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Have we hit the peak?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 18 Jan 2022, 12:55:44

“Fight climate change” is another way to tell us we need to start using less oil because we are in decline
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 18 Jan 2022, 14:43:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')Fight climate change” is another way to tell us we need to start using less oil because we are in decline


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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 18 Jan 2022, 17:29:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')Fight climate change” is another way to tell us we need to start using less oil because we are in decline


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The pixie dust shale oil won’t save you this time. It’s falling off a cliff
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Pops » Tue 18 Jan 2022, 17:50:10

Shale isn't falling off a cliff but most areas are pretty flat to down except the Permian.
Russia too isn't making their quotas at the moment.
IEA still thinks the surplus is around the corner
the EIA says maybe by the end of the year
Still the deficit is not yet over
oil is $85+ highest since 2014
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Pops » Tue 18 Jan 2022, 18:20:24

Isn't data something like a fact?
you posted forecasts, annual average for 2023 isn't a fact and isn't data.
The eia will be revising 2021 production for months, hasn't even guessed at november yet.

Forecasts are all well and good but ad homs like fool and idiot to discribe someone who doesn't use "data" doesn't really jibe with you posting forecasts.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 19 Jan 2022, 23:56:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I')sn't data something like a fact?
you posted forecasts, annual average for 2023 isn't a fact and isn't data.


One way of thinking about it. Another is that it is a fact that experts, with proprietary information, historical information, using a documented econometric and production system and with the credibility that comes with being the only known organization with a peak oil claim made during the early 2000's that hasn't been made a joke by reality, spun forth as good an estimate as they could. As there are no facts in the future, we cannot declare the estimate itself a fact, but we can say that it is a fact real live experts showed that there is no falling off a cliff going on today, or expected to happen by these experts in the near future.

Armie said...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The pixie dust shale oil won’t save you this time. It’s falling off a cliff


He did use the present tense. Not that he knows that, or that the chart shows the present as well as the future. Hims knot bee so 'mart dats weigh. Da tinkin and alls.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 22 Jan 2022, 10:14:14

Bickering removed, please stay on topic. With the handful of posters still here and the fact that almost all of them have been here for years there really is no excuse for this childish behavior.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 22 Jan 2022, 13:45:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'B')ickering removed, please stay on topic. With the handful of posters still here and the fact that almost all of them have been here for years there really is no excuse for this childish behavior.


Gosh darn it Tanada, you gotta admit that it was some pretty good childish bickering, and I did my best to be the adult by just being straight up witty. :)
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Doly » Sat 22 Jan 2022, 15:08:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s there are no facts in the future, we cannot declare the estimate itself a fact, but we can say that it is a fact real live experts showed that there is no falling off a cliff going on today, or expected to happen by these experts in the near future.


Sure. And that's an argument that has been made in this site lots of times, and with the few posters left here, it's fair to assume we are all aware of it.

I'll repeat the typical counter-argument: there are other experts that think otherwise. It's fair to ask how good are those other experts, but I don't actually want to get into the credentials battle, because it's an observation I've made countless times that most people are unable to evaluate the relative merits of various experts. Unless you are at a level that is only a bit below those experts, you can easily be confused by irrelevant factors.

So, if you aren't the sort of person that can evaluate by yourself the relative merits of experts, what do you have? There is always circumstantial evidence. In other words: if the "peak oil is coming soon" experts were right, what sort of things would you expect to see happening that would not happen otherwise? I can list a few:

1. Wars in oil-rich countries that appear to be focused on gaining control of oil.
2. An increase in electric vehicles, vehicles that use non-oil based fuels, and an increase in ethanol in the gasoline mix.
3. Profit-based oil extraction (as opposed to oil extraction by nationalized companies, that isn't driven primarily by profits) going through aggressive boom and bust cycles: when oil gets more expensive, investments increase and projects that are complex from an engineering point of view get going, but as the results of these projects disappoints, they go bust.
4. People claiming that peak oil is in fact going to happen soon. Talking about "peak oil demand" is after all, claiming that peak oil is going to happen soon, just giving an alternative explanation for it.
5. A change in the way central banks and interest rates operate. We know from the 70s oil crisis that oil has a big effect on the economy overall. While you'd have to be an expert on finance to understand the best financial response to an oil crisis, you don't need to be an expert to know that there needs to be one.

