[Revi]

The price of oil is up by almost 70%. Electricity is up by 80%. If this isn't peak oil, what is it?

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')he price of oil is up by almost 70%. Electricity is up by 80%. If this isn't peak oil, what is it?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')he price of oil is up by almost 70%. Electricity is up by 80%. If this isn't peak oil, what is it?

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')he price of oil is up by almost 70%. Electricity is up by 80%. If this isn't peak oil, what is it?

[rangerone314]

Good at chopping wood?

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'G')ood at chopping wood?

[Armageddon]

How much longer can you peak oil denier shills keep up your charade?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'H')ow much longer can you peak oil denier shills keep up your charade?

[Armageddon]

Time to bring on another Covid variant to slow the economy to hide the energy cliff.

[Armageddon]

Right on cue

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'G')ood at chopping wood?

[randomguyonabike]

the system is on the verge of collapsing right now

mass volatility starting up again

the federal govt is now borrowing to pay the debt and the interest

we are in the end game now

oil production is falling hence.....COVID-19 scamdemic

the shales are going belly up

it is going to be all over soon

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')I've got four acres of birch and alder around my cabin here, and every fall I chainsaw down some trees and then I cut 1-2 cords of firewood from trees I cut down the year before.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('randomguyonabike', '
')it is going to be all over soon

[Pops]

This is the only peak oil chart that matters, expenditures on energy goods and services as a percent of total personal consumption expenditures. This is through October 2021



Unless energy jumps to a significant part of personal consumption expense, peak or not is moot. Regardless of any blather about oil becoming worthless, for the foreseeable future, a shortage of oil —or even that perception, will increase the price. Oil is about 60% of energy costs in PCE so if it quickly tripled in price to say $250bbl, total energy expense might be 8% or 10% of PCE, near the 1972 level.

Many of our habits, like driving to work, are hard to change so oil price is inelastic in the short run. So right away other spending suffers and of course most everything we buy is shipped, trained, trucked, when we cut back on other purchases much of the demand destruction is commercial. That's why many big oil price jumps proceed recessions (also overheated economies are both energy intense and prone to collapse).

But of course recessions reduce the average income ... and since income is where personal consumption comes from, the energy expenditure percentage rises even more.

Eventually though demand destruction (conservation or recession) puts a lid on the price increase. The difference in the event of peak oil will be that oil production doesn't eventually increase and allow the economy to return to growth. Instead oil production continues to decline, and its portion of personal consumption increases to some point.

I don't know what that point is. Guess we'll find out.

.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he difference in the event of peak oil will be that oil production doesn't eventually increase and allow the economy to return to growth. Instead oil production continues to decline, and its portion of personal consumption increases to some point.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'T')hat depends on how much oil the average person is using. With ethanol now part of the normal petrol mix, and car usage decreasing, and an increase in electric vehicles, it's quite possible that we see peak oil without any major increases in the portion of personal consumption expenditure. That seems to be what a lot of movers and shakers have been aiming for, but whether they achieve it or not is another question. In fact, there's a good argument that peak oil is happening about now, but we aren't noticing it much in the price of oil.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ar use isn't decreasing

[gollum]

It seems to me that the jobs that are necessary for society to function all have to be done in person. It's impossible to be a doctor or a cop or the guys that keep the electricity going from home. So in my humble opinion it's all those home based jobs that will be in danger as society simplifies.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ar use isn't decreasing