I'm not a shill for the status quo, but the status quo IS (by definition) the way things are currently; and we've hit peak, and nothing interesting is really happening, at least with regard to energy use. We're burning coal, oil, and gas just like we have in the past. "The System" is extremely durable, and that isn't likely to change in our lifetimes. There'll be periodic runs of inflation, recession, and maybe even a depression or two, but food will make it to market; people will find ways to make the mile or two trip to the grocer. I see people making the walk from apartment to grocer already. Its really not far, I've walked it myself, and I used to bike it most of the time. But most still drive. And for the foreseeable future, this will be the case.
Peak Oil is science and math.
Collapse is a nightmare fairy tale. Nothing more.
PeakOil is You
Peak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020's
Re: Peak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020's
by AgentR11 » Fri 13 Jun 2025, 12:24:05
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
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Re: Peak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020's
by AdamB » Fri 13 Jun 2025, 14:34:01
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'I')
Peak Oil is science and math.
Peak Oil is science and math.
Close. When I was doing the peak oil speaking circuit a decade or more ago, I used Ternary plots as part of the presentations. There are three specialties (which can be the equivalent of sciences) involved in solving the peak oil puzzle.
These were the engineering of development (new tech, old tech, someone has to be the engineer to get it done), the petroleum geology basics (resource and reserve location and availability as a characteristic of hydrocarbon creation and migration) , and the economists, working on the cost of development of certain resources under different price scenarios.
I'm aware of only 2 organizations that combined all 3 to create a dynamic peak oil calculator. One is available as part of commercially available information packages, you can go out and buy it, and then create your estimate of peak oil based on conditions of the three specialties mentioned. The 2nd one is not publically available. I'm betting there are others though (there are plenty of one or two science types though, and then the pure morons who just slap bell shaped curves on data they don't understand and call it GOOD). This type of work just isn't very visible because those of us who were doing it back then didn't necessarily advertise. And the topic self destructed under US LTO and shale gas development.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '
')Collapse is a nightmare fairy tale. Nothing more.
Yeah, peak oil was the mechanism to race as fast as possible to doom and gloom. There is a fascination those who worship at the temple of Apocalypticism to just rinse and recycle, these folks have been around long enough to really be considered a religion of some sort. Although honestly, most religions just seem to have incorporated some of the precepts from these End Times folks.
Peak oil was just a convenient "scare the rubes into my religion!" thing. And back during the hayday? There were rubes a-plenty!!!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020's
by theluckycountry » Fri 13 Jun 2025, 16:37:08
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'I')'m not a shill for the status quo, but the status quo IS (by definition) the way things are currently; and we've hit peak, and nothing interesting is really happening, at least with regard to energy use. We're burning coal, oil, and gas just like we have in the past.
Well you and I are, but were well back from the beach so to speak and the tsunami hasn't reached us yet. There are many nation on the beach, of which I've posted on here before, third world ones like Myanmar and Sri Lanka And Bangladesh and Brazil etc etc, that have lost access to the oil they once have and are being plunged into poverty. Then you have all of Western Europe too where the tsunami is just now reaching. That's supply and demand, they lose out so we can continue as before.
But even in the US there are signs, the homeless explosion, the ever greater reliance on debt because people can't afford what they once could. It's all oil related because oil is the master resource that fueled all modern growth in the first place. We're just slowly going back to life as it was before oil is all. But it isn't always a steady decline, there can be big steps down. Many of the issues are framed in terms of finances, "they can't afford it because they have run out of foreign reserves" But where did all the reserves go? Paying for high priced oil and fertilizer that's where.
At $20 a barrel the world was a merry-go-round, now it's a roller-coaster and cars are flying off the track. Our turn will come, but like you say, perhaps not in our lifetime.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Peak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020's
by theluckycountry » Fri 13 Jun 2025, 16:51:08
Here is a good example of the Spin used to coverup the consequences of oil depletion. Sure there's plenty of Oil left, but it's getting expensive just in relative terms.
Bangladeshi farmers grow “safe” vegetables
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hese farmers in Bogura District, northwestern Bangladesh, have chosen to learn to farm with natural pest control instead of synthetic pesticides. They have seen the negative effects of long-term use, abuse and overuse of pesticides on the health of farmers, consumers and the environment.
https://christianleadermag.com/banglade ... egetables/Bangladeshi farmers grow “safe” vegetables
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hese farmers in Bogura District, northwestern Bangladesh, have chosen to learn to farm with natural pest control instead of synthetic pesticides. They have seen the negative effects of long-term use, abuse and overuse of pesticides on the health of farmers, consumers and the environment.
Sure it's healthier, but pesticides are very expensive now (made from oil) How much of their crops are they losing to pests now? Who knows, but the simple fact is they can't afford the oil products so it's back to the old ways.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')In April 2021, Sri Lanka made headlines: the country banned agrochemicals overnight, aiming to become the world's first fully organic farming nation.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')This bold decision was officially driven by concerns to address, for example, the epidemic of the chronic kidney disease (CKDu) assumed to be associated with agrochemicals. (Spin) It was also a strategic decision to alleviate pressure on dwindling foreign reserves needed for fertilizer imports during a crippling economic crisis. (The truth of the matter) But just seven months later, the government was forced to reverse course amid devastating consequences. Rice harvests dropped by 32%, tea production fell by 18%, and the resulting agricultural collapse triggered widespread food insecurity and economic losses, including an estimated $425 million in lost tea exports alone.
Sri Lanka’s short-lived agricultural revolution raises a critical question: can a country realistically undergo a complete transformation toward organic agriculture on a national scale?
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
