[Pops]

US oil production will continue increasing slowly,1 returning near the previous peak by the end of the year. 2
US oil price will continue at about the same $75 level3 until storage returns to average levels.4



We haven't seen the peak5 yet but we're getting peaky,
And as I've always said, it ain't demand peak either. 6
US shale growth is mostly Permian and right now mostly shooting DUCs 7
More money won't come to oil investment8 so LTO growth will be slow.9

If you go to sites that talk about peak oil, they are speculating both RU and KSA are close to peak and the US is within a few years. KSA is always just a month away from crashing though, LOL

Russia on the other hand might have already 10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Moscow Times', '.').. Russian oil production might never recover to pre-coronavirus levels, the country’s Energy Ministry has forecast, according to the Kommersant business paper.

In a strategy document outlining prospects for Russia’s critical oil and gas industry, the government said its “base case” — or most likely — scenario, is that Russia’s oil production will never again hit the record levels recorded in 2019.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')Omicron will kill more Republicans

[careinke]

Thanks to Pops for starting this thread. As an amateur futurist, I always enjoy everybody’s prediction of the next year.

Just remember, things never progress as fast as you think short term, and way faster than everyone thinks long term. The reason being is Humans have a blind spot for truly understanding exponential growth. A quick example to demonstrate. Most of us know about the single grain of rice on a square of a chess board doubling each time until all 64 squares are filled. Someone figured it out using todays worldwide rice production and the average weight of a single grain of rice. The answer turns out to be, based on current production, it would take the next 10,000 years to produce enough rice to complete the task.

Here is another more relevant example I picked up from Jeff Booth’s book “The Price of Tomorrow: Why Deflation is the Key to an Abundant Future.” We all know you can only fold a piece of paper about 7 times before it is not possible to fold it anymore leaving you with a folded piece of paper about an inch high. In his example he asks how high the paper would be IF you could continue folding it until you reached 50 folds. (I’ll post the answer at the end of this tome.)

Jeff then goes on to relate this to disruptive human technologies starting with Fire as the first fold. Control of fire (energy) is what separates humans from all other biological organisms. After fire, comes other techs, stone age, agriculture, movable print, etc. (I’m just naming some, not all of them). Anyway, there have been about 37 “folds” so far. At present time these “disruptions” have sped up to about one every 18 months.

Well this is getting a little long, so I’ll post my predictions for 2022 in my next post. Oh, the answer to folding the paper 50 times. It would reach from Earth to the sun!

PEACE

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'J')ust remember, things never progress as fast as you think short term, and way faster than everyone thinks long term.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')Omicron will kill more Republicans

[careinke]

OK, here are my 2022 predictions in no particular order;

1. Assets: Bitcoin will cross six figures, gold will decline, Index funds will decline, real estate will decline in cities and appreciate in most other areas except blue states, and silver will appreciate.

2. US dollar as the world currency: An attempt will be made to eliminate physical cash and replace it with a central bank e-dollar. This will fail even more dramatically than the e-won for similar reasons: Lack of transparency, lack of trust, and generally a surveillance system disguised as a currency. There is a slight possibility the US could adopt a decentralized stable coin backed by the US dollar instead. Top on the list is probably USDC, but there are others.


3. Banks: Will increase offerings of crypto currency management for their customers to remain relevant. Their sales pitch will include stress safety and “expertise” all red herrings.

4. Black Swans: Covid (it’s here forever), deflation (will not be recognized until later in the year), and weather/climate change events (more once in a thousand-year events).

5. Fossil Fuels: Consumption will continue up through the year. However, it will start transitioning away from using them for transportation and heat to more specialized uses like lubricants, plastics, and other specialized needs.

6. Agriculture: You can now produce tomatoes locally all year round in Connecticut cheaper than importing them from California. Food will continue to become cheaper and more profitable grown locally vs large scale agriculture. This will also cut down on pesticide and chemical fertilizer use.

7. Medical: Mabey not next year, but very soon, Primary Care physicians will become obsolete, replaced by AI with much better results. Same can be said for Anesthesiologists, Lab Technicians, Psychiatrists, Pharmacists, etc. etc.

8. Politics: The D vs R battle will continue with each side trying to divide the country using race, wealth disparity, city vs country etc. Fortunately, this will decrease as more people are red pilled into reality. Hopefully before civil war breaks out. The R’s will take over both houses in the 2022 election.

9. Education: Parents will take back control of primary education. Higher education will continue in it’s economic death throws, soon to be replaced by Web3, which will give everyone the very best teachers from all fields, and it will be free.

10. Entertainment: Pay to play games will diminish replaced by Play to earn games. Artists will start to control their own content increasing their revenue through WEB3. Gaming/VR will help with remittances across boarders and allow more people to make money higher than available in third will countries.

