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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Peak Oil Never Went Away

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil Never Went Away

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 14 Apr 2025, 22:19:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')You never admit your failures, which is just about every post you make.

You are projecting. But this is an interesting point...not how sensitive you are to being wrong, which is not uncommon in uneducated people, but how RIGHT you are!

My most YUGELY professional failure was devastating! And led to the greatest professional accomplishment of my scientific career when I decided to figure out WHY I was wrong. I SPECIALIZE in being wrong....until I am not....and then CSIRO asks me to teach them what I learned.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil Never Went Away

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 15 Apr 2025, 02:23:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ast month, China imported a total of 38.73 million metric tons of coal, compared to 41.38 million tons in imports in the same month of 2024, per data from the General Administration of Customs cited by Reuters on Monday.

Globally, China is the leader in renewable energy capacity installations, but it is also a leader in coal-fired power and continues to be the key driver of record-high global coal demand. Thermal power generation, which is overwhelmingly dominated by coal, rose by 1.5% in 2024 from a year earlier, to a record high of 6.34 trillion kilowatt-hours (kWh), data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed.

The persistent growth in Chinese coal demand, including for power generation, goes to show that coal remains the baseload of China’s power system to back up the surge in renewables and will stay such for years to come as power demand jumps with the increasing electrification of homes and transport.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... Slump.html

So China is using some renewables, but coal is still the source of choice. Why? It's cheap of course, and reliable. It doesn't rely on the wind or the sun. Do we remember all those chinese ghost cities? They are still out there in the desert, still abandoned and crumbling due to shoddy workmanship. China's build-out of renewables means nothing in the light of that. They have proven they don't mind wasting billions on white elephants.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Peak Oil Never Went Away

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 15 Apr 2025, 02:39:28

'This Is Not About Tariffs': Ray Dalio Fears "Something Worse Than A Recession"
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, said in an interview with NBC’s Meet the Press that the foundation of the American economy - the "monetary order" — is under threat. "We have a breaking down of the monetary order. We are going to change the monetary order because we cannot spend the amounts of money. So we have that problem.

We are having profound changes in our domestic order... And we're having profound changes in the world order. Such times are very much like the 1930s."


You think so Ray? People here on peakoil.com have been saying that for years. Of course there is a depression coming, there is always a depression after the stock market goes totally insane and once debt levels become unsustainable. Last time it cost the peoples of the advanced nations there Gold coinage as it was taken by governments so that they could still balance trade while the world burned. This time it will be bank accounts and Adam's pension that will be confiscated. Oh I wouldn't have 2 bob in the pension system or the paper markets at this juncture in history.

It's just too bad all the cheap oil is gone. It will be back to horses, ox and plow on many small farms. If they can find the animals? Chicken coops will be no problem, just wind down the windows on the cars and fit mesh. The chickens can roost on the seat backs and parcel shelf, the dominant one on the steering wheel. Find that hard to believe? People never imagined this either

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We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Peak Oil Never Went Away

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 15 Apr 2025, 23:02:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')It's just too bad all the cheap oil is gone.

How would you know? You don't know the difference between real and nominal to be even able to get someone on line to tell you what cheap is.

Found "conventional" oil off a list of global benchmarks yet? Yeah...I didn't think so. A child could pick things from a list if they knew what those things were....what's that make you? Australian.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil Never Went Away

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 16 Apr 2025, 19:31:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he cost of living in Boulder, Colorado is significantly higher than the national average, with some estimates suggesting it's 41.3% higher. Housing costs are a major contributor to this, with median rents ranging from $1,530 for a one-bedroom to $1,909 for a two-bedroom

Too bad you aren't making the money you once did hey adam. Of course as PeakOil plays out, as we head down the other side of the bell curve, it's only going to get worse. While you have been spruking the Lies of the IEA and all the other mouthpieces saying that there was no definitive Peakoil, the smart people have moved out of the cities, when rural property was still cheap. You missed the window I'm afraid, not that your wife would have allowed you to, She who must be obeyed and all that. Women like to be near shops :P

There are lots of pitfalls in this life adam and you seem to have fallen into all of them :cry:

Rural Areas Saw Disproportionate Home Price Growth During the Pandemic
https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/rural ... g-pandemic

I won't skite about what I paid, pre-pandemic, but the home value today is astronomical! Everyone with half a brain is wanting to move out from the cities, away from the crime, the immigrants, the government over-watch.

