[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', 'W')hy should the Saudis increase production? They are finally making a killing and the Dems will keep the US drillers from ramping up production much with higher taxes, permit fees, regulatory delays, etc. If there is a major recession then oil prices will decline- they probably see this coming and want to get what money they can while it lasts.

[Plantagenet]

The second coming of $100/bbl oil inevitably brings the question of peak oil back around again, and Dr. Guy McPherson.....the Doomer to end all Doomers.....has just released a new video saying that peak oil is back.

peak-oil-has-not-gone-away

I was surprised during the last cycle of $100/bbl oil when Obama took Sarah Palin's advice and suddenly "drill baby drill" became US national energy policy. And I was even more surprised when it worked....the US actually hugely increased its oil production and even briefly become energy independent. Obama even bragged during one of his state of the union addresses that the US now had a 100-year-long natural gas supply thanks to fracking.

But somehow after only 16 months of incompetence and mismanagement by the Biden presidency thats all gone.

Its bad enough Biden bungled the Afghan withdrawal, but then he bungled US border policy and he bungled the covid response and Biden bungled US energy policy and then he bungled deterring Putin from invading Ukraine. AND that last Biden bungle did it----Biden's big bungle has now totally bungled up everything.

Suddenly we've got $100+/bbl oil again, and we've got $5/gallon gasoline again, and the world is talking about oil supply and natural gas supply shortfalls. Suddenly the US isn't energy independent anymore and Biden just announced he is going to Saudi to beg his good buddy Prince Muahammad to pump more oil.

Suddenly the booming US economy is headed for recession.

Suddenly trillions of dollars of wealth in the crypto market and the stock market has vanished.

Suddenly even real estate prices are starting to fall.

And suddenly, even though energy prices started going up a year ago, OPEC oil production has been going DOWN for the last few months.

Suddenly.....suddenly......Guy McPherson is saying PeakOil is back.

Personally, I don't want peak oil to be back.

Personally, I was pretty happy with a booming world economy.


.....but suddenly everything changed.......all it took was one Biden bungle after another Biden bungle and suddenly everything is going to hell.

Cheers!

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')he second coming of $100/bbl oil inevitably brings the question of peak oil back around again, and Dr. Guy McPherson.....the Doomer to end all Doomers.....has just released a new video saying that peak oil is back.

[Plantagenet]

Oil demand is predicted to exceed oil supply next year.....and growth in supply will fall fall farther behind the increase in demand.

oil-supply-growth-expected-to-lag-behind-demand-next-year

In theory, increased oil prices should bring more oil to market.

But so far that isn't happening.

The result......the second coming of $100/bbl oil.

If the increase in supply isn't coming this year.....and according to the WSJ it isn't coming next year....then when will the increase in oil supply start to bring down oil prices?

Will oil prices come down in 2024? 2025?

And where will the new oil supply come from to drive down oil prices?

Or perhaps oil prices will come down not as a result of higher oil production.....but when global oil demand collapses as the world goes into recession?

I'm curious to see how this all plays out.....especially because President Biden is clearly senile and his rudderless administration is floundering and seems utterly incapable of solving any of the crises that have hit the US during his brief time in Office......


Biden's always had a gaffe problem.....but now he's senile in addition to being stupid, and its hard to tell the gaffes from the stupidity from the senility.

Cheers!

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f the increase in supply isn't coming this year.....and according to the WSJ it isn't coming next year....then when will the increase in oil supply start to bring down oil prices?

Will oil prices come down in 2024? 2025?

And where will the new oil supply come from to drive down oil prices?

Or perhaps oil prices will come down not as a result of higher oil production.....but when global oil demand collapses as the world goes into recession?

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')Adam's constantly whining about: How do you know this one is THE peak oil? But that's the wrong question. That's like asking: How do you know this is THE heart attack that may kill you? You don't know, but you call an ambulance regardless, just in case.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')Adam's constantly whining about: How do you know this one is THE peak oil? But that's the wrong question.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')Adam's constantly whining about: How do you know this one is THE peak oil? But that's the wrong question. That's like asking: How do you know this is THE heart attack that may kill you? You don't know, but you call an ambulance regardless, just in case.

[vtsnowedin]

An interesting piece of news.
Exxon is in negotiations to sell it's one third interest in an oil field in Iraq. The field is estimated to hold 20 billion barrels of oil so their share might be around 7 billion barrels. (the Chinese have one of the other thirds). Exxon's asking price is just 350 million dollars. It is a bit of a forced sale as Iraq wants it for it's oil company so won't approve a sale to anyone but them. At that price it amounts to just five cents a barrel???? Seems stupid on it's face and I have no idea about how much Exxon has invested in the project so perhaps this lets them come out even.
I wonder what the rest of the story is.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 021-05-10/

[PeakOilFanatic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'A')n interesting piece of news.
Exxon is in negotiations to sell it's one third interest in an oil field in Iraq. The field is estimated to hold 20 billion barrels of oil so their share might be around 7 billion barrels. (the Chinese have one of the other thirds). Exxon's asking price is just 350 million dollars. It is a bit of a forced sale as Iraq wants it for it's oil company so won't approve a sale to anyone but them. At that price it amounts to just five cents a barrel???? Seems stupid on it's face and I have no idea about how much Exxon has invested in the project so perhaps this lets them come out even.
I wonder what the rest of the story is.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 021-05-10/

[PeakOilFanatic]

Why can't you incompetents admit North Ghawar is doing a SENECA CLIFF?

