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Peak Oil 2020/2021

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Beefski » Fri 22 Oct 2021, 17:56:43

Pops, your graph has left off the most important part of the title - Petroleum and Petroleum Products
So no the USA is not a net exporter of Petroleum. But if you add in petroleum products like gasoline and diesel then yes.
:-D
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Pops » Sat 23 Oct 2021, 07:35:41

On net:
import 2.7 crude
export 1.4 products
and 1.9 gas liquids

Image
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Pops » Sat 23 Oct 2021, 08:53:59

This is as good a place as any I guess:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-oil-gas-rig-count-falls-first-week-seven-baker-hughes-2021-10-22/]U.S. oil & gas rig count falls for first week in seven -Baker Hughes[/url]
U.S. oil rigs fell 2 to 443 this week, while gas rigs rose 1 to 99. That was the first decline for oil rigs and the first increase in gas rigs since early September.

In March last year there were 790 rigs active in the US...


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')lsewhere
Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, which tracks the number of completion crews finishing off previously drilled wells, shows that completion crews rose by 5 to 268 for week ending October 15. The frac count is up by 135 since the start of the year.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... Weeks.html

and

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t took nearly 38 months to add 3,300 DUCs, from June 2017 to July 2020, Freeman said. However, it took only 14 months, from July 2020 to August 2021, to return to the June 2017 total of 5,700.

...However, “drilling activity has severely lagged completion activity,” Freeman noted. For E&Ps, the “thought process is simple.” Completing DUCs requires a “fraction” of the capital spending required to sustain production compared to drilling and completing more wells. That in turn has allowed E&Ps to maintain their capital discipline, grow their free cash flow and improve investor distributions.

“This, however, begs the question about sustainability,” Freeman said. “How long can E&Ps rely overwhelmingly on DUCs as a low-cost alternative to drilling new wells? To date, The EIA DUC count has decreased 34% in just 14 months while month/month DUC decline rates have remained unchanged since May.”
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/lower-4 ... ble-delta/


OK, so E&P are completing already drilled wells rather than drilling as they had been previously. Even though stocks are low and prices as high as they've been since 2014. It looks good on the bottom line, I get that. And they can drill faster than frack, OK.

My question is, are they not drilling just to keep up appearances and lure back the easy money investors to keep the scam going?
Or are they just out of good places to drill, even at $80 and just looking for the last big payoff?

Image

You can pull back on the throttle a while but eventually the old areoplane turns into a rock
.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 23 Oct 2021, 10:00:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'D')oes the US consume 20 MBPD of oil and only produce around 12mbpd?


From research I have done recently, US consumption of petroleum is about 18-19 mbpd and is growing slowly recently.

Production is at or just below 12 mbpd depending on sources and has been declining recently due to the pandemic and economic forces
falling out from that. I am sure price will signal a resurgence in production, but how much is still speculation.

I guess its not as simple as folks think, but big picture we still require imports to meet demand for finished products
here in the US.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 23 Oct 2021, 11:40:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')I did think about it. Hence my response. Can you reference how many people are reverse mortaging their cars? Is that like borrowing against a car already paid off? And people are doing this...BY ACCIDENT?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evil genius', '
') I worked with those people.


So...how did they not know that borrowing against their car was...borrowing against their car? Didn't they have to sign a paper or something, to allow at the least a lien to be initiated?

If they were working with a legal entity, like a car lot or a bank or something, then they must have. Now, whether they bothered to READ it or UNDERSTAND it or keep their copy or anything responsible like that, of course, could well be another matter.

A reverse mortgage on an expensive house MIGHT make sense for an old person, as long as their lawyer makes SURE they aren't being ripped off and that the terms are actually what the bank in question claimed they were when marketing the thing. A reverse mortgage on a paid off car that is running well almost certainly won't be a good thing for the consumer, considering the class of consumer such things would be pursuing. (The same folks who pay at least 3X what an electronic thing like a TV is worth to "buy it on time", paying huge interest rates for several years. Hell, when I checked on that for my mother because we happened to be standing outside the door of one of those outfits while TV shopping, even if you paid in cash, the "nice" folks at those places charged roughly twice what the TV was worth, compared to buying at a big box store. Heaven forbid people save a LITTLE money and give themselves a MUCH MUCH better deal on things.