The trend is your friend as they say and anyone who took onboard the message of PeakOil could have seen this coming a mile away. The rest, the deniers, well you have to just suffer it out now. Don't worry Adam, there is plenty of oil to enrich the nation, always another peak hey :roll:

Why More Homebuyers Are Choosing Rural Properties
https://www.ucchattahoocheevalley.com/a ... properties

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We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Peak Oil Never Went Away

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 18 Apr 2025, 08:42:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he cost of living in Boulder, Colorado is significantly higher than the national average, with some estimates suggesting it's 41.3% higher. Housing costs are a major contributor to this, with median rents ranging from $1,530 for a one-bedroom to $1,909 for a two-bedroom

Too bad you aren't making the money you once did hey adam.


Don't know what you are talking about. I make far more than I once did. And it has always been pricy here in Colorado, Denver when I moved here in the last century was the most expensive non-coastal city in the US. Probably still is

I recommend having a brain and knowing how to use it, people will pay you well. I would suggest you give it a try, but unless you can find a donor, you are out of luck.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')Of course as PeakOil plays out, as we head down the other side of the bell curve, it's only going to get worse.


7 years after peak oil now....and if blowhards still populate the internet and aren't fighting for scraps from their Chinese mining masters, it can't be that bad where you are. Certainly there is nothing different going on in suburbia in Colorado.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')While you have been spruking the Lies of the IEA and all the other mouthpieces saying that there was no definitive Peakoil..


Or the uneducated liars pretending that is what they said....in the same vein as folks saying peak oil was 2015. 2010.2008.2005.2003.1998.1990. 1979.1950. 1943. 1919.

All those peak oil liars, and now we've got lucky who doesn't even know it happened years ago, and it is so BAD that it hasn't slowed his liquid fuel burning habits down by a second.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil Never Went Away

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 20 Apr 2025, 10:33:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Give me a price for "conventional" oil and we can talk.

I have, for russian conventional. Go re-read my posts.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Peak oil happened 7 years ago. No denying that one, #6 of this century claimed or occurred.

Facts be facts. Click here. Select "World". Go to "Crude Oil and Lease Condensate" and scroll back and forth. So easy a middle schooler could figure it out.

But a so called educated man can't discern the difference between Oil (petroleum), and "Petroleum and other liquids". You don't run tractors and cars on "other liquids" adam, you make billions of plastic bags with them.

You let other people do your thinking for you and they have filled your head with shit. The iea is a politically captured organization that will manipulate the statistics and tell the world whatever it needs to keep the wheels of corporate profit turning. Do you believe the unemployment figures? Did you believe it when you were told debt doesn't matter? Did you believe Biden when he told you he was going to transform America with the Inflation reduction act? I know you did, you and that npc kub were raving about the Federal EV charger build out (that never happened) :lol:

There is no point in talking to you adam, your just a bag of shit, full of all the lies the world spins. You never admit your failures, which is just about every post you make. Why would I want to talk to you? I talk "at you" from time to time, that's it. Now go dig up some more kangaroo pictures, I won't be uncovering any of your posts again for a while.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Inflation Reduction Act, signed by President Biden in 2022, aims to reduce the federal budget deficit, lower prescription drug prices, and invest in clean energy. It represents the largest investment in climate change initiatives in U.S. history, with significant funding for renewable energy and healthcare reforms.


And half the allocated money was no doubt siphoned off to help pay the one Trillion interest debt the US government incurs every year now. One day they won't be able to make those interest payments, then you'll see some serious shit come down.

Time's running out!

