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Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Roxy » Mon 01 Nov 2021, 09:13:57

OS, you still haven’t explained why battery prices will continue to fall in this inflationary environment.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 01 Nov 2021, 09:18:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roxy', 'O')S, you still haven’t explained why battery prices will continue to fall in this inflationary environment.


In the past 15 years, the only non-inflationary environment we've had in the US has been during the 2008 financial crash. The rest of the time, we've had inflation.

And lithium-ion battery prices have fallen across that entire time period.

What makes you think this trend established in an inflationary environment will stop?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Roxy » Mon 01 Nov 2021, 13:04:36

Because all raw materials are going up in price.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 01 Nov 2021, 14:05:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roxy', 'B')ecause all raw materials are going up in price.


And apparently everything has been going up in price across most of this century. While battery prices continued to drop.

Hence my question. You are suggesting something is about to change, from a pattern that has happily continued for most of this century. Why? Raw materials are part of all the inflation that has come before, obviously. Do you have data that says raw materials inflation is far outsized and therefore must cause a reversal of a trend driven not so much by changes in raw materials cost, but rather increased manufacturing efficiencies?

Why is it folks said there was only X oil left in the world, 30 years ago? And now, not only is oil still here, but there is far more in the reserves column than there was 30 years ago?

You do realize that Ehrlich lost this bet to a run of the mill economist, using this angle, right?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Mon 01 Nov 2021, 14:55:39

Price trends trend to continue forever. They are extraordinary stable. Look at the diagram for shale breakeven prices. Today all LTO wells are profitable even with negative oil prices.Image

HOORRAYYY !
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 01 Nov 2021, 16:21:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', 'P')rice trends trend to continue forever. They are extraordinary stable.


So amazingly easy to demonstrate that not ONLY do you know nothing about the basics of the natural sciences in question, but you don't have a clue about price trends! Look how they continue forever!

Image

Someone remind me, which of these trends that don't continue forever are from thermodynamics, rather than the usual supply/demand relationship?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 01 Nov 2021, 19:47:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', 'P')rice trends trend to continue forever. They are extraordinary stable. Look at the diagram for shale breakeven prices. Today all LTO wells are profitable even with negative oil prices.Image

HOORRAYYY !

Thank you for demonstating that my house cat, which could adapt to stimuli, was FAR smarter than you clearly are.

The price of crude oil, over time, is ANYTHING but what a sane person would call "stable".

Meanwhile, how's that ETP theory re WTI being at $2 and unrecoverable due to economics two months from now working out for you?

(Hint, at roughly $84 as of today, your ETP prediction is off by a whopping factor of FORTY TWO. And the trend for WTI is that it's still rising.)

https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude- ... tory-chart

And BTW, that's basically true, re highly volatile prices over time for most commodities -- crude oil is just a blatant example, and the subject of ETP nonsense.

(But you can make things up. Who could possibly argue even with the internet for lots and lots of credible data?) :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Tue 02 Nov 2021, 07:45:11

The trolls are barking. Can dogs understand irony ? I don't believe that.
Trolls evidently can't. Or their Pavlovian responses hindered them, to read the last sentence of my post.

Roxy, neither AB or OS will ever give you rationale answers. Both are leftovers from the last century, with ideas from the past. They want to convince all people that peak oil is impossible. Why do they spent the whole day writing posts here at peakoil.com if they are right ? Schizophrenic disorder ? Or are they paid for it ?














e
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 02 Nov 2021, 08:35:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', 'T')hey want to convince all people that peak oil is impossible.


Who is they?

Everyone around here understands that peak oil is a mathematical fact, just not a temporal certainty in year XXXX. The idea that Happy McPeaksters can't predict their way out of a wet paper bag when it comes to putting a date on it isn't anyone's fault but the likes of you and others in the congregation.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Roxy » Tue 02 Nov 2021, 12:55:35

Some of the posters at PeakoilBarrel say that peak oil was in November of 2018. In my opinion, they are the experts.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 02 Nov 2021, 15:19:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roxy', 'S')ome of the posters at PeakoilBarrel say that peak oil was in November of 2018. In my opinion, they are the experts.


