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How well do banks do in an economic crisis?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

How well do banks do in an economic crisis?

Postby Doly » Thu 04 Aug 2005, 11:04:25

We are all expecting a huge economic crisis in the near future. What I'm wondering at this point is: how well do banks do during recession/depression as a company? In other words, is it wise to work for a bank in these times? I'm asking out of self-interest, because there are good chances I will work for a bank soon.
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Postby brobak » Thu 04 Aug 2005, 11:08:52

I work for a bank. We're pretty narrowly focused at the Cooperative market, and I'm in IT, not a "banker" per se, but I can offer you my experiences.

Basically, it seems we can make money no matter how the economy goes. In times that we are doing well economically as a country, interest rates tend to increase to prevent inflation. This lets us make larger margins on the money we lend. Our cost of funds vs. the prime rate tends to widen, and therefore, we make more.

In the opposite scenario, where interest rates drop to stimulate the market, we get tons of refinancing fee's, and tons of people borrowing because of the favorable rates. So what we lose in margin, we make up in volume. We also get people borrowing to keep their businesses afloat and make it through the "hard time".

Obviously, this doesn't extend to a "total collapse" of society, but so far, the place where I work tends to make money despite itself.
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Postby FatherOfTwo » Thu 04 Aug 2005, 13:40:36

Throughout history, in general, the big money handlers always do well. I might avoid small banks who could be more easily wiped out, and I would definitely avoid financial institutions that are playing hard in the high risk mortgage arena, but big banks - I don't see a problem.
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