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Re: Peak Oil Never Went Away

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 21 Apr 2025, 14:27:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')Time's running out!
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100%


Armie! Still denying evolution because DOZ WHALES...DAY B BIGS!!!

Hopefully the horrors of peak oil 7 years ago now have been treating you well? Or alternatively your father in laws largesse continues to extend through his daughter to you? Any traveling, cruises, anything interesting in the horrors of the present that peak oil has wrought? Hopefully you still have fuel for your four wheelers and luxury cages and whatnot.

The rest of the US is rolling in the stuff, but you were pretty fierce in defense of that peak oil...although I think you were suckered in 2005...it must be AMMAAAZZZAAAAAZZZAAAAZZZING!!! that 2 decades later fuel is available for gas powered toys. Enjoy!

Maybe you can convince the wife to take a vacation down under and visit with Lucky? Take a metal detector, Lucky is still looking for some of his PM stash he buried in the yard and hasn't been able to find.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil Never Went Away

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 01 Jun 2025, 17:45:58

So This is How the Oil Age Ends

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he age of oil ends when new oil becomes too expensive for buyers to buy, and at the same time too costly for producers to extract — not when a suitable replacement is found and deployed at scale. Recent data from S&P Global shows that oil&gas capital investment costs have surged to new heights globally, even as the price of oil has plunged to depths not seen in many years with no demand rise in sight. What follows will be anything but a “sustainable, diversified, and more resilient global energy system” — rather a dislocation lasting decades into the future. Curtain up! The show begins.


It was always predicted this way, by the geologists and the wise economists, not the plethora of doomsayer websites. We've already been through the first stage, the knee-jerk mass money printing to try and save "the system" The BS Alternatives to cover up the reality of the peaking. I sometimes wonder where we'd be today if the world's governments and corporations had have told the truth and steered the nations toward frugality and conservation. But it was never going to happen, not with the entrenched interests. They would never give up their revenue streams.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ver the past two decades the concept of peak oil was dismissed as a fringe, disproved idea. The prodigious amounts of shale oil extracted in America, together with the mountains of tar sands mined in Canada made peak oil supply look like a joke. With the rise of radical climate activism in the 2010's the discussion about oil has thus shifted from its limited availability towards its environmental impact: pollution and climate change. For anyone closely following the topic, however, it was clear that Net Zero and “clean” energy initiatives were nothing but magical thinking. Not only because neither wind, nor solar (or hydro and nuclear for that matter) could possibly be made and built at scale without oil, but because electricity from these technologies are simply no replacement for the black gold. There are thousand good technical reasons why electricity’s share of world energy consumption is between 10 and 15% for decades now… Nevertheless, the public was successfully convinced that one day we will no longer need oil thanks to a rapid deployment of “renewables” and electric vehicles. The concept of peak oil has hence been re-framed once again: this time suggesting “peak demand”. The wee little problem is, that peak oil is not (and never was) about supply nor demand alone.

World peak oil happens when the highest record in global crude oil output is set. It doesn’t mean that we have run out of oil, or that production will fall precipitously the year after. In fact, it’s quite possible that global oil output remains flat for many years to come after such a peak in production is reached, then begin to decline somewhat later on. Peak oil output in and of itself doesn’t tell anything about what happens next, how soon the decline in oil extraction will arrive, how steep the fall in output will be, or when will we fill up our car’s tank the last time in our lives. In fact, world peak oil output has already happened in November 2018, clocking in at 85.5 million barrels pumped daily. (At least when we look at the traditional definition of petroleum, which is crude oil plus condensate. If you happen to believe that natural gas liquids, LNG, refinery gains bio-fuels etc. are also oil and can be added to crude oil figures, then yes we have reached new heights just recently at 103.75 million barrels per day. But more on that later.) In terms of world crude production we only managed to get back to 2015–2016 levels (or around 82 million barrels a day) after the pandemic induced slump, and there is still no substantial growth to be seen on the horizon.

