[clv101]

FEASTA, The Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability have published work on four possible scenarios for Ireland in light of Peak Oil, asking:

Will oil prices continue to rise or is this just a spike?
Are we running out of oil?
When will the supply of oil peak?
What will happen then?
How can we plan when the future is so uncertain?

It looks great, they consider four scenarios in detail:

Oil Peaks by 2030
Reactive Response Business as Usual
Ireland continues to use current assumptions until close to peak, leaving key decisions to the market.

Proactive Response Enlightened Transition
Ireland actively prepares for transition by encouraging efficiency and uses market mechanisms to speed shift to renewable energy.

Oil Peaks by 2007
Reactive Response Localisation
Market determines allocation of remaining oil and gas. World economy plunged into depression by high prices.

Proactive Response Fair Shares
Energy rationed to share it fairly. World economy does well but consumption in rich countries falls.

http://www.energyscenariosireland.com/

[gt1370a]

I would argue that "Fair Shares" could just as easily mean allocating oil on a GDP basis, whereas FEASTA for some reason thinks it should be a per capita basis.

[agmart]

"Fairs shares"

Yea, that'll happen

[Novus]

None of those senerios are very likely because they completely ignore the doomier aspects of peak oil. No mention of a SHTF event. No mention of $300 oil. Nothing about total economic collapse. Nothing about famines or die off.

[evilmonkeyspanker]

but they will have potato fuel right ?