$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eclipse', '
')There are claims about a new storage system called THERMO photovoltaic cells. They could end up as cheap as $10 / khw for storage. It could take 5 to 10 years to roll out at a commercial level, but the costing papers seem available. What do you all think?
PeakOil is You
A Critical Discussion the Limits to Renewable Energy Pt 3
Re: A Critical Discussion the Limits to Renewable Energy Pt
by AdamB » Wed 18 May 2022, 08:48:50
I think that the doomers looking for the end of the world won't ever admit that the technologies that don't require sucking oil down by the millions of barrels a day are already out and about, some folks have begun using them, and the only question is whether or not the shape of the S-curve of market disruption happens sooner or later.
Tony Seba has already covered this awhile ago, and while a bit enthusiastic, he has a better argument for his position than any peak oil doomer that has published to date. I don't normally recommend BoobTube videos, but Tony doing his presentation isn't your standard unreferenced, uneducated, designed for entertaining the stupid type stuff.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: A Critical Discussion the Limits to Renewable Energy Pt
by vtsnowedin » Wed 18 May 2022, 09:10:53
I'm fine with them building out renewable energy systems and compatible storage systems of any type to render the energy dispatchable to meet 95% of demand as long as they build it out first and have it working smoothly on line BEFORE they shut off the thermal plant it will replace. I also think not only will used EV batteries be a cheap source of storage capacity but millions of EVs plugged in at any one time will give smart grids the ability to both give and take power from them as the grid needs it or has it to give.
What we have today on the other hand is a war declared on fossil fuels with major attacks on supply long before the EV cars are on the road in sufficient numbers to replace fossil fuel demand or much of any renewable power production in place compared to total energy needs and a ridiculously low amount of storage.
It is as dumb as a country declaring Nuclear war on another country when it has at present no nuclear weapons. Before we can get to a smart grid we need to find some smart leaders.
What we have today on the other hand is a war declared on fossil fuels with major attacks on supply long before the EV cars are on the road in sufficient numbers to replace fossil fuel demand or much of any renewable power production in place compared to total energy needs and a ridiculously low amount of storage.
It is as dumb as a country declaring Nuclear war on another country when it has at present no nuclear weapons. Before we can get to a smart grid we need to find some smart leaders.
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Re: A Critical Discussion the Limits to Renewable Energy Pt
by Doly » Wed 18 May 2022, 14:45:59
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think that the doomers looking for the end of the world won't ever admit that the technologies that don't require sucking oil down by the millions of barrels a day are already out and about, some folks have begun using them, and the only question is whether or not the shape of the S-curve of market disruption happens sooner or later.
Of course electric cars are out and about. But the question then becomes: where is the electricity going to come from? Sure, enthusiastic people keep going on about how easy and possible is the energy transition away from fossil fuels. But it keeps not happening very fast, so it isn't that easy. I did some work on trying to model the energy transition, and it was pretty clear that there was never any guarantee of it working out. The problem was, in a business-as-usual scenario, the way that energy transitions appear to have happened so far, it didn't look likely to happen. And we haven't seen the sort of dramatic policy decisions that would indicate that we aren't going for a business-as-usual scenario.
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Re: A Critical Discussion the Limits to Renewable Energy Pt
by AdamB » Wed 18 May 2022, 15:14:56
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think that the doomers looking for the end of the world won't ever admit that the technologies that don't require sucking oil down by the millions of barrels a day are already out and about, some folks have begun using them, and the only question is whether or not the shape of the S-curve of market disruption happens sooner or later.
Of course electric cars are out and about. But the question then becomes: where is the electricity going to come from?
Mine comes from the local utility and the panels on the roof of the garage. Last time I calculated it when Plant asked a stupid question they didn't think I could answer, it was a majority and then some from renewables? Coal and natural gas being the two fossil fuels hanging in there, but in a minority. I've been thinking about boosting my panel coverage, if memory serves I thought that would push me over the 75% mark for renewables for the house and cars, but I've been too lazy, and the price of electricity isn't that expensive, and the wife fills up the EV at work, and those electrons then last for a day or three of normal suburban running around.
I recommend building nukes. Soon.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')Sure, enthusiastic people keep going on about how easy and possible is the energy transition away from fossil fuels. But it keeps not happening very fast, so it isn't that easy.
Yes, well, how many models have you built with S-curves when it comes to market penetration, and what did that level of disruption look like? Lets see...slow at first...and then all of a sudden like?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')I did some work on trying to model the energy transition, and it was pretty clear that there was never any guarantee of it working out.
Model it out...how? Folks tried to model just small pieces, like the demise of oil production, and look how that went for folks who couldn't be bothered to learn the subject matter first. And that was just OIL. What economic logic might you have used when just modeling out the transition from fossil fuels to renewables and nukes under differing legislation scenarios around the world? That one alone must just be awful to code out.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
') The problem was, in a business-as-usual scenario, the way that energy transitions appear to have happened so far, it didn't look likely to happen.
And how do you code in "business as usual", other than having a "humanity is stupid" function you created? How did you handle the economic competition between resources, in order that scarcity might work itself out honestly and arrive at renewables and nukes and whatnot as the final winner?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')And we haven't seen the sort of dramatic policy decisions that would indicate that we aren't going for a business-as-usual scenario.
