[BrianC]

Solar Power To Overtake Oil Production Investment For First Time (reuters.com) 57
Posted by BeauHD on Friday May 26, 2023 @06:00AM from the times-they-are-a-changin' dept.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), investment in clean energy is set to surpass spending on fossil fuels in 2023, with solar projects expected to outpace oil production for the first time. Reuters reports:
Annual investment in renewable energy is up by nearly a quarter since 2021 compared to a 15% rise for fossil fuels, the Paris-based energy watchdog said in its World Energy Investment report. Around 90% of that clean energy spending comes from advanced economies and China, however, highlighting the global divide between rich and poor countries as fossil fuel investment is still double the levels needed to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century.

Around $2.8 trillion is set to be invested in energy worldwide in 2023, of which more than $1.7 trillion is expected to go to renewables, nuclear power, electric vehicles, and efficiency improvements. The rest, or around $1 trillion, will go to oil, gas and coal, demand for the last of which will reach an all-time high or six times the level needed in 2030 to reach net zero by 2050.

Current fossil fuel spending is significantly higher than what it should be to reach the goal of net zero by mid-century, the agency said. In 2023, solar power spending is due to hit more than $1 billion a day or $382 billion for the year, while investment in oil production will stand at $371 billion. Investment in new fossil fuel supply will rise by 6% in 2023 to $950 billion, the IEA added.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 023-05-25/

[theluckycountry]

I wouldn't regard the money poured into solar as an "Investment" anymore than I would the money poured into private and commercial vehicles as an investment. You can spin it that way and companies do, but it's just an overhead, the purchase of equipment that will begin degrading the moment it's erected under the sun. In 15 or 20 years they are worn out and another purchase will need to be made.

If the panels were generating enough surplus to run a mine and factory that over time created the new panels, then I would call that an investment. Like a farm or a factory whose profits allow for maintenance and resupply. Solar and wind are just novel ways of using MORE oil and coal, right at the point in history when we should be using drastically less.

The World count reduce it's oil and coal use by 90% by simply giving up all the modern luxuries we are addicted to, Street lighting, Air conditioning, endless vehicular travel, endless production of worthless consumer goods that go into the landfill not long after sale. But that scenario belongs in a Disney movie, not in any real world inhabited by the greedy human species.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'I')f the panels were generating enough surplus to run a mine and factory that over time created the new panels, then I would call that an investment.

[BrianC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Top Solar Firm Warns Excess Capacity Risks Wave of Failures (caixinglobal.com) 5
Posted by msmash on Friday May 26, 2023 @03:20PM from the how-about-that dept.
China's world-leading solar industry could face a wave of bankruptcies if the current aggressive expansion of manufacturing capacity continues, according to the sector's biggest player. From a report:
More than half of China's solar manufacturers could be forced out in the next two to three years because of excess capacity, Li Zhenguo, president of Longi Green Energy Technology, said during an interview Wednesday on the sidelines of the SNEC PV Power Expo in Shanghai. "Those that will be hurt first will be those that are not prepared sufficiently," he said. Companies with weaker finances and less-advanced technology are most at risk, according to Li.

The global solar market is growing rapidly, with installations expected to rise 36% this year to 344 gigawatts, according to BloombergNEF. But factories are expanding even faster. One step in the supply chain alone -- producing the polysilicon that goes into the panels -- will see capacity rise enough to produce 600 gigawatts this year, BloombergNEF analyst Jenny Chase said in a presentation at SNEC earlier this week. "There will be a price crash, it will hurt, and there will probably be bankruptcies across the industry," she said. Others pushed back against overcapacity concerns. Companies that are expanding are doing so because their customers need it, said Li Junfeng, executive council member of the China Energy Research Society.

[ralfy]

Solar power promises better returns for investors because of increasing demand for it worldwide.

Meanwhile, the oil needed for that solar power is experiencing diminishing returns: increasing amounts of money and energy needed to get decreasing amounts of oil, and even oil of lower quality.

