[Elijah]

we may feel a shortage accutely even before there really is one.

It may be starting. Here's a note from a small producer explaining how he's better off banking his natural gas in the ground while prices rise.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hay laugh in my face but I know that the crying is going on behind closed doors at the local buyers of our NG. I just curtailed deliveries to Union Carbide, Oramet, OSI, and Chevron as the price rise in future months dictates more to be made by keeping the gas in the ground. I tried, unsuccessfully to have these guys commit to a longer term pricing structure a couple months ago but they laughed at my predictions of double digit NG in the next year. I told them that I'm now predicting a spike to 13 or higher if heat persists and it is a normal to cold winter this year. They are laughing harder now again. Just finished speaking to the head of the Cabot Carbon black facility across the river, a good friend, and he told me that the word has travelled that NG might have to be purchased from Dominion along the river as supply is getting harder to buy from producers. We will be negotiating a contract next week for some gas to come from the wellhead to his facility at a slightly higher BTU adjusted pricing than the strip but guaranteed till next spring. He is not laughing and is smart enough to make sure of supply to be able to supply product to Goodyear at a price that he can still pass on.
As the old saying goes, It he who laughs last and with pricing going much higher in future years I know who that is gonna be. As other producers start to realize that they are sitting on gold mines , so to speak in the ground, and they do not need the extra cashflow anymore, nor can they prudently spend it as the shortages of rigs, services, equipment, labor gets more acute they could eventually realize that the wealth is created through not producing at maximum but being able to produce when others cannot due to depletion effects IMHO. Right now the price appreciation exceeds the depletion rates of the reserves so why sell your golden goose for cash that is gonna be worth less going forward IMO...

[RonMN]

This would be hoarding on the "high end"...then you could throw in hoarding on the "low end" like people storing large quantities of gasoline in their garage, etc.

Then things will really get interesting!

[lateStarter]

It will really get interesting when nations (Russia for example) begin to adopt the same attitude (if they haven't already)!

[MD]

I suspect most nations would fear reprisal if they blatently attempted to shut in their reserves. Russia would be one obvious exception.

[lateStarter]

I am not talking about blatant. That would bring the risk of confrontation with a nation whose way of life is non-negotiable! I'm talking about subtle - We are having problems with investment in technology; there is a lack of refineries; damn terrorists, etc... Basic foot dragging masked behind political rhetoric.

[MD]

Keep selling just enough to keep the wolves away, and hope you aren't caught up in the conflagration? That might work for some of the smaller producers.

[MicroHydro]

If I owned a North American natural gas well, I'd be hoarding it.

Of note, if I can purchase a suitable rural parcel, I might hoard a big tank of propane. A gallon of propane is 1/2 the cost of a gallon of pre-tax unleaded gas on the NYMEX but has 91% of the energy density. Also propane can lead to longer engine life and can be stored indefinitely.

[lateStarter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', 'I')f I owned a North American natural gas well, I'd be hoarding it.

Of note, if I can purchase a suitable rural parcel, I might hoard a big tank of propane. A gallon of propane is 1/2 the cost of a gallon of pre-tax unleaded gas on the NYMEX but has 91% of the energy density. Also propane can lead to longer engine life and can be stored indefinitely.

[kelee877]

on our news americans just bought our pipe line in canadeier here..and why is ther no Russians in this ite can we not get one and see what they are saying..i,m sure they own computers too...

[Novus]

I am far more fearfull of the future food hoarding. It is difficult to hoard oil and you presonally do not need it to live but you do need food and people can easily hoard it. Something like a nationwide truckers strike could trigger wide spread food hoarding which would empty the supermarkets in a matter of days. The gas lines of the 70s brought out the worst in Americans but things could get ugly real quick when the "unneogotiable lifestyle" is suddenly faced with bread lines. This could be that "WTSHTF" moment that everyone is expecting and the scariest part about it is it could happen tomorrow.

[Eli]

Just to jump in and give credence to the nations hording mentality thing.

I just read an article today where India said that any oil developed in that country would be strictly sold back to India not on the open market.

India significantly under rights oil in there country and that is why the National oil company lost money.

[julianj]

Microhydro,

If I owned a NG well, I'd be cackling madly and stroking a white cat

Then I'd use the profits to set up my 60's decor undersea biome so me and my peak Oil colony could wait out Armageddon safely, possibly while developing gills and flippers.



PS Kelee there are russians on this board, Russian Cowboy for one.

[Pops]

Didn’t Venezuela just make an agreement to sell at a subsidized price to it’s neighbors?

Along the same lines?

[RonMN]

Speaking of food hoarding...what happenes when those of us who have prepared for years are accused of "hoarding" because others simply wouldn't listen or consider preparring for any type of disaster/disruption?

My personal definition of hoarding is to grab all you can when a shortage has occured...whereas prep would be stocking up while supplies are abundant. But i don't think that will matter to hungry/angry people who demand your food!

This is why i consider it to be so important to have a large stockpile of ammo!

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'S')peaking of food hoarding...what happenes when those of us who have prepared for years are accused of "hoarding" because others simply wouldn't listen or consider preparring for any type of disaster/disruption?

[FireJack]

IF you do have lots of food just don't tell anyone. If you really want to prepare for the worst case scenerio (ie starving hoards) go somewhere very isolated and wait until the worst is over.
Of course if the country is taken over by some evil dictatorship that could be a long long time.

[Novus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'S')peaking of food hoarding...what happenes when those of us who have prepared for years are accused of "hoarding" because others simply wouldn't listen or consider preparring for any type of disaster/disruption?

This is why i consider it to be so important to have a large stockpile of ammo!

[kelee877]

I am going to bury mine...I live near a lake with a long shore..small water proof buckets and sealed good..and keep my map in my brain..

[AmericanEmpire]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')oarding will ultimately be a losing game even if you manage to secure a full year of food for yourself and your family. Distribution will Never be restored the way it is now after it is disrupted Post peak. Ammo won't restock store shelves or your pantry in a Post Peak world.

[Novus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AmericanEmpire', '
')
Yeah, if you aren't a self sufficient farmer whose able to provide your own food your screwed. Which means most of us.