[theluckycountry]

First halving November 28, 2012 $12.4
Second halving July 9, 2016 $680
Third halving May 11, 2020 $8,590

After each previous halving the price began a steady climb for some months before going into an exponential blow off https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ (All Data)

There was no significant contraction in price after the halving that I can see from the chart. Prior to the last two halvings there was significant volatility in the months leading up, just as we see now.
None of this is evidence in and of itself that a similar exponential upswing in price will occur after this halving. It's just what happened three times before. For an exponential increase you would need buyers, lots of buyers whose demand pushes up the price.

Large corporations like Tesla, netflix, Meta, Amazon etc, executed cumulative stock splits of up to 20:1 as their multi-thousand dollar shares began to collapse in price or stagnate a few years ago. This had the twin effects of making the price seen more affordable as well as hiding the fact they had fallen by a thousand dollars and more. Of course this was to present the stocks as stable investments for retirement accounts etc and does not apply to BC since it is a purely speculative buy, as is evidenced by it's recurrent massive gains and massive losses.

One thing of note though, the price rises and collapses of Bitcoin follow a recognizable pattern. They now mirror the rise and fall of the major technology stocks with the same peaks and lows. I don't find this surprising since BC has moved firmly into Wall Street camp with the shift to exchanges and the new derivatives and ETF's. To my mind if you're betting on BC going to the moon you're betting on the major technology stocks having commensurate great increases in price. Difficult to see in the current environment.

Just click on any of the tech stocks listed above and compare the long term chart with the BC all data chart linked above also.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG?nc ... m0o32z3jzm

[careinke]

Lucky,

Patience grasshopper, watch and learn.

Note the decreasing volatility this year, dips are less than 15% compared to 35-45% in previous cycles.

Hong Kong's ETF comes online tomorrow, and China is authorizing their people to buy it. Asia has a much higher risk tolerance with their investments than Western Countries.

How many times are you going to predict the demise of BTC before you figure out you are wrong? Based on your stands in the EV thread, I'm guessing at least two more cycles.

In the end everyone will buy BTC at the price they deserve.

Peace

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')
In the end everyone will buy BTC ...

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')
In the end everyone will buy BTC ...

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
') If I were you, I'd make it my mission to turn him into a carnivore, he probably has a phobia of eating things with faces. Does he eat shellfish?

[theluckycountry]

OOF



This is landmark folks.

Bitcoin has now collapsed well below it's previous 2021 Top. Not at the bottom of a bear market, but in the bull market phase.

It's the halving, it's not like other halvings. Now the cost of electricity is prohibitive for miners because the ledger is so massive.

6.5 million hodlers are currently tearing their hair out over on the reddit, funny to read https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/commen ... bpv/sales/

Must pop over and see what Saylor is saying... His company microstrategy has collapsed nearly 50% in the last month alone and is dropping like a stone. It was all in BT. So sad for the shareholders. So sad for saylor

[theluckycountry]

From a saylor video

"So bitcoin is a pretty profound thing"
"Bitcoin represents a digital transformation of Money Property and Energy, and that's profound"
"So what happens when software moves to it's vapor state"
"When the software leaps onto a mobile phone"
"Bitcoin represents conservation of energy.
"So what is the Universe... The Universe is made of energy"
"You're made of energy. You're a low frequency ball of energy"

Yeah right mate lol lol. Now take your losses and Fuckoff into the history books with Bernie Madoff and the Directors of Enron.

[theluckycountry]

Observe the rise of tech stocks along with BC in lockstep. It's part of the stockmarket now. Funny money goes up, Gold, Silver and oil decline. This is a pattern going way way back.

Unfortunately for those in the paper markets 95% of the 'paper' gets involved in things like big market shifts, where auto stocks decline over the decades, IT stocks come and go with innovations and mining stocks boom and bust. Then there are the 5% or so that are simple pump and dump schemes like the SPAC's and the shale oil companies that were doomed to a short run and rarely make money for investors in the traditional sense. Here you have to pick a winner, buy low and get the hell out when the bubble peaks. It's a Casino in the truest sense, the House are the big players and Wall Street that pedals the paper for commissions. They manipulate the stocks, they know when they will rise and fall basically.

Insiders in the real sense like Michael Saylor who sold into the top these last months, pulling his money out, selling the company microstrategy hand over fist. For the longest time his stock sat around the $100 mark but in March this year it peaked at $2000/share, he was selling into that top and beyond. He claims it was to buy BC but that is just a convenient cover story to not spook the market. Like when Bill Gates and Warren Buffet sold at the top in 2006 to roll money into their private foundation, or when Musk sold 30 Billion odd of Tesla near the top, the cover story there was buying Twitter but again there is no evidence that money went there, it could be in offshore accounts for all we know.

