[khebab]

The peak position depends mainly on the estimation of the URR and not so much on the choice of the curve. USGS says 3 trillions, other say 2 triliions. It's a big discrepancy.

What I find curious from Cambpell et al. is that they dot not give any interval confidence on the estimated peak position or any other sensitivity anlaysis. In my opinion, this positiion must be very sensitive on the value of the URR. For instance, if I suppose URR=2.5 trillion +/- 0.5 trillion it should translate in a time interval where we can have 95% confidence that the peak will occur. And it can make a big difference for a decision maker, for instance if I could predict peak oil date= 2006 +/- 2 years or 2006 +/- 20 years! In the second case, it is equivalent to say that I don't really know and the uncertainty about the true value of the URR is too high to give a reliable PO date.

[DefiledEngine]

As far as I know, their model is based on ONE assumption of growth and remaining reserves, and thus it doesn't have an interval?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')I wouldn't disparage all curve fitting. When done well it can be quite powerful. And while I don't think there is a theoretical foundation for the hubbert curve, I'll listen to the experience of geologists and engineers (Hubbert et al.) who have witnessed the local depletion of various sedimentary basins and expect the peak to happen sooner rather than later.

[nero]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')mm? People like Hubbert have been witnesses to a general trend/a recurring sets of events in the life of an oil field, plotted out a curve and proposed an equation for predicting the life of other oil wells based on gathered data... how does that make it NOT a theory? Is the witnessed trend of the theory of gravity lacking a theorietical base?
Aren't theories BASED on empirical data/witnessed events?

[EnviroEngr]

Spike/Mike,

Here's some questions for you:

(1) What hard data, actual source documents, have you personally analyzed regarding Saudi oil production, to include where you got the documents, who provided them to you, when they were provided to you, and where the documents are now, (include an itemization of all the source documents analyzed, specifying the title of the document, the source of the document, and the date of the document).

(2) Have you had access to any documents concerning Saudi oil production, capacity, reserves, decline rates, or field data that Mathew Simmons has not had? If so, list all the documents, their source, the dates reviewed, and provide a copy of all the information for review.

(3) What is your estimated EUR for Saudi Arabia? In answering this question, provide the source of your information and the data relied upon by that source.

(4) Is Saudi Arabia currently producing at maximum capacity? If the Saudi's are not producing at maximum capacity, what is their current maximum production capacity stated in BPD, and how did you arrive at this figure.

(5) What did Saudi Aramco spend in the years 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004 on exploration? What is the source of this information?

(6) What is the average decline rate of Saudi oil production? Again, as for all questions, provide the source of this information.

(7) What is the decline rate of the Gharwa reserve? What is the source of this information?

(8 What did the Saudis spend in the years 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 for increased production? What is the source of this information?

(9) List all countries that you agree are in a state of permanent decline in oil production;

(10) Do you believe that non-OPEC conventional oil production will peak? If so, when do you believe it will peak and what is the source of this information.

(11) When do you believe total world oil production will peak (both conventional and non-conventional)? What is the source or basis of this opinion? Please give your estimated URR for world oil, and provide the basis for this estimate.

(12) Do you believe an alternative to oil be found before your estimated peak in world oil production? If so, will the world shift to an alternative fuel due to a price increase in oil or due to some other reason? If due to an increase in oil price, what would the price have to be in today's dollars? If for some other reason, what would be the reason or reasons be to cause a shift from oil to some other fuel source.

(13) What will the energy source be that replaces oil? How much will it cost to develope? Will it be developed by private enterprise, governments, or a collaboration between the two?

(14) How much will it cost to restructure the world economy to use this new alternative fuel source? For example, new factories, new cars, new planes, etc, and where will this money come from?

(15) As an economist, will the shift to an alternative energy source be instituted by oil companies, other private companies, governments, individuals or a combination? Explain the analysis of how you believe this shift will occur.

(16) What is the maximum production capacity (in BPD) of world oil production prior to your estimated date of world peak. How much of this oil will be conventional oil, how much will be non-conventional oil, how much will come from non-opec countries, how much from OPEC.

(17) What will world oil demand be, stated in BPD, when your estimated world oil production will peak?

(18 What do you agree is a safe prediction for a yearly increase in world demand for oil, up through the year 2020?

(19) What is figure do you use (expressed as a percentage) to calculate average world decline rates in oil production from now until the year 2020?

(20) What figure do you use (expressed as a percentage), to calculate increases in world demand from now until 2030?

(21) Do you agree with the recent Petroleum Review analysis that the world is losing in excess of over a million barrels of oil a day through normal decline rates? If you disagree, state why and what is the source of your information.

(22) What will world oil demand be in the year 2020 (stated in BPD)? What percentage of this demand will be met by OPEC? What percentage will be met by non-conventional oil? And please state how much each of the following countries will have to produce to meet that estimate of world demand in 2020, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Russia, Nigeria, Algeria, Canada.

(23) How much investment in exploration and production is needed each year to produce enough oil to meet world oil demand in the year 2020?

(24) What is your estimated date of peak for each of the following countries, and state your estimate for their maximum oil production at peak - Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, Iraq.

(25) Will it be necessary for Saudi Arabia to allow outside companies to invest in its exploration/production to meet world demand in 2020?

(26) Will it be necessary for Iran to allow outside companies to invest in its exploration/production to meet world demand in 2020?

