How can I make the most money via Peak Oil?
Own your own oil deposit with easy access to withdrawal the oil. You'll make a killing.
PeakOil is You
How can I make the most money via Peak Oil?
Re: How can I make the most money via Peak Oil?
by goldmund52 » Sat 21 May 2005, 02:37:58
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JoeW', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('goldmund52', '
')2. I think that the big problem with energy stock is that they are presently fully valued or over valued. If the broad stock market tanks badly the energy stocks will drop like a rock until their PE's are more realistic, even though the companies will be churning out profits.
')2. I think that the big problem with energy stock is that they are presently fully valued or over valued. If the broad stock market tanks badly the energy stocks will drop like a rock until their PE's are more realistic, even though the companies will be churning out profits.
Hey Goldmund, I'm not sure I agree on this. What's wrong with Chevron-Texaco (CVX)? It has a P/E of about 8.5. On the surface, it doesn't look over-valued.
[full disclosure: i don't own any, but was thinking about buying some]
I agree, I spoke without checking the recent earnings. You (and tdrive) are right on the P/E's being reasonable. The oil majors seem to get whipsawed a lot by market sentiment but they are probably a good way to get exposure to a rising oil market.
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goldmund52 - Wood
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by bobcousins » Sat 21 May 2005, 07:32:19
Investing in an industry on its way out seems like a bad idea. If things get as worse as predicted then governments will nationalise oil companies and your investment may be lost. If things don't get bad, then it will be because of recession or because alternative sources become available. This will increase the elasticity of oil demand, and margins will fall.
Having said that, any oil companies with a strategy of moving away from oil would be a good play. Theoretically they have plenty of money to invest, and can leverage their distribution channels, which currently act as a block to distribution of biofuels.
Having said that, any oil companies with a strategy of moving away from oil would be a good play. Theoretically they have plenty of money to invest, and can leverage their distribution channels, which currently act as a block to distribution of biofuels.
It's all downhill from here
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by halfin » Sun 22 May 2005, 19:53:30
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('arretium', 'H')ow can I make the most money via Peak Oil?
Own your own oil deposit with easy access to withdrawal the oil. You'll make a killing.
Own your own oil deposit with easy access to withdrawal the oil. You'll make a killing.
That might be right, but consider this. Suppose you just came into possession of an oil well - you inherited it when a forgotten great-uncle died. What will you do with the oil? Suppose you're only interested in making the most money possible.
Will you pump it as hard and fast as you can so that you can drain it as quickly as possible and sell it at today's prices of about $50/barrel?
Or will you wait and sell it when prices have gone up, and oil is $100, $200 or even possibly more expensive? Wouldn't that make more sense?
Unfortunately, you're not in this position. But there are those who are. They are called oil companies.
If you ran an oil company, and your only incentive was to make as much money as possible, would you be pumping the oil as fast as you could today? Or wouldn't you back off and decide that it was made more financial sense to keep the oil in the ground, so you could sell it when it was worth far more?
Yet, this is not how oil companies behave. They're pumping their oil. So is everyone else. All over the world people are pumping oil at every increasing levels, doing all they can to sell off this valuable resource at today's prices.
Why is this? I honestly don't understand it. The only explanation I can see is that these people, who run the oil business and are experts at everything involving oil production, supply and demand, don't believe in Peak Oil scenarios. They don't think prices are going to increase dramatically in a few years. So they are selling today while they can make good money.
What other explanation is there?
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by FatherOfTwo » Wed 25 May 2005, 11:41:14
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', 'I')nvesting in an industry on its way out seems like a bad idea.
How do you explain the massive buybacks that the oil majors are doing?
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FatherOfTwo - Tar Sands
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