[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'A')nd what if we are nearing peak oil for real this time? Then it would explain a lot the behavior of China, Russia and Iran. What if we are seeing the final grab for power over the last remaining energy resources?

[evilgenius]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'A')nd what if we are nearing peak oil for real this time? Then it would explain a lot the behavior of China, Russia and Iran. What if we are seeing the final grab for power over the last remaining energy resources?

[theluckycountry]

It's interesting going back over some of the predictions in this thread, many, like the thread starter by pops was half accurate but the NEW WAR in the Ukraine threw it off balance, as the price of oil rose above the $100 mark. I couldn't have predicted to war, no one could have, but I could have predicted the rise in oil price. The pandemic response and the war response have a single common thread as I see it, to reduce the consumption of oil globally.

Why people believe these responses are what the media portrays them as is strange to me. We all know oil is the key to our civilization, and that's it will will gone for all practical purposes in a few decades, for us little people that is to say. Why it is such a stretch to believe that global governments would have enacted a drastic plan to reduce it's consumption? I'm certainly not suggesting that the virus or the war were engineered for this purpose but I am suggesting that they are being used for it.

Germany is doing fine today, it's right there by the war zone but they are not in blackout and their service stations are not empty. Up here in Australia we are suffering the same price hikes for our energy as they are yet none of our imports come from anywhere near the warzone. In one sense it should not be effecting us but we are being dragged into it with higher petrol prices (because of evil putin) I don't by it at all, it's a racket and the end result is lower oil consumption again.

I'll make a prediction for the future, whenever this war resolves, or scales back into obscurity, it will be followed by Another crises, and then another crises, and each time fuel consumption will be targeted, each time the peoples of the Western World will see their standard of living decline, whether that is in shortages of stuff, or simply their inability to afford what they used to.

[JuanP]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'I') also think the Supreme Court will overturn Row vs. Wade. But I think that will become a major catalyst for change.

[JuanP]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JuanP', 'M')on 20 Dec 2021
I expect the Republicans to win majorities in Congress in the 2022 elections.

I expect a total of around 1 million Americans to have died of COVID-19 by the end of 2022. I would really welcome being wrong on this guess.

[Newfie]

About predictions.

Danny Kahanaman (sp?), the psychologist awarded the Nobel in Economics for proving its all done in a big US assumption, has research that says, in general pundits or experts are a little worse at predictions than the average person.

The WEF, the Davis crowd, has prepared an annual World Risk Assessment for the past 17 years. this is the collective work of over a thousand of the best and brightest feo around the world. Wgike I am n jt a big fan of the WEF I believe this report is an honest effort to gage risk.

They completely missed the biological threat from Covid in the 2020 report and the European land war in the 2022 report.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'A')bout predictions., has research that says, in general pundits or experts are a little worse at predictions than the average person.

.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
') They completely missed the biological threat from Covid in the 2020 report and the European land war in the 2022 report.

[vtsnowedin]

Actually the death of some six million in a world population of seven billion amounted to no more then a major out break of toe nail fungus.
What really cost us a lot was the collective world governments panicked response to it which has shut down economies and impoverished millions.
You have three or four old people dead a couple of years early versus two dozen out of work and their lives destroyed because "their business" was not deemed essential while the big box corporations lost not a day of business.
You want a bold prediction?
This debacle will haunt those that were in charge for decades.

[JuanP]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'A')ctually the death of some six million in a world population of seven billion amounted to no more then a major out break of toe nail fungus.
What really cost us a lot was the collective world governments panicked response to it which has shut down economies and impoverished millions.
You have three or four old people dead a couple of years early versus two dozen out of work and their lives destroyed because "their business" was not deemed essential while the big box corporations lost not a day of business.
You want a bold prediction?
This debacle will haunt those that were in charge for decades.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
') They completely missed the biological threat from Covid in the 2020 report and the European land war in the 2022 report.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JuanP', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'A')ctually the death of some six million in a world population of seven billion amounted to no more then a major out break of toe nail fungus.
What really cost us a lot was the collective world governments panicked response to it which has shut down economies and impoverished millions.
You have three or four old people dead a couple of years early versus two dozen out of work and their lives destroyed because "their business" was not deemed essential while the big box corporations lost not a day of business.
You want a bold prediction?
This debacle will haunt those that were in charge for decades.

[C8]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'A')ctually the death of some six million in a world population of seven billion amounted to no more then a major out break of toe nail fungus.
What really cost us a lot was the collective world governments panicked response to it which has shut down economies and impoverished millions.
You have three or four old people dead a couple of years early versus two dozen out of work and their lives destroyed because "their business" was not deemed essential while the big box corporations lost not a day of business.
You want a bold prediction?
This debacle will haunt those that were in charge for decades.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', '
')Education has no effect at all on human nature- none at all. In fact, less educated societies handled the Covid problem better and panicked less. Education is religious indoctrination into the cult of "rational man". The school and university are the new churches. Its all make believe.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', '
')Education has no effect at all on human nature- none at all. In fact, less educated societies handled the Covid problem better and panicked less. Education is religious indoctrination into the cult of "rational man". The school and university are the new churches. Its all make believe.

[C8]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', '
')Education has no effect at all on human nature- none at all. In fact, less educated societies handled the Covid problem better and panicked less. Education is religious indoctrination into the cult of "rational man". The school and university are the new churches. Its all make believe.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', '
')Secondly, a highly educated society produces a population that comes to expect answers from small group of experts. This stifles the ability of people to think for themselves or to conduct their own research. People discount the real world in favor of what they see on the media.

[C8]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', '
')Secondly, a highly educated society produces a population that comes to expect answers from small group of experts. This stifles the ability of people to think for themselves or to conduct their own research. People discount the real world in favor of what they see on the media.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', '
')Education has no effect at all on human nature- none at all. In fact, less educated societies handled the Covid problem better and panicked less. Education is religious indoctrination into the cult of "rational man". The school and university are the new churches. Its all make believe.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Teaching objectivity is quite difficult, sometimes impossible, and a prerequisite of "educating" on most topics, including doing honest research. I do agree that some of the conditions you describe are hardly condusive to folks thinking for themselves, let alone making them capable of "research".