(27) Will it be necessary for Russia to allow outside companies to invest in its exploration/production to meet world demand in 2020?

(28 In 2004, you stated that the price per barrel of oil would be back to $30 by the summer of 2005. Do you still stick to this prediction? Why has this not happened?

[OilsNotWell]

(29) In the interests of full disclosure, could you explain in more detail your work for the Saudis and in the short sell market, which you disclosed in the April 7 and 8 JP Morgan conference call, entitled: "Peak Oil: Fact or Fiction?" as reported by Energy Bulletin? [source:Energy Bulletin: Peak Oil-Debate or Vendetta?] In what capacity have you been renumerated? Does your contract agreement specify acting in a capacity of making public statements and appearances to refute and/or mitigate the concept of peak oil?

(30) Additionally, as reported from the same source, do you continue to believe that the book by Matt Simmons, 'Twilight in the Desert', is 'content free'"?

(31) Would you please clarify what you meant, and understand to mean, by your term 'poltical reserves' as reported in this passage:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ven Lynch admits that OPEC's reserves numbers in the past were often referred to as "political reserves.” Lynch says: "I was in Kuwait in 1987 and we were laughing about the reserves numbers. Everyone knew those numbers were not reliable.”

[EnviroEngr]

Michael,

Until I get a better plan, go ahead and reply right here on this thread and later, as the dialogue gets rolling, I'll reformat it and post it all into your Experts sub-forum.

Email me if something isn't working right.

[EnviroEngr]

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic4138.html


Once Mike's Discussion thread has grown a bit, I'll begin distilling the Q & A session into a "Best of the Best" archive over here.

[EnviroEngr]

In retrospect, leaving everything on the PO Discussion thread and copying the best of it over to your sub-forum makes more sense:
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic4138.html

[traderm]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GP6DhKGDzek

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1t4ue-W ... re=channel

Two very interesting youtube vidoes on Saudi's reserve.

_________________

The Road Ahead

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('traderm', 'h')ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GP6DhKGDzek

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1t4ue-W ... re=channel

Two very interesting youtube vidoes on Saudi's reserve.

[marko]

In an op-ed piece in today's New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/opinion/25lynch.html), Michael Lynch argues that peak oil will not happen in the lifetime of anyone alive today.

To me, the cornerstone of his argument is that new discoveries are keeping pace with depletion. He argues that ASPO and other peak-oil predicters refer only to discoveries of new fields in their claim that discoveries peaked in the mid- to late 1960s. He argues that they ignore upward revisions to the recoverable reserves in already-discovered fields that have allowed the growth in recoverable reserves to keep pace with the rate of depletion.

Can anyone point me to a published source that refutes this argument? Can anyone on this forum convincingly refute it?

Thanks.

[TheAntiDoomer]

you can start with OF2's discovery catalog:

http://peakoil.com/peak-oil-discussion/ ... 4-660.html

[vision-master]

Ok, time to shut down this website then.......

[lowem]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'O')k, time to shut down this website then.......

[DantesPeak]

Lynch cheerfully ignores the fact the oil output - real oil and not gas-to-oil, ethanol, etc. - has already peaked out and it doesn't appear that it will be climbing soon.

I'll guess his response to that fact, if asked, is that there is 'unsued capacity' that was not available last summer at $146 oil, but will be available now that the price is half as much as before.

For the benefit of newcomers, Lynch actually posted here a while back, but eventually pulled away in the face of tough questions about his predictions. Perhaps someone could challenge him to come back here. I don't think he will, mostly because his record in recent years has not been good (despite having mostly correctly understood the oil market about 8 years ago).

[TheDude]

Lynch and other petroleum cornucopians strike a very odd pose to make their claims; it's sort of the ne plus ultra of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. For instance, Iran. Hundreds of billions of proven reserves? OK. So that's why they're importing product and switching their vehicle fleet over to NG, and their infrastructure is rusting; read Lisa Margonelli's book Oil on the Brain, where she visits an Iranian offshore platform that's not only covered in tarnish, but still riddled with holes from shelling during the war with Iraq.

Not relevant? It's a bit more complex world than that. Iran no doubt has billions of barrels in the ground; we could remove the overburden of shallow fields and directly extract it as well, but I digress.

This graph conveys what is different about the current situation:



Aside from the very obvious secular downturn, what's noteworthy is that production advance has been close to 0 for a number of years, as opposed to the single year downturns of the past, which almost never ventured into negative territory, either. This indicates that the past was blessed with flush production which could pull the world out of whatever temporary downturn it faced; where will that come from now?

[ian807]

If it was possible to do what the article claims, why is it that the USA had an oil production peak in the 70s?

If technology and new exploration were all that were needed, wouldn't we just go exploit the say, the Bakken oil fields and move on with our lives without OPEC?

Seems a little silly. If we could do it, we would do it. Unless it's just not doable in an economical or energy positive way.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ian807', 'I')f it was possible to do what the article claims, why is it that the USA had an oil production peak in the 70s?

If technology and new exploration were all that were needed, wouldn't we just go exploit the say, the Bakken oil fields and move on with our lives without OPEC?

Seems a little silly. If we could do it, we would do it. Unless it's just not doable in an economical or energy positive way.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marko', 'C')an anyone point me to a published source that refutes this argument? Can anyone on this forum convincingly refute it?