The same thing is happening for minerals needed for solar power.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')pril 2013 - Solar energy has a reputation as being a clean energy source but hasn't earned it — at least not up until now. That's because in a darkly ironic truth, the power used to manufacture solar panels still comes mainly from electricity generated by fossil fuels. But a new study from Stanford researchers says that the balance may be tipping: all the solar panels online around the world last year produced enough energy to make up for the energy it took to make them. The future looks even brighter with researchers projecting that the industry will be generating enough power between 2015 and 2020 to offset all of the historic creation costs.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'I')f the panels were generating enough surplus to run a mine and factory that over time created the new panels, then I would call that an investment.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'I')f the panels were generating enough surplus to run a mine and factory that over time created the new panels, then I would call that an investment.

[theluckycountry]

It's really fascinating to see all these Great and Grand promises for the future of modern civilization collapse in a heap. But we shouldn't be surprised, we have seen it all before, time and again. Consider the Nuclear power revolution as it was touted back in the 1950's. Electricity too cheap to meter was the bold claim. Of course anyone with a modicum of intelligence would have pointed out that someone had to pay for the poles and wires, the transformers, the maintenance and replacement of such.

Even while people still had a twinkle in their eye over that wonder of technology, the Space Age burst upon them. A mission to the Moon, Men on the moon! Then off to mars, great earth orbiting space stations, and one day, obviously after our Lunar and Mars colonies were established, the first trips into interstellar space. And it all made perfect sense too, if you didn't think too deeply about it. We are Dreamers we humans, it's the source of our greatest inspirations, but alas practical reality has a nasty habit of intruding on our dreams and we awake with a start!

Such was the case with nuclear power, and such was the case with the "Space Age" In the end both ran into the brick walls of Physics and available energy, money/capital, and practical necessity. Nuclear power became a victim of it's high costs. It wasn't as promised, too cheap to meter, far from it! And the space age surrendered to spy satellites, mundane phone conversations, and football transmissions. What an ignominious end to such a great dream. Gaming and pornography instead of a colony ship to Alpha Centauri.

So here we are, decades later, finally seeing the end of two other promised transitions. The Electric car and so called, "renewable energy". Both began with great fanfare and reassuring promises and if anyone had dared to look behind the scenes, and many did, these were shown to be false promises. But in the pursuit of progress rational debate is not allowed. Detractors, or "Haters" as they are now branded must be silenced. Not because they will upset the apple-cart, that will happen on it's own. But simply because people don't want to be awoken from their dreams. I wonder about those dreams today, do people have them in the small hours of the night? Dreaming now though of flat batteries in dark neighborhoods? Of endless weeks of overcast and their homes going silent and cold from lack of sunlight on their panels?

Oh well, we still have AI to believe in don't we boys and girls. AI, the bringer of all wisdom and enlightenment. And soon we'll be sitting in parks eating cakes while our robots scurry silently about behind the scenes doing all the mundane work that used to enslave up. Well that is the Dream at least.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'I')t's really fascinating to see all these Great and Grand promises for the future of modern civilization collapse in a heap.

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')As far as civilization...please....human history is repleat with those collapsing all the time.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')As far as civilization...please....human history is repleat with those collapsing all the time.

[theluckycountry]

Coming Clean on Clean Energy: It’s a Dirty Business

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')nless you’ve been living under a rock, you are probably aware of the massive push to transition to green energy. The goal is to have wind and solar replace coal and natural gas; the electric vehicle (EV) will supposedly replace internal combustion engines... We are being told that these technologies are clean and will save the planet from climate change. However, these alternative forms of energy being espoused are riddled with their own problems.

Hidden behind the solar panels, wind turbines, and EV batteries are some dirty secrets that get swept under the rug and ignored by climate enthusiasts... The American Consumer Institute just released a report detailing many of the environmental impacts associated with the so-called green energy forms being heavily promoted. The life cycle of all three—the wind turbine, solar panel, and EV battery—involve significant environmental consequences that should not be overlooked and need to be part of the discussion when implementing energy policies.

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '
')It almost looks like the West is too dumb to continue. I wonder if already has collapsed. Mentally at least.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '
')It almost looks like the West is too dumb to continue. I wonder if already has collapsed. Mentally at least.

[Shaved Monkey]

In Australia
72% renewable for 30 minutes
Still a way to go but seem to be a step in the right direction
Australias grid is connected over the whole country on the East Coast the west coast is also connected but the dessert and lack of population in between has made it costly and difficult to connect the East to the West
https://www.energynetworks.com.au/asset ... /pic_2.jpg

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he nation’s east coast power grid has notched a record-breaking half-hour of running on 72 per cent renewable energy – a major milestone in the transition away from burning fossil fuels.
Renewables on average now accounted for 40 per cent of supply in the eastern states’ grid, the AEMO reports say, and are peaking at “world-leading” levels above 72 per cent for short bursts.