The author uses a latter date for PeakOil than the original geologists peak of 2008 but perhaps he doesn't equate the vast amounts of conventional oil used to extract the unconventional. When oil came in at 50:1 a barrel this could be dismissed, but when you are using two units of oil equivalent to get four out of the ground you really should factor it in. Because while on paper you have have a greater oil total, you have actually have less available to run society than the stated total suggests. This is well explained in this article from the "Journal of Petroleum Technology" Plummeting 'Energy Return on Investment' of Oil https://jpt.spe.org/plummeting-energy-r ... -landscape

Back to the article.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ehind these production figures lies the stern reality of geology and physics. Peak oil occurs when easily accessible reserves are depleted, and it becomes increasingly difficult and expensive to extract the remaining pockets of oil. This reality is not something we can out-innovate. Sure, we can come up with better and better technologies to access hitherto uneconomic batches of petroleum, improve the efficiency of extraction or find ways to suck out the last drops of existing reserves. But technology also comes with increased complexity: in order to access hitherto inaccessible reserves, wells have to be drilled deeper, the source rock needs to be hydraulically fractured, and more steel pipe, sand, cement and other materials have to be used per well than at any time earlier. And as large pockets of oil and sweet spots (where oil flows the fastest) deplete, we have to go after ever smaller and ever less productive locations — effectively forcing us to multiply our efforts just to remain on the same production level.

Were it not for the increased energy demand of technology, innovation could go on for quite some time. However, as wells go deeper and require more raw materials (with their respective mining, smelting, manufacturing and transportation needs) more and more energy will have to be spent with every round of innovation. And if we consider that each new generation of wells produce less oil compared to the previous generation we realize that we face a predicament with an outcome, not a problem with a solution. This is why half a century ago less than 5% of the energy of a barrel of oil had to be reinvested into exploration and drilling, and why we now have to spend over 15% of the hard earned energy from crude on getting the next barrel. This ever growing energy demand per barrel retrieved has no upper limit and can be expected to increase to as high as 50% by the middle of this century. At least in theory. And this is where everyday practicalities, and economic realities come into the picture.
The article continues here
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/ ... l-age-ends
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Peak Oil Never Went Away

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Jun 2025, 19:04:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '[')b]So This is How the Oil Age Ends

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he age of oil ends when new oil becomes too expensive for buyers to buy, and at the same time too costly for producers to extract — not when a suitable replacement is found and deployed at scale. Recent data from S&P Global shows that oil&gas capital investment costs have surged to new heights globally, even as the price of oil has plunged to depths not seen in many years with no demand rise in sight. What follows will be anything but a “sustainable, diversified, and more resilient global energy system” — rather a dislocation lasting decades into the future. Curtain up! The show begins.


It was always predicted this way, by the geologists and the wise economists.....


You mean geologists like Hubbert predicting US peak oil in 1936...by 1950? Or Colin Campbell, predicting global peak oil in 1990? Those geologists? As far as economist, you mean like Fatih Birol of the IEA, who proclaimed officially that global peak happened in 2006. He did this in 2010, just to be sure.

Parrots can't think their way out of a wet paper bag...so they say stuff....and can't think around data and stuff.

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$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')The article continues here
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/ ... l-age-ends


Double parrot. Learn to pick your favorite oils off a list. Like a 6 year old orders from a menu. Oops....that's right...parrots can't think. They only parrot.

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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil Never Went Away

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 01 Jun 2025, 19:31:16

Let me guess, a picture of a kangaroo right?
It's too bad all the things you believed in over the past 20 years turned out to be lies hey adam, you could have posted some actual stories about booming EV sales or massive solar and wind systems going on stream :lol:

Tell us again about those EV chargers Biden is having installed all over the nation, I loved that story, I've always loved SciFi.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Peak Oil Never Went Away

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 01 Jun 2025, 19:39:44

Here. I'll do it for you because I know your challenged now kub has run away.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2')022
Historic Step: All Fifty States Plus D.C. and Puerto Rico Greenlit to Move EV Charging Networks Forward, Covering 75,000 Miles of Highway. WASHINGTON –
The Biden-Harris Administration today announced it has approved Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Deployment Plans for all 50 States, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico ahead of schedule under the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) Formula Program, established and funded by President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.