I could go on, but ten predictions is probably enough. 2022 is going to be rough, but there are a LOT more opportunities available today than when I was growing up, you just need to look outside of the box, because the box is now full of shit and no longer functioning.


Peace and welcome to WEB3

P.S.

OK, one more prediction: The percentage of people working in traditional jobs (not the governments fictitious employment figures) will continue to decline. Hail to the grey market!

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')Just remember, things never progress as fast as you think short term, and way faster than everyone thinks long term. The reason being is Humans have a blind spot for truly understanding exponential growth.

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')Just remember, things never progress as fast as you think short term, and way faster than everyone thinks long term. The reason being is Humans have a blind spot for truly understanding exponential growth.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')If I read you right, I agree. For example, if you project this to FF's available on earth, there is definitely an end game. I am not so sure you can apply the same reasoning to knowledge or culture.

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')If I read you right, I agree. For example, if you project this to FF's available on earth, there is definitely an end game. I am not so sure you can apply the same reasoning to knowledge or culture.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')Wow, I didn't realize you were the authority on what/when you can apply an exponential function. I'll try and remember to consult you in the future before I post again, not.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')Here is another more relevant example I picked up from Jeff Booth’s book “The Price of Tomorrow: Why Deflation is the Key to an Abundant Future.” We all know you can only fold a piece of paper about 7 times before it is not possible to fold it anymore leaving you with a folded piece of paper about an inch high. In his example he asks how high the paper would be IF you could continue folding it until you reached 50 folds. (I’ll post the answer at the end of this tome.)

...

Well this is getting a little long, so I’ll post my predictions for 2022 in my next post. Oh, the answer to folding the paper 50 times. It would reach from Earth to the sun!

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'O')K, here are my 2022 predictions in no particular order;

...

5. Fossil Fuels: Consumption will continue up through the year. However, it will start transitioning away from using them for transportation and heat to more specialized uses like lubricants, plastics, and other specialized needs.

6. Agriculture: You can now produce tomatoes locally all year round in Connecticut cheaper than importing them from California. Food will continue to become cheaper and more profitable grown locally vs large scale agriculture. This will also cut down on pesticide and chemical fertilizer use.

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')Wow, I didn't realize you were the authority on what/when you can apply an exponential function. I'll try and remember to consult you in the future before I post again, not.

[careinke]

* MODS,

I tried to find the 2021 predictions, but the site would not let me do the search. Could someone please bump the 2021 thread so I can check it out??? Actually it doesn't even need to be a MOD. Please and thanks!

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')I thought about commenting on your 2022 prediction, but it would be impossible to check in early 2023, so no point even though it may be correct. I'm pretty sure that's why Pops chose the thread topic.

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')I thought about commenting on your 2022 prediction, but it would be impossible to check in early 2023, so no point even though it may be correct. I'm pretty sure that's why Pops chose the thread topic.

[Pops]

Thanks C,
There are only 12 people on this site and thousands of threads.
This one is for predictions
Don't muck it up

[evilgenius]

I don't know if Biden will be able to realign and reseal the global order? The current supply shortages could simply be like the metaphor of the ship that was stuck in the Suez Canal. You know, really bad, but something that will eventually become unstuck.

The thing is, if you add in all of the echoes that human emotion is capable of adding, and where they can weirdly show up, then you have a recipe for a violent year, internationally. There will probably be some prominent wars.

I wouldn't go so far as to predict that China will invade Taiwan. I think they will keep the political pressure on, by doing fly-bys and other military moves. But China is mostly doing something on land that hasn't been done before.

They are using the old Silk Road lessons to establish themselves in the Middle East and Africa. The sea is nice, but it is ruled by someone else. Whatever China is doing in response to the break down of the global order, they will do it on land, most likely, away from the sea.

That's probably why hypersonic weapons will become important. Two or three times the speed of the SR-71. I think that was a minute from horizon to horizon, at so many tens of thousands of feet. They could replace carriers as the means to project power. They could do payloads, or drones. An air force of drones, all of a sudden.

What it would do would be to provide those powers that had the capability to operate such things, with the ability to enfeeble any power that didn't. They could wreck that power's infrastructure, even in far away land locked places, at will. It would actually be far cheaper than colonization, which was always how these things had to be done before.

The US would be suddenly vulnerable because it relies upon a nuclear deterrent for all actions against its infrastructure. But a sudden, wide scale drone attack would not rise up to the same standard as a chemical attack, or an EMP, for that matter. It would be very hard to justify nuclear reprisal. The US will invest in this tech.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')Oh come on, you've been around here for almost six years. you know how this works.