[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'D')id you see the story where immediately after leaving Putin Xi called a meeting with the ex-Soviet -stans, and excluded Russia?

This war is great for China, they get low cost gas and are able to expand their influence over the USSR carcass. Xi is eating Russias lunch. He has opened an influence front on Russia East flank and there is jack all Putin can do about it.

No clue how this will play out, but I have to believe Putin’s days are numbered.

I don’t think Xi will have him “removed”, Putin is doing too good a job for Xi, Xi wll want him to stay and weaken Russia even more.

[evilgenius]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'C')arinke,

I did listen to that Hill video. I was not impressed by the arguments or their background knowledge.

Hersh was unable to get ANY reputable outlet to carry his story because it was totally unsubstantiated, based on a single unnamed source. So he released it on substack, self published.

We're this the first time one could perhaps give him some credence. However he has now cultivated a long history of outrageous unsubstantiated claims.

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/02/did ... -problems/

The theory that it was Russia operating out of Kaliningrad has far more credibility because they have a proximate naval base, have developed submersible with the capability, and have a painfully long history of destroying civil infrastructure to threaten populations. Putin also has demonstrated he is willing to sacrifice Russian assets to further his personal ego, dramatically in the form of human sacrifice. If he does not care about human life why should he care about a pipeline? Pipeline can not protest their loss like wives and mothers.

People keep trying to sustain out Putin's logic by applying their personal ruel set, asking "What would I do?" While that is grequently a good method it does not work with exceptional people, and Putin is an exception.

In his case it is best to ask "How has he performed before, what are his tactics, what are his goals."

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')According to David Satter, Yuri Felshtinsky, Alexander Litvinenko, Vladimir Pribylovsky and Boris Kagarlitsky, the bombings were a successful false flag operation coordinated by the Russian state security services to win public support for a new full-scale war in Chechnya and to bring Putin to power.[206][17][18][19][68][207][20][208][209] Some of them described the bombings as typical "active measures" practised by the KGB in the past. The war in Chechnya boosted Prime Minister and former FSB Director Vladimir Putin's popularity, and brought the pro-war Unity Party to the State Duma and Putin to the presidency within a few months.

[Newfie]

I have considered the Lincoln/Grant analogy as well. Maybe some merit.

I’m also thin Putin is trying to draw the war out. He really has no choice. Pulling out would signal what a dumb idea it was, he would likely not survive that. Same end if he is pushed out. He can not outright win. So he keeps on struggling as a war time leader hoping for a negotiated peace that won’t bee too bad.

But honestly, in the broader spectrum, it has already been an unmitigated disaster.

[Newfie]

For snyone still following the Seymor Hersh line of thinking here is a decent current round up, so you don't need to go through the pay wall.

https://brian-whit.medium.com/all-at-se ... 67e17a1728

[Newfie]

A little more from Brian Whitiaker.

Danish ships photographed Russian ships over the pipeline but will not release images.

https://brian-whit.medium.com/photos-sh ... a4524be1a7

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'F')or snyone still following the Seymor Hersh line of thinking here is a decent current round up, so you don't need to go through the pay wall.

https://brian-whit.medium.com/all-at-se ... 67e17a1728

[Newfie]

Plant,

The sailboat story is hokum. Those points you make are valid, there are more reasons to disbelieve it. It MAY have been a communications or support vessel, perhaps as a surface rescue boat but it was NOT the prime mover in this event.

Ever do any diving? Ever try to get into a dive boat in 3’ seas? That sailboat would have been a wack-a-mole hammer to divers. Decompression? Their heads would have been compressed into there hinder parts.

Where the evidence is leading is to a submarine operation. The hounds are on the trail of the Russian sub support vessel with a rather large rescue sub and appropriate apparatus to place explosives, attended by 2 sea going tugs with cranes.

My theory, not gaining traction, is it could have been a larger sub towing a detachable explosive package for placement.

The Danes, Swedes, and US were all over this operation as it occurred. They may not have known exactly what was going on but they obviously were aware of the activity. The Danes have no admitted one of the vessels took 112 photos of the Russian vessels, but will jot release the photos citing security reasons.

Some Danish news agency is, right now, airing a 3 hour expose on Russian activities. Hopefully that will expose some further info. I don’t have access so I need to await others to sit through it and report. What I heard from hour 1 was 34km of some cable has gone missing and the Russian “research” vessel has an armed contingent to shoo away small boats.

[Plantagenet]

Thanks, NEWFIE.

That makes a lot of sense.



cheers!