“America led the original automotive revolution in the last century, and today, thanks to the historic resources in the President’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, we’re poised to lead in the 21st century with electric vehicles,” said U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.


WOW! I can hardly wait.....

2024-
Biden's billion-dollar plan to build 500,000 EV chargers has yet to yield a single charger
Overall, the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) earmarked $7.5 billion for electric vehicle chargers — However, just $101.5 million has been distributed for seven state NEVI awards and just two projects, located in Columbus, Ohio, and Pittston, Pennsylvania, have begun construction,

Image

Gotta love those daggy 1970's sunglasses. They say when people get oldtimers they tend to revert to happier days.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Peak Oil Never Went Away

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Jun 2025, 19:57:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'L')et me guess, a picture of a kangaroo right?

You aren't even a good guesser.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')It's too bad all the things you believed in over the past 20 years turned out to be lies hey adam, you could have posted some actual stories about booming EV sales or massive solar and wind systems going on stream :lol:

I've already posted current global sales estimates that are continuing higher. But parrots don't learn from information.

What things have I believed in over the last 20 years? I was right here in 2005 mentioning that folks were being pretty silly about this peak oil thing. You are so dumb you pretend the alternative reality hoped for by the likes of you happened. It did, but in 2018. <yawn>

Anything other stupid crap I can educate you on?
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Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil Never Went Away

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Jun 2025, 20:01:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')2024-
Biden's billion-dollar plan to build 500,000 EV chargers has yet to yield a single charger
Overall, the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) earmarked $7.5 billion for electric vehicle chargers — However, just $101.5 million has been distributed for seven state NEVI awards and just two projects, located in Columbus, Ohio, and Pittston, Pennsylvania, have begun construction,


What a bummer. Good thing mine was installed in the garage in 2024. And I didn't even need any of that IIJA money. The things are subsidied by local utilities, including preferential electricity rates if you choose to charge at night.

Keep pouring expensive fuels into your ICE machines. There is no law against people wasting money, so enjoy.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil Never Went Away

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 11 Jun 2025, 09:07:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')
Image

Gotta love those daggy 1970's sunglasses. They say when people get oldtimers they tend to revert to happier days.


But you gotta admit, he looks ok in the photo shoot. An old man for sure but a silver fox, lean, a good smile, a good Instagram sort of pic. And that is 50% of a good President in the mind of the average person. What they look like, how they hold themselves and how they speak. It's a dog and pony act, a popularity contest and that half of the campaign has Zero to do with actual policies. Policies are political promises, something the survey teams come up with based on the hopes of the public. They are used to to woo the voter and then the President spends the next year wriggling out of them because they invariable transfer money to the people and not the corporations, which is the ultimate goal of government.

It's like a magic act where the magician is doing something over here but behind his back he's doing the actual trick. The political system is a total scam, a total fraud but the masses engage in it because they don't know what else to do? I mean you have to have politicians don't you? The nation couldn't function without them. And this of course is true, but the fact is they would still be there and doing their magic tricks if only a handful of voters turned up. And don't for one second think your vote means shit, because it doesn't. It doesn't actually matter who is in power because the nation's fortune's rise or fall regardless. That has to do with access to energy basically and is why the US turned South after the 1970 peak in oil production there.

Many millions are completely detached from politics, they neither vote nor watch the circus nor even have an opinion, and trust me it's a very peaceful way to live your life. Let the other millions engage in the fruitless struggle to see "their party" get into power, you get on about your own life, securing your own prosperity and not the faux prosperity the politicians promise you on the TV.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Peak Oil Never Went Away

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 11 Jun 2025, 10:26:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')
Image

Gotta love those daggy 1970's sunglasses. They say when people get oldtimers they tend to revert to happier days.



You have a crush on Joe do you? Well...isn't that sweet. He still has a brain that allows him to go to the bathroom on his own, so he's out of your league. Stick with what you can achieve Lucky. Think small, local, and stick with your mental equivalents.

