by eclipse » Wed 18 May 2022, 01:23:15
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'T')here is really nothing to add to the limits to growth, it was thrashed out perfectly in the 1970's and that work is right on track. Anyone still looking for a solution to the collapse of industrial civilization needs to go start a veggie garden in their back yard, or otherwise find something useful to do with their spare time.
Even the great MK Hubbert predicted the future would be nuclear for thousands of years. I hated nuclear power for the first 40 years of my life, had my peak oil awareness moment in my 30's and it took a number of years - but eventually Dr James Hansen and others talking about breeder reactors changed my mind. Breeders eat nuclear 'waste' from traditional reactors and get 90 times the energy out of it. The final waste streams are fission products. Some of these are useful, others can be vitrified into ceramic bricks and buried for just 300 years and are safe. Punchline? The USA already has enough nuclear 'waste' to run her for 1000 years!
But that could be a whole bunch longer if renewables can do say the first 80% of the grid, with nuclear mopping up the last 20%. The grid itself is going to demand so much more power as we wean off oil and onto EV's and synthetic fuels of various kinds. But how much of that will just charge cars at home and work as they just sit there? If Robot-EV's arrive, how many people are going to even buy their own cars - and how many will just see them as Robot-ubers without the salary costs? (Some think this might get the cost down to 10% of what we pay today!) Why would you buy a car ever again?
AND - that's not even including the whole conversation around New Urbanism and walkability. My children and their friends all value the online work around walkable cities. Is that because they're freaked out about peak oil? Not at all! They value quiet, cute cities instead of bland, ugly suburbia. Their cousins have travelled overseas and shown them videos about other cities - and there's a whole thing about walkability with young people today. In Europe car brands do not even register in young people's top 20 favourite products! They're just not that interested.
As others have commented on the Demographic Transition, I will just say I see the world population stabilising around 2050 and by then all sorts of recycling and renewables and nuclear technologies will have kicked in. There is much more to say, but that will do for now.
Finally - anyone else that has got this far - how cheap do you think storage has to get to do 100% renewables and not have that last 20% nuclear - especially as we consider how solar PV is now about 1/4 the cost of natural gas?
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/