[jtmorgan61]

It seems like a lot of arguments about the various impacts and ramifications of peak oil come down to how fast the decline is going to be. I think there are a lot of people on these boards who expect that a decline of 2-3% will make for a reasonable if bumpy transition to alternative oil production and improved transportation efficiency, but a decline of something like 10% would be pretty catastrophic. So what's it going to be and why? Here's a small representative sample to start us off:

USA decline rate today: 1.78%
ASPO/Campbell: ~2%
Heinberg: "2.59% is the global decline rate today"
Skrebowski: ~5%
Simmons: "worried" that it will be 8-10%
Offshore fields produced with newest technology: 8-15%

[Aaron]

I say 50% + reduction in oil production...


Not from depletion, but because half of us won't be here.

[MicroHydro]

Not really sure what you are getting at Aaron, an abrupt dieoff of half of humanity from bird flu? Unlikely, epidemics get weaker as they travel.

Currently the established fields representing 70% of oil production are depleting at an average of 7% per year. This is somewhat mitigated by new fields coming online. After the last big projects are online, and we fall off the plateau, overall depletion will be at least 7%, quite possibly the 8% to 10% feared by Simmons. This rate of decline would make social collapse more likely than a smooth transition to a post carbon technology.

[Cool Hand Linc]

I believe the decline rate will vary from month to month and will also vary at different locations around the world but will average out to somewhere between 0.05% and 16.5% per year.

[turmoil]

"The more rapidly a civilization progresses, the sooner it dies for another to rise in its place." - Havelock Ellis, The Dance of Life

[honeylocust]

Cmon, Aaron, would you like to play a nice game of chess?

[Tyler_JC]

...another decline rate thread?...

The current estimates range from 2% to 8%.

I tend to believe we will see moderate decline (3%-4%) from 2006-2010. The global recession caused by this moderate decline will make any prediction of 2010-2015 production utter nonsense.

After that, I suppose we will see roughly 5% declines or higher. Probably higher considering what is happening in the North Sea and in Mexico.

I also believe that economic turmoil will disrupt the energy market and all of the other markets for that matter. The current banking system will not survive till 2020. This will have a major impact on oil production as the economy will not be able to function with such chaos.

This means that no more oil wells will be drilled in the Artic Sea (or at least not nearly enough).

ASPO's numbers are nonsense!

Look at their assumptions for Artic, Heavy, and NGL production in 2020+. I don't believe it and nor should you.

[venky]

Thats the critical question. There are these mega projects everyone seems to be talking about. They might offset a peak until post 2010.

Then there is reserve growth and smaller fields. There is also the offshore production in places such as the gulf. These will not offset peak as some say but might steady the decline to the 2-3% range that might ensure a bumpy though managable transistion.

For instance consider the US as an example. 35 years after the peak production is still close to about two-thirds of the peak value although this is mainly because of Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico. On the other extreme is the North Sea which I believe is down almost a third in just 6 years.

[Aaron]

http://peakoil.com/images/dr_albert_bartlett.mov

[venky]

I was just listening to Matt Simmons on financial sense. Made some scary predictions. Said it was possible that demand this winter could exceed supply by up to 2-5 million barrels. Pulpava said prices would go to $75-$80. Simmons then said it would much higher.

He then predicted that the 5 major oil fields of Saudi Arabia could quite possibly drop by 50 -70 % in 30 months. I actually shivered then.

In the end though he says he's optimistic we'll figure out a Plan B and a Plan C. Wonder how he can be if he believes half the stuff he spouts.

[LadyRuby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', 'I')n the end though he says he's optimistic we'll figure out a Plan B and a Plan C. Wonder how he can be if he believes half the stuff he spouts.

[jato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat Will be the Decline Rate?

[agmart]

I expect production to decline faster than capacity does. Indonesia is about to become a net importer just as oil is approaching record highs (adjusted for inflation). Countries where the economy isn't based on oil exports alone will want to avoid putting themselves in that position. Once peak oil is passed they will look out for their own interests and cut their exports. Some countries which may do this: Egypt, Malaysia, Columbia, Equador, Brazil and Mexico. Russia and Venezuela will use it to expand there influence. This means the oil importing countries are screwed.

[aahala]

I don't think we will actually be able to tell what the production decline
rate will be.

Once worldwide production really declines, there's likely to be a price
spike at some point sufficent to trigger a recession, dropping demand
and some wells capable of production will shut down, rather than produce
at a lower price. Eventually demand will pick up and so will price and
production, leading to another cycle of price, production and demand
swings. Over which timeframe are we to calculate the annual decline
in production??

[Cool Hand Linc]

Seriously,
I think the AVERAGE decline rate will be 3 to 3 1/2 percent.

I stress the average because so many factors will affect the decline rate. When new fields come online. When old fields go off line. The changing habits of end users of the products made from oil.

Once the first shock hits and the the majority of people see the reality of peak oil. They will begin to change and use less.

Also the decline AVERAGE will not reflect the reality of different parts of the world declining at different rates. Just as some countries have fat people and some have starving people today. Some countries will have less oil than others.

I believe an average taken over 20 years for the world will be about 3 percent.

I am just guessing. No data to support this. Just a gut feeling.

[0mar]

If two or three mega fields just simply collapse (Ghawar, North Sea, Cantarel), we can have double digit decline rates.

[Cool Hand Linc]

North Sea is in pretty steep decline already.

[LadyRuby]

Chevron's annual decline rates have been 3 to 6 percent in recent years but I'm assuming they dump terrible fields and add some better ones. So I think the average decline rate would be at at the higher end of that, 6% or so, maybe a little higher.

[venky]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', 'I')n the end though he says he's optimistic we'll figure out a Plan B and a Plan C. Wonder how he can be if he believes half the stuff he spouts.

[Taskforce_Unity]

"Klaus Rehaag, head of the Oil Industry and Market Department of the IEA, has calculated that 70% of the oil fields suffer from diminishing yields. The downfall comprises 7% this year, increasing to 10% in 2015. In 2015"

I think that in the beginning there will be a plateau (for around 5 years) then decline will increase until it reaches around 6-7% and oil production drops further very quickly when it stabilises at maybe 1-2% (and a very low oil production)