Lie about it's cause. A hedge fund and an insurance company failed, sure

I retired before 60 and it was easy because my overheads were quite low. I still receive payments from "the system" and that more than covers my monthly expenditures, I put the excess into new stuff, maintenance, and leave some to pile up in the bank. Zero debt was a big key to success, not that the repayments are onerous if you know what you're doing but debt is subtle, it leads you into buying stuff you don't need, like crappy new cars and overseas holidays, pointless extension on perfectly functional homes. The amount of people who re-make their houses just because they see others doing it is phenomenal, and never would have occurred without the magic of modern mortgage debt. Then before you know it you have hundreds of grand on the books that needs to be repaid, years and years worth of repayments. You tell yourself, that's ok, I have it all worked out, but the mathematics never includes a stock market collapse or the loss of a job so it's just hopium, not a resilient plan. You could lose your home! And many do...

I have made a few errors, not costly ones, but I bought too many sport bikes when I should have been more focused on Adventure bikes. The sort of bikes that can handle rougher roads with ease because that's the future, less oil, less blacktop and higher construction costs. I'll sort that out next year, perhaps even ditch one for one of those hi-end e-bikes, the ones you can register and tool around the roads on at speed. No rush though, no pressure, and no one with a brain sells a motorcycle in Winter, you wait for Spring. As long as the major points are covered you're fine. No mortgage or other debt, home in a safe rural area near food and water supplies, and a retirement nest egg protected from Government and Market theft. Nail those down and you can relax and enjoy your autumn years.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'I') remember well my awakening to PeakOil, it was after reading the material on dieff.org (now long gone) back in 2004.

[theluckycountry]

In 1970, total US household debt was approximately $516.4 billion
May 14, 2025 — American households carry a total of $18.203 trillion of debt
The population has increased by 50%, the debt by 3500%. Or another way of looking at it the debt in 1970 was 2.7% of current household debt. All that debt and they are still not as well off as back in the 70's.

That's what happens when your nation passes peak oil and doesn't rein in spending.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'A')s a parrot I just repeated a bunch of <yawn> parrot level repitiion of parrot level understanding...me being a parrot and not even being able to pick my favorite oils off a list.

[theluckycountry]

From The Journal of Petroleum Technology no less. Of course brainless wannabees on the internet with little understanding about the real world will try and refute these facts but you always get that.

Plummeting 'Energy Return on Investment' of Oil and the Impact on Global Energy Landscape
Our shifting energy landscape requires a new way to measure the amount of energy that can be extracted from any given source against the energy required to produce and distribute it.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Oil is the backbone of industrial civilization. A number of strategic advantages such as its liquid state and high energy density have driven its ever-escalating demand and the search for new supplies. It is against this backdrop that we have come to scrutinize the nonrenewable nature of oil and the risk that poses for a possible supply squeeze that cannot be reversed.

During the 1990s, experts predicted a global peak in conventional oil production around 2005, giving rise to the term "peak oil" in 2000. In response, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas was established in 2001 to raise awareness of oil scarcity. The validation of its claims, combined with the 2008 financial crisis, reignited discussions of declining cheap oil production. Post-financial crisis, interest in the peak oil debate gradually decreased due to an absence of political proposals, a focus on climate change regulation, and a clash with the mainstream belief in abundance and unlimited technological progress.

In the 2010s, the shale revolution that drove oil production from unconventional resources, particularly US tight oil, had significant economic and geopolitical implications globally. The unique environment, including abundant shale resources, supportive hydrocarbon policies, infrastructure networks, trained engineers, access to the largest market, and unbridled speculative debt system, facilitated a major boom in oil and gas output which further dampened the discussions on peak oil.

In the mid-2010s, the "peak demand" hypothesis emerged, which suggests that peak oil will be driven by technological advancements and policies aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Recently, the resource-limited peak theory has regained importance due to the recent concerns about the ability of the tight-oil industry to increase production and recover pre-crisis levels after the 2020 oil-consumption plunge and subsequent Saudi-Russia price war. As a result, the issue of net energy from oil liquids in the context of a transition to low-carbon energy sources requires more attention.

[theluckycountry]

The Permian's Dirty "Wastewater" Secret Is Bubbling Over
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Permian Basin produces over 5 million barrels of oil daily. With that, the Permian also produces a lot of wastewater, which has started to turn into a problem. Some drillers are even suing others for ruining their reserves.

Back in May, the Texas Railroad Commission sent out notices to companies applying for licenses for wastewater disposal wells in the basin, stating that there were ground pressure issues caused by wastewater disposal. The number of new ones was to be restricted.