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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil Never Went Away

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 18 Jun 2025, 02:13:07

The Economist says: ‘The Stone Age didn’t end because we ran out of stones.’ It ended because we invented bronze tools, which were more productive.”

The Engineer says: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')nly half of his statement is true. "The stone age didn't end." That part of it is true. We still make almost EVERYTHING out of stone. Your car, the wires in your computer, your computer chips, the bullets and the guns, the streets and the skyscrapers and the EV batteries are all made out of STONE. We just put a trillion times more energy into each stone to strip off the parts that we don't want to use. Take the right rocks to build a Flintstones car, then run it through a blast furnace and other processes and you can have a Prius come out the other end. We are still in the stone age. We just dumped the dinosaur age on top of it. The stone age will never end. The dinosaur age will end in the next 20 years.


And it's quite true, but even without basic stones as they are we wouldn't have skyscrapers or bridges -stone aggregate in concrete. Or our modern roads -stone quarried and crushed into roadbase.

It's this shallow stupid thinking "The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones" that has convinced people that we can seamlessly transition from one form of energy, or building material, to another, whenever we get into trouble with the one we're using now. From manpower to coal fired steam power, Great! From steam power to vastly more efficient oil power, Even Better! But from fossil fuels to rebuildables? No, that's a step backwards in efficiency.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')“The former Saudi oil minister, Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani, once warned his OPEC colleagues something Putin should remember: ‘The Stone Age didn’t end because we ran out of stones.’ It ended because we invented bronze tools, which were more productive.”
Whether it takes 20 years or 40 years, Russia’s long term future is not in doubt: it has to diversify or continue down the path of a dying state, admittedly with lots of weapons. To change its course will be difficult if not impossible because one does not build a 21st century economy by restricting people’s freedoms.

This type mental sickness is mainstream now, that somehow burning oil and coal to make expensive alternate energy machines is more efficient than just burning the fuels in power stations and vehicles. Everything we have (which is now crumbling around our ears) was built with oil over the last 100 years, and this Saudi thinks Russia will fail because it's using that blueprint? Idiot (or political statement...) Alternate energy systems, sold as energy creators of all the BS, are nothing but an example of the perpetual motion machine, whereby a little bit of energy gets you lots for free. But you can't cheat Entropy and that's what these machines are purported to do.

If you like they are an example of a motor vehicle that can travel all day, as if by magic, but then the tank of fuel must be refilled in equal measure to the energy burnt. So the energy produced by a solar panel that generates electricity for 25 years must be balanced by the energy (not money cost) used to extract and process all the minerals gone into building it and all the manufacturing gone into it and all the wages paid building it and all the transport costs at every step of this process. That energy cost is never accounted for but it's there, subsidized by cheap coal and oil. Take that subsidy away, 20,000 man hours of labor, @ 100W, per barrel of oil, and then try and build them.

1/ The Stone Age never ended
2/ The oil age will end, and with it 100 years and more of progress will be reversed. If not for the simple reason that "stones", which are so integral to our modern way of life, are almost always mined and processed and shipped around by diesel oil and coal. Just like everything else in our modern world; food, building materials, cars themselves, all our household appliances, shipped across the planet and across our nations using bunker oil and diesel oil. Think about that next time you praise the shift to alternate energy systems. But don't think too deeply, that will cause you to question the very foundations of our modern societies. Like where the beans from that latte you just bought came from and how they got into your paper cup.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/stone-ag ... kandimalla
https://www.economicsandethics.org/2014 ... ones-.html
https://www.vhemt.org/humanenergy.htm
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Peak Oil Never Went Away

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 18 Jun 2025, 20:15:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'T')he Economist says: ‘The Stone Age didn’t end because we ran out of stones.’ It ended because we invented bronze tools, which were more productive.”
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/stone-ag ... kandimalla

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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil Never Went Away

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 18 Jun 2025, 21:06:03

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We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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