In one 30-minute interval last December, rooftop solar provided more than 100 per cent of South Australia’s entire underlying demand.

Last year, an average of 7 per cent of east-coast electricity came from large-scale solar farms, 13 per cent from wind turbines and 12 per cent from rooftop solar panels.
More than 3 million homes – or one in three – are now fitted with solar panels, the highest per-capita take-up rate of any nation.
AEMO expects household solar panels to be on 80 per cent of Australian households by 2050

The nation’s energy ministers last month signed off on a plan that would standardise their inverters.
The new standards would ensure inverters remain connected to the grid if the network is disrupted.

A world-first Australian trial proved, in February this year, that electric vehicles fitted with appropriate technology at the point of charging can detect a disruption in the grid’s electricity supply and send power back into the network.

[theluckycountry]

The US could have had cheap home solar too, 40 years ago, but their economy is shot to hell now, the government broke. Australia is beacon in an ever darkening world. It's our political system of course, it's more honest and fair and returns a lot of the revenue to the people instead of using it to support a swamp of multinational corporations. Just last week I received a $1000 cost of living bonus credited to my power bill, and the tariff had already dropped 2-cents a kWh! They look after you up here in the luckycountry

[theluckycountry]

Now having said that Truth. We must go on to say that in 25 or 50 years the infrastructure that built and transported these solar miracles will be gone or severely limited (ships run on oil). And with that infrastructure gone all the household solar goes too. A good chunk of the system is the poles transformers and wires and they cost just as much to maintain as the purchase and installation of the solar panels that currently get a free ride on their back. The solar systems may be good for 20 years but the grid requires constant expensive maintenance. As for large scale, forget it.

https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/po ... 605-p5ddxx

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'T')he US could have had cheap home solar too, 40 years ago, but their economy is shot to hell now, the government broke.

[theluckycountry]

Why Renewables Cannot Replace Fossil Fuels
It’s all in the math and physics.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')olar panels adorn the roof of my Colorado home. I helped build two large solar farms. I felt sure I was helping mitigate global warming, and it felt good! And as a happy additional benefit, Colorado’s net-metering meant my electric bill for the sunny summer months was $0. A win for the climate and a win for me. Or so I thought.

My journey began when, as a concerned scientist, I decided to understand what it would take to clean up America’s fossil-fueled electric power systems. Wind and sunshine are free and plentiful. It seemed to make perfect sense to put them to work cleaning up dirty and polluting power plants... But the problem is that word “replace.” A coal plant generates electricity 24 hours a day, seven days a week, rain or shine, all year long. Solar panels, on the other hand, suffer through nights, clouds, dust, snow, and weak winter sun, all of which impact a solar panel’s ability to generate electricity. In fact, and on an annual basis, the average North American solar farm generates meaningful power less than 20 percent of the time.

I’d never really thought about that. Obviously, power for 20 percent of the time can’t replace 24-hour dispatchable (whenever needed) baseload power. To cover those huge night and dark-day gaps, and to keep the lights always on, something else is needed—a lot of something else. In Colorado and elsewhere, most of that something else, most of those gaps, are filled with power from coal or gas plants. And that is the problem. Although solar farms have allowed fossil-fueled plants to cut back and save emissions on sunny days, they haven’t been able to replace them 24/7 and obviously cannot do so by themselves.

The result is that to fill the power gap, utilities employing solar and wind farms still need to keep their fossil-fueled generators running to provide power when the sun isn’t shining or the wind not blowing.

Many of us have hoped that batteries could someday fill the gaps by storing and saving energy that could be distributed when needed to fill the gaps. Unfortunately, there is no known technology that can efficiently and economically store the incredible amount of energy required for the length of time required. In winter, for example, clouds can cover most of the continent for a week or more, shutting down solar production (the output from solar farms drops by 75 to 90 percent when clouds cover the sun). Batteries can store enough power for a few hours, but storing enough electricity in batteries to power the nation for a cloudy week is simply not feasible. And as we electrify everything, the demand and the gap will grow exponentially.