[jedrider]

Sentiment towards the fate of the World heading unrelentingly downwards. Stock market goes up. Nothing new there.

[jato0072]

All of the trillions of digital funny money has to go somewhere.

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato0072', 'A')ll of the trillions of digital funny money has to go somewhere.

[theluckycountry]

Too late now, but if investors had have read this on October 18, 2023 they might have saved a fortune. A good read at any time though.

Avoid Getting Caught Up In Big Market Delusions: The Case Study Of Electric Vehicles

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')xecutive Summary

A key value proposition for financial advisors is helping clients avoid common behavioral biases that can lead to suboptimal investment decisions. Even people who are normally rational decision-makers can be prone to fear, greed, and overconfidence, and the persistence of market bubbles where investors chase whatever company or sector is all the rage at the time (and often get stuck with losses when the bubble pops) shows that herd mentality in investing is as prevalent as ever. Which often leads to advisors counseling their clients to stay diversified and stick with a disciplined investment strategy to optimize their risk and return over the long term.

But even today, despite the evidence we have about our tendencies to make irrational choices, people still often fall prey to herd mentality in their investment decisions, as demonstrated by modern-day bubbles around meme stocks and cryptocurrencies. Even professional investors such as venture capitalists aren't immune either, with the rise and fall of companies like WeWork and Theranos showing that sophisticated investors can be enticed to abandon a disciplined approach by a sales pitch that's too good to be true. In fact, as more and more technology proliferates, with much of it promising to have a worldwide and life-changing impact, the temptation to chase the next big thing may grow even stronger.

However, it isn't just individual companies or speculative assets like Bitcoin that can be prone to bubbles. When a new technology or product is introduced that has the potential to reach a huge new market, investors tend to bet on many (or even all) of the companies that provide the technology as if they will each become the dominant player in that market. And because every company can't possibly become a winner (since they're competing with each other, and one company's success will necessarily come at the other's expense), this tends to result in the entire industry becoming overvalued. Investors' enthusiasm tends to feed on itself, resulting in increasingly unrealistic valuations, until suddenly reality comes into focus, and prices drop for all companies in the industry – often wiping out some companies and creating severe losses even in the ones that do survive.

There tend to be 4 main signs of this type of "Big Market Delusion", which have been present in market bubbles ranging from the 1990s dot-com boom to the 2000s digital advertising market to the 2010s cannabis industry. First, there is a story of a vast potential market for a new technology or product; second, investors and entrepreneurs tend to ignore the possibility that competition will squeeze profits for existing companies and reduce expectations for future revenues; third, companies focus overwhelmingly on growth in users or revenue as the primary metric rather than profitability; and finally, the valuations for these companies grow with no connection to their underlying fundamentals. And though it may not be possible to time exactly when a big market bubble will burst, these signs make it highly likely that a correction will happen eventually.

The key point is that when an investor bets on a new technology or industry becoming huge based on the size of its potential market, even 'diversifying' by investing in multiple companies within that industry won't necessarily protect them from losses, because when the entire industry becomes overvalued, the resulting correction is likely to affect everyone. The simple way to avoid getting caught up in big market delusions is by remaining broadly diversified across markets – and for advisors, the lessons learned from previous examples of big market delusions can help guide clients on avoiding the next one!

[theluckycountry]

NVDA

The Lion of AI. It's price is collapsing, down from $136 a share back on July 10 to $111 today. What happened in June though? Nvidia started trading on a new 10-for-1 split basis

Revising the Nvidia stock price before the split of $1,208.88 to $120.

I have seen this time and time again, just before a stock collapses, like Tesla and Microsoft etc, they do a split, they spin it as making the shares easier to buy? Like as if. The real purpose it to reduce "sticker shock" We all know the phenomena, they price a loaf of bread at $4.89, because it's not $5. In these stock splits they lower the price so that when it begins it's collapse it doesn't look as BAD. Without this split the NVDA price today would be $1110, down from $1370 at the peak on June 20.

The key takeaway is that now you won't see the stock fall from over a thousand back to triple digits. You will see it drop to double digits but psychologically that's not so bad.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/NVDA/overview

Media spin:
https://www.techopedia.com/nvidia-stock-split
Key Takeaways

Next time sell at the stock split.
Nvidia completed a ten-for-one stock split on June 7, 2024.
NVDA stock price has soared over the past year.
The move has made owning its stock more affordable.
Nvidia has now split its stock six times since 1999.
Investors must still analyze the company’s prospects before making any investment decisions.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')Revising the Nvidia stock price before the split of $1,208.88 to $120.

[theluckycountry]

Buffett Calls The Top: Berkshire Quietly Dumps Half Its Apple Shares Amid Unprecedented Selling Spree https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/buffe ... iquidation

Well there's a big confirm that the AI bubble has popped, what was the next Bubble? Was there a next Bubble? Or is it wrap for this 100 year cycle?

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')
The simplest way to do well in the stock market is to buy shares of great companies and then do nothing but hold on for many years. That's why the Motley Fool emphasizes a long-term investing strategy.

Which simply means, you buy at the high price as the smart money sells off, and you carry the losses while they take all the profits.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')
Then hold until economic growth resumes and the stocks go much higher.

Get it now?

Cheers!

[theluckycountry]

Insider Selling Alert
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Buffett's Vice Chairman Dumps Over Half Of His Berkshire Shares
Berkshire’s vice chair of insurance operations, Ajit Jain, has sold $139 million worth of his Class A shares.
Jain disposed of 200 of the Class A Berkshire shares for about $695,418 each, according to a regulatory filing Wednesday. The disposal means the long-term executive is left with control of 166 such shares, 61 of which he directly owns.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Then hold until economic growth resumes and the stocks go much higher.
Get it now?
Cheers!