[Newfie]

A roughly similar incident.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Ru ... rgy_crisis

More detail here.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4638566.stm

[Newfie]

Some new info on the Nord Stream incident.

https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/dan ... ms-russian

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'S')ome new info on the Nord Stream incident.

https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/dan ... ms-russian

[Newfie]

One thing fascinating is to watch how new is dispersed by geographic region. It is pretty clear when looking at the new story (linked above) about the Russian submarine support ship with a rescue sub being at the blast site 4 days prior to the blast. The Danes took pictures if it.

The news is slowly being distributed by European sources, mostly British, if my Google search is any guide. But then perhaps my internet connection is influencing the results. I am physically in Guadeloupe, which identifies as France, but am using a VPN server in the USA.

But secondly, shortly after the blast CNN noted that Russian submarine support vessel (or sub?) was seen at the blast site in the previous week, but then repudiated the source as unreliable.

To my ear the news is being highly manipulated, but by whom and for what purpose is not clear.

I do believe that this new news is credible and based on open source evidence and will hold up.

[jato0072]

Nuland threatens Nordstream 2 - Facebook video - 20 seconds

Biden says he will end Nordstream - youtube - 30 seconds



Really people!?! So the Biden administration threatens to end Nordstream. Then, after it is destroyed, the Biden Administration approves of the so called "Russian" attack on Nordstream?

Nuland (& the Biden Administration) is "very gratified" that Nord Stream 2 is "a hunk of metal at the bottom of the sea" - youtube, 8 seconds

[Newfie]

Jato

You and I interpret those statements very differently. I was hoping you had some more concrete evidence of the attack.

What I was pointing to was evidence of a Russian submarine rescue boat with a smaller sub and 2 maneuvering tugs on the explosion site 4 days before the explosions.

[evilgenius]

I was thinking about what I said above, about how if I was in charge of keeping watch at the Pentagon I would suspect the Russians were up to something. Well, along those lines, I was just reading a story about how Russian jets are giving US jets more grief over Syria.

Then, it occurred to me, the US doesn't have enough F-22's. The F-22 is the best dog fighter in the world. Dog fighting is what you will get, if you have to obey rules of engagement up until the very point where your enemy reveals their antagonistic intentions. The encounters in Syria all ended with the US planes strictly obeying their rules of engagement. That would mean that the Russians would get the first shot, up close. That almost guarantees the sort of proximity that negates the advantage gained by advanced radar and long range missiles. It might mean needing maneuverability.

If the Russian move into Ukraine aligns with a Chinese move upon Taiwan, the Russians only need to place their advanced fighters into a particular region that they have tested with encounters. They test various places like this all of the time. We know from the news that the US does have F-22's based in Alaska, for instance.

The Russians are always flying Bearcat bombers over the region, to provoke a US response. If those F-22's were to stop coming out to meet them because they were stationed in Europe in preparation for what the Russians might do when the Chinese go, then that corridor might be where the Russians decide to use their more advanced fighters. There is so much to watch out for.

This is why the Air Force wanted the number of fighters they asked for. Deliberate ignorance of this is why politicians canceled the program when they did. The F-16 is probably pretty good at acting fast too, but not against fighters that can do things it can't, I suppose?

You gotta wonder. This is a weird time. Something like the timing of Ukraine and Taiwan aligning could just be a coincidence. The Chinese could just be making noise, in order to bring out the patriot in their own population.

The thing is, if there is a legitimate opportunity would the Russians simply use it? There probably are enough F-22's, in other words, but the logistics of getting them around, and divvying out how many are here or there, mean that it could go wrong somewhere if nobody is paying particular attention.

The Russians could use the possible defeat of an under staffed region to force the US to quit in other places. Or to take reserves that are needed elsewhere. The idea being that they wouldn't be trying to conquer Europe, but to gain concessions before retreating back into Russia. They'd be looking to see if they can force an unequal confrontation somewhere that can get that for them. The concessions might include something like a monopolization of natural gas sales to Europe for the foreseeable future, keeping Ukraine, whose deposits the Russians wanted, out of the picture. You know, let them have Crimea, it looks like the Russians may be preparing for a battle over the place, as long as there has been a political agreement instituted that gives them the same result as if they had kept it.

[jato0072]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'Y')ou and I interpret those statements very differently.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato0072', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'Y')ou and I interpret those statements very differently.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato0072', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'Y')ou and I interpret those statements very differently.

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato0072', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'Y')ou and I interpret those statements very differently.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')Who benefited from the pipeline explosions? The Russians or the Americans?
Peace