The collapse has been going on in earnest since 2019. The global human enterprise was actually effectively stopped by 2015 by a Seneca Cliff Event (look at 2015 on first chart), around 7 years into the peak oil plateau. We are now in global energy decline rates (petroleum) of around 8% per annum. You are all going to DIE in THE OIL APOCALYPSE I predicted in 2013. Look at 2024 in the first graph.

*****AMERICA WILL BE GONE BY 2024***** according to the Ghawar chart below and Texas Permian Shale seneca cliffing.

https://aktiertips.se/northern-ghawar-w ... /#more-214
https://aktiertips.se/saudiarabien-ghaw ... ld-you-so/

[PeakOilFanatic]

Where is the passion for KING DIESEL?

A full scale CTL plant, say 150 kbpd diesel, would cost around 20 billion dollars and be a giant global, multiyear project (probably the biggest global project around while it is built.) I doubt if there are resources available, whether human or equipment supply, to support more than two such projects at any time at the moment and the capacity that exists is gradually falling. If the global industrial society collapses as it seems to be going I think mega projects like this will prove increasingly difficult to execute and, even if completed, to maintain.

[C8]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'A')n interesting piece of news.
Exxon is in negotiations to sell it's one third interest in an oil field in Iraq. The field is estimated to hold 20 billion barrels of oil so their share might be around 7 billion barrels. (the Chinese have one of the other thirds). Exxon's asking price is just 350 million dollars. It is a bit of a forced sale as Iraq wants it for it's oil company so won't approve a sale to anyone but them. At that price it amounts to just five cents a barrel???? Seems stupid on it's face and I have no idea about how much Exxon has invested in the project so perhaps this lets them come out even.
I wonder what the rest of the story is.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 021-05-10/

[PeakOilFanatic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'A')n interesting piece of news.
Exxon is in negotiations to sell it's one third interest in an oil field in Iraq. The field is estimated to hold 20 billion barrels of oil so their share might be around 7 billion barrels. (the Chinese have one of the other thirds). Exxon's asking price is just 350 million dollars. It is a bit of a forced sale as Iraq wants it for it's oil company so won't approve a sale to anyone but them. At that price it amounts to just five cents a barrel???? Seems stupid on it's face and I have no idea about how much Exxon has invested in the project so perhaps this lets them come out even.
I wonder what the rest of the story is.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 021-05-10/

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOilFanatic', 'W')here is the passion for KING DIESEL?

A full scale CTL plant, say 150 kbpd diesel, would cost around 20 billion dollars and be a giant global, multiyear project (probably the biggest global project around while it is built.) I doubt if there are resources available, whether human or equipment supply, to support more than two such projects at any time at the moment and the capacity that exists is gradually falling. If the global industrial society collapses as it seems to be going I think mega projects like this will prove increasingly difficult to execute and, even if completed, to maintain.

[Plantagenet]

Joe Biden is bashing US oil producers for not boosting oil production in spite of the fact that US oil producers are boosting production

us-drillers-add-oil-gas-rigs-second-week-row-baker-hughes-

THE Drill Rig count is up in the US and US oil production is back up near pre-pandemic levels.....but thats not enough to bring down oil prices.

We're going to need oil prices to go even higher to create a large amount of demand destruction. Thats the only way to bring the oil market back into equilibrium and finally bring oil prices back down.


Raise gas prices far enough and you destroy demand and then prices will come down. Its so easy even Joe Biden should be able to understand it!!!!!

Cheers!

[vtsnowedin]

I have not checked today but if you look at EIAs rig count history chart you can see the numbers track oil price s more than anything. Back when oil got down into the $30's/B the count was down to about 250 and last I looked it was up to 650 or so.
But it is going to take more then drilling on existing leases to offset the loss of Russian oil and gas which was going gangbusters when oil was in the 30s.
A 100% interest free loan to build a new refinery with 100% of the needed permits attached day one, with a thirty year guarantee of utilization might be a start. Otherwise the oil companies will just sit and wait for Biden to get swept out of office.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOilFanatic', '
')Ukraine war: Russia becomes China’s biggest oil supplier
Imports of Russian oil rose by 55% from a year earlier to a record level in May, displacing Saudi Arabia as China’s biggest provider.
China has ramped up purchases of Russian oil ....

[PeakOilFanatic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOilFanatic', '
')Ukraine war: Russia becomes China’s biggest oil supplier
Imports of Russian oil rose by 55% from a year earlier to a record level in May, displacing Saudi Arabia as China’s biggest provider.
China has ramped up purchases of Russian oil ....

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') A 100% interest free loan to build a new refinery with 100% of the needed permits attached day one, with a thirty year guarantee of utilization might be a start. Otherwise the oil companies will just sit and wait for Biden to get swept out of office.