[theluckycountry]

Just remember, if you have stocks you're the "beneficial owner" of them, not the "Legal owner" Under changes in the legal codes implemented since 2000 Legal ownership entities can take full control of them AND sell them at any price. Of course this would only be done in an emergency, like a massive crash. Either way they aren't your legal property like once was the case. The same rules apply to segregated accounts as well.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'J')ust remember, if you have stocks you're the "beneficial owner" of them, not the "Legal owner"

[theluckycountry]

If you're posting adam, include intelligent articles or news, not just your own bum ramblings, no one is interested in bum ramblings, they only lower the standard of the forum.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'I')f you're posting adam, include intelligent articles or news, not just your own bum ramblings, no one is interested in bum ramblings, they only lower the standard of the forum.

[theluckycountry]

Have you seen the DOW and that NASDQ thing you have over there?
The Aussie market is the ASX, it reached a peak in 2007 of nearly 7000, then crashed 50% to 3500 odd. It wasn't a pretty sight. At the same time the DOW crashed from 14,000 to 7000, 50% also.

Today the DOW is 40,000. That's all the manic bubbles over there, it's up 570%
The ASX is at 8000, up to just beyond it's last peak in 2007. Now if you were an idiot you'd assume that the US economy is doing gangbusters and the Aussie is in the toilet. But it's actually the Aussie economy that's ticking along fine and the US that's collapsing. Now ask yourself where that 40,000 bubble market will land when it collapses this time? The aussie will drop too, like from the footpath to the street but the US market will be falling from the seventh floor *Splat*

That's when Americans will wake up Broke. Their delusional pensions stripped bare, and standing over them will the fascist government ordering them into food banks and probably FEMA camps. Only the law abiding that is, the Gangs that rule the streets there will move into the suburban houses The land of the Blacks and the Home of the Venezuelan.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/ind ... jones?op=1
https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx200


NYPD targets bloodthirsty Venezuelan gang as it forms base in sanctuary city
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nypd-t ... tuary-city

HERRIMAN, Utah (KUTV) — Investigators said "Venezuelan groups" were involved in a weekend shooting in Herriman
https://kutv.com/news/local/police-say- ... n-shooting

Did the gang take over a hotel in El Paso?

During his press conference, Abbott noted that more than 100 TDA members had been arrested at the Gateway Hotel in downtown El Paso on charges including human smuggling and possession of illegal drugs. Some media reports described it as a “takeover” of the hotel by the gang. https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2024/09 ... targeting/

It's endemic, and that's just One SA gang that's taking over. I'm really amazed at how far that former 1st world nation has fallen. It's like the fall of Rome.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'H')ave you seen the DOW and that NASDQ thing you have over there?

[theluckycountry]

[AdamB]

[theluckycountry]

Warren Buffett Sold $133 Billion Worth of Stocks This Year:
Old news now, but he's still selling because you can't sell all in one drop or you'll spook the market. People idolize ol Buffett because he always gets it right, but they don't follow his lead, strange that? It doesn't matter what spin he puts on the sales, he's selling and so should you!

Stocks Poised To Plunge -55% (Or Worse) Soon | Henrik Zeberg

Well that's outlandish, or is it? It happened in 2008 didn't it. Anyone remember that? Adam's probably forgot it and even if he hasn't he's a total believer in the greatness of the American enterprise so he'll be all in still. Probably EV and windmill stocks

But on to the story above
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')By many measures, stocks are richly valued. And by measures like the Buffett Indicator, they're the most overvalued they've EVER been. Does that strongly suggest a downwards market correction lies in store for 2025? Or is there a good reason that "this time is truly different" and a new bull era for stocks awaits?

To discuss, we're fortunate to welcome to the program market analyst Henrik Zeberg, publisher of the Zeberg Report. Once credit spreads start to widen, he thinks the S&P may crash -50% (or more) in 2025. Here are my key takeaways from this discussion with Henrik:

Henrik describes the current market valuations as unprecedented, with the Buffett Indicator showing stocks are more overvalued than at any point in history. He believes the bubble in equities is fueled by excessive liquidity and speculative fervor, particularly in assets like cryptocurrencies and meme stocks. Cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, are nearing all-time highs, reflecting speculative behavior. He draws parallels to prior crashes and warns that this bubble will result in a significant correction.

Henrik predicts a severe recession in 2025, potentially worse than the 2008 financial crisis. This will follow a market peak reached in the next 1-2 months, with the S&P 500 reaching 6,300-6,400 before collapsing. He emphasizes that recessions typically follow market peaks by 2-3 months. The depth of this recession will be amplified by the bursting of interconnected asset bubbles in equities, cryptocurrencies, and private equity markets.

Henrik’s market outlook is comprised of two phases. They are:

Phase 1 (Deflationary Bust): this phase will involve a sharp market sell-off, with the S&P 500 potentially falling 50-55% to around 3,600. This will mirror prior downturns like the financial crisis of 2008. The deflationary environment will also see unemployment rise, consumption decline, and financial markets contract.

Phase 2 (Stagflationary Environment): Central bank and government responses, such as aggressive monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, could spark inflation. Combined with stagnant economic recovery, this will result in stagflation. Commodities, particularly gold and silver, will likely surge as monetary stimulus fuels speculative demand in real assets.

Henrik notes that leading indicators, such as yield curve inversions, have been signaling economic distress for years. Current labor market data show rising credit card delinquencies and unemployment claims, suggesting the real economy is under strain. Payroll revisions for 2024 are expected to reveal weaker job growth than officially reported. Henrik points out that lagging indicators, such as unemployment, often fail to capture the immediate pressure on households and businesses....