Did Saylor buy all BC like he claims? No investor worth the title puts all their eggs in one basket, that's the basic rule, the foundation. The really smart ones divide their wealth into real estate, commodities, shares and cash or Gold. The mix changing with the markets. Even whole coiners do this, it's just prudent. But Saylor says he didn't, do we believe him? Well he's one of the BC Gurus, a prophet to all the little fish. It's in his financial interest to say it. But nothing is 100% secure in the paper markets. Anything in the paper markets can, and has, gone to effectively Zero. pets.com, Wework ($500 down to 16 cents) Lots of EV companies now heading to Zero, lots of retail.

All these were thought to be bullet-proof when they were at their tops. Millions of hodlers had no idea they were about to lose all, but they did. Every time you hear Gurus, Academics and politicians telling you to throw away the rule book, claiming that "this new innovation" is going to the moon and if you don't get on board you'll miss out forever, you know that it's time to get your money out, Fast!

[theluckycountry]

Ok, we're two months into the Bitcoin collapse now, time to take stock. I must admit even I was surprised it didn't go higher, that is after it was clear it was in a bull run. My comments made six months ago were valid, for that time, as BC was still in it's trough stage and there was uncertainty it would take off as the last collapse took 3 years to recover and we'd only seen 2 years of action. Not that any of that analysis is worth a pinch of shit as far as BC is concerned but you have to go with something don't you.

But now it's been in a steady falling pattern for two months and that in the face of high interest rates. High rates? Could it be that the small pool of buyers still willing to chance this 'asset' have decided their money can make more money in conventional markets? One possibility I suppose. The coinheads like to believe that one day everyone will want to own it because... Everyone will want to own it lol. But really that's just frightened children whistling past the graveyard to keep their spirits up so to speak. Investors are leery at BC because it's so volatile, They don't mind making money but they also want it there when they need to spend it.

I personally know a hodler with 2 or 3 coins and he's happy because he bought them at around au$25k, but he's also very nervous at the same time. He doesn't want to lose his big gains, doesn't want to get out too early, and doesn't want to buy any more because of the risk factor. BC is the stressful asset it seems. Buying BC at these levels is a risk, as the past two months have clearly demonstrated. And very few believe shills like Saylor who says that by 2030, a million dollars a BC. No, that's far fetched, no one in their right mind would believe that!

So where does it leave us? It leaves us where we have always been, looking at a supposed asset that has no real world value, that consistently failed to fulfill the functions cited in it's founding white paper, and that has all the earmarks of a single number bet on a roulette wheel. Thank God I never bought into this scheme, sure I'd be a bit richer, but the mental cost! I think I'll go down and look at my above ground bullion, I like to do that while I still easily remember the combination on the safe.

The related tech stocks, like MSTR, are mostly all in multi month declines, the bubble has popped just like in the EV complex.

[theluckycountry]

Stop Press: Michael Saylor Reveals Bitcoin's Biggest Risk

Oh? I thought it was "risk free?" Apparently not.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n our wide ranging interview, we discussed bitcoin’s biggest risk, the effects of inflation, whether the Fed will raise or lower rates, whether Wall Street has officially embraced bitcoin, whether ETFs could actually be a negative for bitcoin,

[theluckycountry]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EomLM8Jpn6M Currently streaming (still)

Saylor supposedly set up some BC exchange or trust and if you get in now, like right NOW! He will double you're BC for you. Yes, he'll give you two for one. Just one more scam in the crypto sphere. It was in Jan 2024

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'L')ucky,

Patience grasshopper, watch and learn.

[theluckycountry]

Down to $62,809 from the all time peak of $72k back in May. BC is still floundering with a definite downward pattern now. I predict the next leg down will take it to the low 50k range. The halving was the death knell, it's just not affordable to mine now.

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'D')own to $62,809 from the all time peak of $72k back in May. BC is still floundering with a definite downward pattern now. I predict the next leg down will take it to the low 50k range. The halving was the death knell, it's just not affordable to mine now.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')
That would be awesome if it went to 50K.

Peace

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')
That would be awesome if it went to 50K.

Peace

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')Constantly falling in price???? LOL Have you looked at a chart showing the last 15 years??? I don't see it.

[careinke]

Lucky,

You are my own personal buy signal. You consistently show up when we reach a local bottom. Just like Jim Krammer, who has also been 100% wrong on all his BTC calls.

Obviously, you could not, provide any real proof, just a story about some plush toys. I anxiously await your slinky and Hula Hoop tales. Entertaining, but nothing to do with the hardest currency.

Satoshi could have extra stashes besides the one we know about, but it makes no difference who holds the most. We know the total amount of BTC that can ever be produced and when they will they will be rewarded to the miners. That cannot be changed. Can you say the same for any other currency?

Thanks, you have made me a lot of money.

Peace

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'L')ucky,

You are my own personal buy signal. You consistently show up when we reach a local bottom. Just like Jim Krammer, who has also been 100% wrong on all his BTC calls.

Thanks, you have made me a lot of money.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'L')ucky,

You are my own personal buy signal. You consistently show up when we reach a local bottom.