[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'W')e are experiencing global energy shortages and these two same fools are claiming we aren’t past PO.

[yellowcanoe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yellowcanoe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')

[Armageddon]

BREAKING NEWS:

THE GLOBAL ENERGY CRISIS IS SEVERE ENOUGH THAT IT COULD FUEL SOCIAL UNREST AND WORSEN INFLATION - BLACKSTONE CEO, STEPHEN SCHWARZMAN

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Hubbert was right, even in 1956, when he explained the math of growth of extraction of finite resources. But that wasn't good enough for the Prophets to sell to the acolytes, pesky logic and math, nope. They needed doom, it can't ever be too far in the future (plus suckers will always come back after a bad call, it isn't as though they THOUGHT their way into the church, right?), and so who needs to know anything? 7 claimed peak oils (that I can name without looking) this century (including the most recent), peak oil has it all over the Mayan calendar and Nibiru for the faithful.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')The thing that really bothers me over time is that almost EVERY time, the fast crash doom re oil peak folks use the SAME damn chart. (They just move the dates). It always shows oil production going off a cliff in our face.

[yellowcanoe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')The thing that really bothers me over time is that almost EVERY time, the fast crash doom re oil peak folks use the SAME damn chart. (They just move the dates). It always shows oil production going off a cliff in our face.

And they never give a good reason the collapse should be so soon and so steep THIS time. ("This time is different", "the economy can't afford to produce enough oil", "thermodynamics", etc. just don't cut it, no matter how often they try it, given they have no real supporting data, science, etc. behind such claims.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yellowcanoe', ' ')However the impact of peak oil is going to vary widely. I would expect it to be quite damaging to poorer countries that depend entirely on imports. Initially at least, I would not expect a huge impact on wealthy countries, especially those that produce oil.

[radon1]

Wonder where this electricity for EVs will come from. ICE utilizes about 30-40% of energy produced, the rest is lost to heat, and this is a very good ratio. Now we need to produce electricity at some ratio, then transport it at some ratio, then store at some ratio, then utilize in an EV at some ratio. So many additional steps and who knows how good these ratios are compared to ICE's. Where will all this additional energy come from without hydrocarbons?

[Pops]

What the Blackstone guy Schwarzman is talking about is lack of investment in new production due to pressure on pensions, endowments etc to divest from fossils. James Hansen had an op-ed somewhere a couple of days ago bragging on the 40 trillion or whatever that activists have convinced to do just that. I was going to post on that very thing.

Everyone reading here knows that the overall decline rate, sans new production, is somewhere between 3-8% per year, take away the financing of new production and that is the reduction in supply per year. No great mystery.

Take how slowly LTO drilling, financed now mostly by private money rather than the firehose of institutions, is ramping up. Companies are completing DUCs rather than new drilling and interestingly LTO production per new well is way up, showing the DUCs were in the sweet spots and after they're gone, in a year or 2, production per well could plummet. Completing them now also shows I think, this appealing to institutions. The drillers' cashflow looks awesome without the pesky costs of actually drilling. Rig count still around 400, it was 600 pre-pandemic but frack spreads are working hard.

Fracking's other big problem is LTO wells just aren't living up to the hype. The Great Frack Scam's gig is up, turns out LTO wells will produce about a billion barrels less than promised.

So, finally, the transition seems to be underway. Peak oil appears likely this decade if one believe the PR of the oil majors and various politicians. The Jetsons vs Flintstones question is, will it be demand peak or supply peak?

Or will it be a supply crunch or peak caused not by geology but simple lack of funding?

.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('radon1', 'W')onder where this electricity for EVs will come from.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')Fracking's other big problem is LTO wells just aren't living up to the hype. The Great Frack Scam's gig is up, turns out LTO wells will produce about a billion barrels less than promised.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'S')o, finally, the transition seems to be underway. Peak oil appears likely this decade if one believe the PR of the oil majors and various politicians. The Jetsons vs Flintstones question is, will it be demand peak or supply peak?

Or will it be a supply crunch or peak caused not by geology but simple lack of funding?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')While I understand the psychological attraction of the "Demand Peak" hypothesis I find every argument in favor rather specious. IOW I am firmly convinced the peak when we get it will be a supply problem. Low supply will drive prices much higher which will cause demand destruction until the supply/demand situation comes back into balance.

[AirlinePilot]

The picture of Imports/Exports is definitely clouded by using apples and oranges comparisons. We can use BTU's, we can use all Liquid fuels , natural gas and oil liquids etc., but when one moves into specific defined variables...I.E. Crude oil production, which is what we are concerned with here, "mostly" the truth is just seemingly hard for some to swallow. What goes in and what goes out is very difficult to figure out with any certainty due to the problems of tracking what product goes where, where it is refined, and where it ends up for final consumption. There is a definite trend noted over the many years I have been watching this to confuse products from the well to the final user and I believe its done on purpose to move markets, especially the futures in pursuit of $.

Its not difficult or hard to find out what our CRUDE OIL consumption is and what our CRUDE OIL production is. Trying to deflect that simple paradigm of fact with confusing terminology, market driven speculation, dividing and measuring what goes in and out of every energy terminal, port, or refinery can be manipulated for whatever "side" of the debate/discussion one is on. Just like everything else these days I can find a well sourced documented article or paper supporting exactly opposing viewpoints to just about any topic on the planet. The big problem we all have is deciphering BS from truth.

We produce X and our demand currently is X+ How we solve the problem of the + part is and should be a simple calculation. I DO acknowledge the miracle of US fracking has created a much more favorable balance since 10-12 years ago, but as far as I can tell, we still use more than we produce when it comes to CRUDE OIL.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
') We produce X and our demand currently is X+ How we solve the problem of the + part is and should be a simple calculation. I DO acknowledge the miracle of US fracking has created a much more favorable balance since 10-12 years ago, but as far as I can tell, we still use more than we produce when it comes to CRUDE OIL.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'W')e have known how to do natural gas to synthetic fuel and coal gassification to synthetic fuel for at least a century if not longer at this point.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'W')e have known how to do natural gas to synthetic fuel and coal gassification to synthetic fuel for at least a century if not longer at this point.

[Revi]

It seems like the cost of extracting liquid fuel from anything other than petroleum is too high to create anything like the $2-3 gas we're used to getting. Maybe this signals the end of easy motoring. There are lots of alternatives. Perhaps people could drive less, or get around in mass transit. A small electric vehicle uses far less energy and could be used by a lot of people to get groceries, etc. The rest of the world gets around without taking 4000 pounds of steel and rubber to get things. I hate to say it, but maybe we could figure it out too...

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I')t seems like the cost of extracting liquid fuel from anything other than petroleum is too high to create anything like the $2-3 gas we're used to getting.