[baldwincng]

An article in today's FT (page 9) "Big Oil warns of coming energy crunch"
By Carola Hoyos in London" says:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')nternational oil companies have begun advertising campaigns warning that the world is running out of oil and calling on the public to help the industry do something about it.

The world's five largest energy groups generally maintain that oil projects are viable with the price at $20-$25 a barrel. But their advertising and some of their own statistics appear to tell a different story.

[Quicksilver]

World natural gas production will probably peak at around 150 tcf . It is not as abundant as we all think. Production will peak within 10 years of oil peaking.

[clv101]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quicksilver', 'W')orld natural gas production will probably peak at around 150 tcf . It is not as abundant as we all think. Production will peak within 10 years of oil peaking.

[Quicksilver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clv101', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quicksilver', 'W')orld natural gas production will probably peak at around 150 tcf . It is not as abundant as we all think. Production will peak within 10 years of oil peaking.

[gg3]

Ten years is enough time to build a nuke, and we have six on the drawing boards going through permitting right now. If all of those get built, assuming an average 800 MW each, that's 4.8 GW.

It's also double the time needed to build a windfarm and at present the big ones appear to be stalled by NIMBYs. I don't recall the stats for those at the moment because there isn't a "standard size" but assume another 500 - 600 MW total.

Someone needs to go to the houses of those NIMBYs and pull their main circuit breakers just to give 'em a taste of life w/o non-fossil fuels.

So now we have about 5-1/2 GW lined up. How much natural gas can that replace? That is, how many years of post-peak-gas doe it buy us?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') nuclear power plant hasn't been built in the United States in two decades, but that could change in the next few years after a consortium announced locations in six states as possible sites for a nuclear renaissance.

Nuclear power consortium NuStart Energy on Thursday named the sites from which it will later pick two for which to apply for licenses to build and operate nuclear power plants.

[Cynus]

Of course nukes and windmills won't power the auto and air fleet, unless we switch to electric cars. Do you have any idea how much electricity it would require to power the entire US auto fleet with electricity? I don't, but I know it's a lot. More than 4 new nuke plants and windmills will be able to cover. While we're building those nuke plants we need to be getting into rail bigtime. We might be able to power electric trains.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'T')en years is enough time to build a nuke, and we have six on the drawing boards going through permitting right now. If all of those get built, assuming an average 800 MW each, that's 4.8 GW.

[aflatoxin]

A GE Frame 7 FA combined cycle power plant produces about 290 Mw using inlet air cooling and duct burners. It burns about 2000 kscfh of natural gas fuel.

Two of these make about 600 Mw (rounding off) burn 4000 kscfh, or about 4000 MMBTU/hr. So a 6 Gw Nuke plant would replace 40,000 MMBTU of natural gas, per hour

Of course, getting the gas from the hole to plant also uses gas, so there would be additional savings there too.

[Eli]

Lng is not going to be able to keep up with the current decline of NG in North America.

We are in decline as far as a natural gas production goes and so is the North sea and Britain. Mexico is a net NG importer now.

Nuclear and everything else is going to be needed to offset the current decline. The human race is going to have to through everything including the kitchen sink at the problem of declining energy of all kinds.

Environmental concerns are going to largely vanish like a fart in the wind if there is a serious heating oil shortage in the North East combine that with a NG decline and you have the makings of a crisis that will destroy lives and the whole economy.

We could easily be fighting to stay warm. People are going to install wood burners mark my word. It is going to get very bad very quickly.Gas decline

[0mar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'T')en years is enough time to build a nuke, and we have six on the drawing boards going through permitting right now. If all of those get built, assuming an average 800 MW each, that's 4.8 GW.

It's also double the time needed to build a windfarm and at present the big ones appear to be stalled by NIMBYs. I don't recall the stats for those at the moment because there isn't a "standard size" but assume another 500 - 600 MW total.

Someone needs to go to the houses of those NIMBYs and pull their main circuit breakers just to give 'em a taste of life w/o non-fossil fuels.

So now we have about 5-1/2 GW lined up. How much natural gas can that replace? That is, how many years of post-peak-gas doe it buy us?

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('baldwincng', '
')
Simulation shows US held over a barrel by oil supply interruption

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')errorists yesterday struck oil facilities in the US and Saudi Arabia, pushing oil prices to a record $120 a barrel and doubling to $5,214 the expected annual petrol bill for the average US household. Economists warned of the imminent collapse of the US's economic recovery and a loss of more than 2m jobs, the largest drop since 1945.

While none of this is true, the scenario is thoroughly plausible, according to high-ranking former government, military and intelligence officials who made up the US cabinet in a simulation exercise that is gaining increasing attention from members of Congress, the White House and oil executives

[Novus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cynus', 'O')f course nukes and windmills won't power the auto and air fleet, unless we switch to electric cars. Do you have any idea how much electricity it would require to power the entire US auto fleet with electricity? I don't, but I know it's a lot. More than 4 new nuke plants and windmills will be able to cover. While we're building those nuke plants we need to be getting into rail bigtime. We might be able to power electric trains.

[ubercrap]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cynus', 'O')f course nukes and windmills won't power the auto and air fleet, unless we switch to electric cars. Do you have any idea how much electricity it would require to power the entire US auto fleet with electricity? I don't, but I know it's a lot. More than 4 new nuke plants and windmills will be able to cover. While we're building those nuke plants we need to be getting into rail bigtime. We might be able to power electric trains.

[jdmartin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ubercrap', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cynus', 'O')f course nukes and windmills won't power the auto and air fleet, unless we switch to electric cars. Do you have any idea how much electricity it would require to power the entire US auto fleet with electricity? I don't, but I know it's a lot. More than 4 new nuke plants and windmills will be able to cover. While we're building those nuke plants we need to be getting into rail bigtime. We might be able to power electric trains.

[SHiFTY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f there was a train that went past my job I would love to ride it. How nice it woud be to spend my commute reading a book or taking a nap.

[pilferage]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')Nukes are unsustainable...

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pilferage', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')Nukes are unsustainable...

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ukes are unsustainable

[pilferage]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'H')ere's a discussion of why nukes are unsustainable:

http://www.greatchange.org/bb-thermoche ... y_rev.html