The most recent claimed peak oil was November of 2018. It is the 6th claimed peak oil (2002,2005,2006,2008,2015,2018) of this century. If memory serves, that website also made the peak oil claim of 2015.

Some of them are quite smart, some of them have industry experience, and all of them appear to not be bothered in the least by the broken clock is right twice a day syndrome. One of them, when provided with his prior peak oil claim of 2008 as part of The Oil Drum, claimed in his defense, "well, some new data came along, so I changed my model outputs". Some might refer to this as "making shit up as you go along" but that is rude, so I'll just stick to the broken clock analogy.

Let me apologize in case I didn't completely understand your statement, did you mean to imply that they were experts because they have declared peak oil more than once already, or that only experts would be so clever to use the broken clock routine in the hopes that the less clever wouldn't notice?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Roxy » Tue 02 Nov 2021, 15:36:45

You may be right. The reality is I think these guys are some of the most knowledgeable people in the energy industry. I have learned more from that site than I have here. Plus, I don’t have to read bs or insults over there-just facts and opinions. Even better, I don’t see any trolls over there.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 02 Nov 2021, 18:12:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roxy', 'Y')ou may be right. The reality is I think these guys are some of the most knowledgeable people in the energy industry.


You can think anything you please. Remember when folks claimed the same thing about Jeff Brown? Savinar? Heinberg? Ruppert? Hirsch? Tverberg? Sam? Deffeyes? Campbell? Patterson? ASPO? :) How many peak oils does someone or some site have to fall for before it discredits itself, in your eyes?

As to what passes for "knowledgeable", there are two commercial informational sources that qualify as "the best you can buy". You see, a peak oil calculation ( I say "a", but that is a feint because "a" implies there is only one answer in a sea of probabilities) requires some pretty stiff analysis, using some difficult to get and expensive data. Without data, and a system that encompasses all 3 of the technical specialties involved, you are just wandering around in the dark, doing the broken clock thing. Which one might POB rely on to do their work? :mrgreen:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roxy', '
') I have learned more from that site than I have here.


Since when is peak oil about learning? Read the dogma provided, as interpreted by the prophets, sing in the choir, and for the love of God DON'T DARE to think. Religions don't like that. The few websites that survived the first 5 claimed peak oils are mostly social clubs now, or clock watchers like the POB folks. The only one even attempting to square the circle is Dennis, and he is as limited by his information as the rest of them.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roxy', '
') Plus, I don’t have to read bs or insults over there-just facts and opinions. Even better, I don’t see any trolls over there.


You don't find the heretics in the pews of your church Roxy. You gotta go where people think for a living, and do it with real live stuff called "information".
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Roxy » Tue 02 Nov 2021, 19:04:00

It’s all about learning. Not just about peak oil but energy in general. Maybe you should go over there and learn something. But I must warn you, I don’t think they will tolerate your bs and insults.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 02 Nov 2021, 20:10:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roxy', 'I')t’s all about learning. Not just about peak oil but energy in general.


Well, now you've expanded the topic. If by learning about peak oil in the "gee isn't this an interesting topic" then I would agree with you. Everyone should know something about this topic, and sure, energy as well. But folks who think they truly understand peak oil who haven't bothered to learn the history, the prior ills in the systems and methods, that it has both happened and been claimed many times in the past but more importantly WHY, that is something else altogether.

And it matters if you THINK you learned about it from the faith based advocates, or those who do it based on science, critical thinking, logic, etc etc. Data too. :)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roxy', '
')Maybe you should go over there and learn something. But I must warn you, I don’t think they will tolerate your bs and insults.


I've already been there. I was there when some of the prophets were at TOD. Where did you think I got the example of "gee I know I was wrong but then I changed all my answers after reality proved me wrong the first time"?