We have seen all of these happening. Some of them may have alternative explanations, but the combination of all of them I don't find easy to explain in a world that doesn't find itself rather constrained in terms of available oil.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 22 Jan 2022, 17:48:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s there are no facts in the future, we cannot declare the estimate itself a fact, but we can say that it is a fact real live experts showed that there is no falling off a cliff going on today, or expected to happen by these experts in the near future.


Sure. And that's an argument that has been made in this site lots of times, and with the few posters left here, it's fair to assume we are all aware of it.


NO. It is not fair to assume ALL, because we know for a fact that Armageddon ISN'T one of those who is aware of it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')So, if you aren't the sort of person that can evaluate by yourself the relative merits of experts, what do you have? There is always circumstantial evidence. In other words: if the "peak oil is coming soon" experts were right, what sort of things would you expect to see happening that would not happen otherwise? I can list a few:

1. Wars in oil-rich countries that appear to be focused on gaining control of oil.
2. An increase in electric vehicles, vehicles that use non-oil based fuels, and an increase in ethanol in the gasoline mix.
3. Profit-based oil extraction (as opposed to oil extraction by nationalized companies, that isn't driven primarily by profits) going through aggressive boom and bust cycles: when oil gets more expensive, investments increase and projects that are complex from an engineering point of view get going, but as the results of these projects disappoints, they go bust.
4. People claiming that peak oil is in fact going to happen soon. Talking about "peak oil demand" is after all, claiming that peak oil is going to happen soon, just giving an alternative explanation for it.
5. A change in the way central banks and interest rates operate. We know from the 70s oil crisis that oil has a big effect on the economy overall. While you'd have to be an expert on finance to understand the best financial response to an oil crisis, you don't need to be an expert to know that there needs to be one.


Now take the next scientific based step...it isn't hard....and find all the other times those things have happened WITHOUT a peak oil involved.

1) Starting around WWI
2) 1970's for ethanol and 1996 for when the EV1 was produced.
3) Boom and bust cycles began by 1863 and have never left the industry. I've been in industry through the following (drilling boom of the late 70's, oil price crash of 1986, Asian flu of the late 90's). There have been others since, but I had changed careers before the turn of the century.
4) First peak oil claims date to 1886 for the US. USGS for the US in 1919. Hubbert did his first US claim in 1936 (for 1950). Hubbert claimed it variously again starting in 1956 and included the world by the end of the century, Jimmy Carter gave us "running out" by the end of the 1980's, Colin Campbell began the modern peak oil era with a global claim for 1990, and the first of this century in 2002. Deffeyes in 2005. IEA in 2006. TOD in 2008. Ron Patterson, a remnant of TOD and now at the PeakOilBarrel first demonstrated why you don't listen to computer engineers on geology based topics by claiming another in 2015 (might have been 2013, will have to check), did it again in 2018 (current peak oil). Name a time when people HAVEN'T been claiming running outs and peak oils? Bad claim Doly, if you want to claim to be an honest peak oiler, knowing the history is one of the first items for study.
5) Banking Act of 1935 in the US. Breton Woods. Name a time when there WASN'T a change in the way banks and interest operates?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')We have seen all of these happening.


Indeed. And 6 peak oils called this century. Doly are you just a researcher, or are you an actual scientist? Because there are some basic precepts on how science gets done when forming an opinion (if you want it to hold up to scrutiny anyway) that you seem to be skipping right by. We've seen wars and crashes and economic malaise and the list goes on and on and are you seriously trying to claim that this is all somehow new, in preparation for the final, gotta be true this time, bet your life on it finally arriving, praise Baby Jesus it is here, and this time Lord I know #7 will be IT!!!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')Some of them may have alternative explanations, but the combination of all of them I don't find easy to explain in a world that doesn't find itself rather constrained in terms of available oil.

Strikes me that the best timeframe that hits all of them was somewhere in the 1970's, derived from the consequences of the general energy crisis and stagflation of the 1970's, banks and gold and interest rates and ladies and gentleman....I give you the global peak oil in 1979. Doly, are you old enough to remember the last real energy crisis of the world in the 1970's? Because it has always struck me that folks who didn't live through it are more likely to pretend that NOW is somehow special and bad, and then claim malaise or peak oil, when to some of us old farts it just looks like deja vu.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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