And I notice that you didn't mention if they accessed the data necessary to draw conclusions of value in the first place? What do you call it when people guess without data? Knowledgable analysis? State of the art analytics? Or a WAG?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 03 Nov 2021, 15:24:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', 'T')he trolls are barking. Can dogs understand irony ? I don't believe that.
Trolls evidently can't. Or their Pavlovian responses hindered them, to read the last sentence of my post.

Roxy, neither AB or OS will ever give you rationale answers. Both are leftovers from the last century, with ideas from the past. They want to convince all people that peak oil is impossible. Why do they spent the whole day writing posts here at peakoil.com if they are right ? Schizophrenic disorder ? Or are they paid for it ?


So show me where I was wrong in my math.

You can't of course. But you can whine.

When that's a convincing argument, be sure and get back to us.

Meanwhile, in the REAL world, at the end of 2021, WTI will be WAY over $2 a barrel, and it will still be "affordable" to pump oil.

And you'll be barking, mindlessly, like a pit bull at a fence.

Congratulations?

...

Oh, BTW, when you can't spell "rational" or proof read, do you think that helps your hand waving, fact free argument?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Thu 04 Nov 2021, 04:34:01

Short check for dementia:

OS, where did i write , that the price of oil will be 2 $ in 2021 ?
Where did i predict this price ?
Which of my diagrams shows a price of oil of 2 $ in 2021 ?

Instead of spitting insults continously, you should learn something, for example thermodynamics. If you are too old to learn, shut up.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 04 Nov 2021, 10:23:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', 'S')hort check for dementia:

OS, where did i write , that the price of oil will be 2 $ in 2021 ?


Are graphs "writing"? You are aware that other folks have done the entire ETP schtick before you, right? And the ETP has previously declared that the price of oil by now is $0, ignorantly claimed to be because people can't afford it.

But ETP has been around before you began trying to reconfigure it to not be as stupid as it has previously proven itself to be. You just fit random trends, pretend that oil field temperatures change without having ever looked at a temperature log to realize otherwise, and pretend that thermodynamics is the mechanism to cause your favorite fantasy doom.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')Which of my diagrams shows a price of oil of 2 $ in 2021 ?


You, sir or ma'am, AIN'T the ETP. Instead of spitting insults continuously, you should learn something, for example thermodynamics. If you are too old to learn, shut up. :)
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 05 Nov 2021, 01:08:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', 'S')hort check for dementia:

OS, where did i write , that the price of oil will be 2 $ in 2021 ?
Where did i predict this price ?
Which of my diagrams shows a price of oil of 2 $ in 2021 ?

Instead of spitting insults continously, you should learn something, for example thermodynamics. If you are too old to learn, shut up.

So you've been pumping ETP as correct for a long time, but you have NO idea what it predicts, re prices, etc.

Well, OK then. Brilliant. :roll:

Oh, and just saying "thermodynamics" and not being able to spell "continuously" or proof read isn't exactly impressive, when saying someone else should learn something. :idea:

Big hint: The actual folks who work in oil production on this site have had a tendency to repeatedly point out that it's ECONOMICS that decides whether to produce oil at a given site, NOT thermodynamics.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 05 Nov 2021, 09:16:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', ' ')The actual folks who work in oil production on this site have had a tendency to repeatedly point out that it's ECONOMICS that decides whether to produce oil at a given site, NOT thermodynamics.


You know what is sort of interesting? I've worked with more than a few hard rock folks in my day, and they have a tendency to disparage economics as well. Not project economics mind you, we are taught that in schule, but the pie in the sky, arm waving "this is the price 30 years from now and therefore all of what I say next must be true!" type stuff.

I just went along with the crowd as it were, if you think about it, it wasn't hard to find examples all around the economics world of people saying just stupid stuff, 180 degrees apart using the same "science", and each took themselves seriously.

So folks who like Baudila, who pretend that their half assed interpretation of something that isn't half assed (math, physics, fluid flow through porous media, the application of all of the above to nearly 2 centuries of oil and gas development in the US) is the only answer, aren't uncommon.

I must have been nearly in my late 40's before it began to dawn on me that there were principles in that social science worthy of consideration, and could entirely trump the relevance of the technical side in a heartbeat.
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