But no doubt, it's ALL the fault of "the elites" like the conspiracy theory says. :roll:

Whenever I buy a car I make the salesperson go away (or sit and wait if they want) while I read through the stuff I have to sign. I don't read every word, but I make sure I have the gist of what I'm signing. When they say it's not important, I say, "Fine. If it's not important, I won't read it OR sign it. How's that work for you?" Then they mumble something about it being required, and I say, "Fine. So like I said, if it's important enough to your boss that I have to sign it, then it's important enough to ME that I have to read it and understand it."

Apparently there are a LOT of people who don't bother to understand what they sign, or I wouldn't have to go through that rigmarole just about every time, from the time I was 22, for four decades now.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 23 Oct 2021, 11:52:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'D')oes the US consume 20 MBPD of oil and only produce around 12mbpd?


From research I have done recently, US consumption of petroleum is about 18-19 mbpd and is growing slowly recently.


More research appears to be required.

Because about the time Saudi America arrived, so did America Refinery Of The World. So you have to watch the net number to find consumption, not just totals.

Like this.

Here is a more specific article. Looks like as of September 2021 writeups, we are break even.

Amazing what Saudi America managed, compared to back in the day when all the Happy McPeaksters were proclaiming the end. :lol:

Did you ever run out of fuel for your planes, professional or personal, back in the day of all those claimed peak oils? 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2015 or the most recent THE peak, 2018?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
') I guess its not as simple as folks think, but big picture we still require imports to meet demand for finished products
here in the US.


Not simple to folks who fell for church dogma on the topic anyway.

More research perhaps? The US is exporting 3 million barrels a day of finished products. Meeting demand and then some.

How about this for Saudi America, the US is the world's largest exporter of finished products. Beating out Saudi Arabia for the spot. MAN those pesky scientists types who didn't fall for Happy McPeakster silliness 15 years ago were precognitive!
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Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Pops » Sat 23 Oct 2021, 12:15:37

Depends on what "is" is, LOL
Just saying "crude" glosses over what crude has become.
20 years ago refineries used oil an average API of 30º
But all the new production is lighter The fracked shales produce light oil, and fracked wet gas lots of liquids that are even lighter. The lightest stuff mixed with the oil stream and gets separated out and sent off to make those tamper-proof containers letuce comes in.

Image
This chart is old but illustrates where fracking has taken things. 30º crude is only 5-6mbd

Image


Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')GLs and ethanol consumption have collectively grown from 2.6 million b/d in 2007 to 4.1 million b/d in 2019. The remaining portion of total petroleum and other liquids consumption—nearly all of which comes from petroleum refineries—has fallen from 18.0 million b/d in 2007 to 16.4 million b/d in 2019. In 2021, EIA forecasts that U.S. demand for principally refinery-produced products will average about 16.3 million b/d, similar to its 1997 level


https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41033
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 23 Oct 2021, 14:15:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'D')epends on what "is" is, LOL


And which peak oil we were supposed to soil ourselves over.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')Just saying "crude" glosses over what crude has become.
20 years ago refineries used oil an average API of 30º


And the US refineries specialize in creating products from heavies and sours, which is we why we import what is needed to balance out the assays. Check out imported crudes by gravity, and note what the most popular API gravity is.

Mix that <30API with light stuff to get what your refinery likes. And then ship 3 million barrels a day of finished product back out of the country.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')But all the new production is lighter The fracked shales produce light oil, and fracked wet gas lots of liquids that are even lighter.


Shales tend to have lighter crudes in them, regardless of completion type. And some shales have natural gas with a large liquid component, others less so. The Marcellus has both, from the same formation. There is no single answer to most of these questions, regardless of how we might prefer them that way. Seems like peak oilers have always been about easy answers, draw a bell shaped curve, proclaim the end of the world, etc etc.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 24 Oct 2021, 12:00:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Polybius', '.').. a lot of the gig worker jobs in US actually pay net negative wages but in deperation the permanent and exponentially growing underclass of Americans are unwittingly reverse mortgaging away their own cars to pay themselves by essentially converting the accelerated depreciation of their vehicles assets into the illusion of an temporary income source....


Image

Think about it, man. That is exactly what is happening. Just because you encounter this with disbelief doesn't mean it isn't happening.


I did think about it. Hence my response. Can you reference how many people are reverse mortaging their cars? Is that like borrowing against a car already paid off? And people are doing this...BY ACCIDENT?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evil genius', '
') I worked with those people.


So...how did they not know that borrowing against their car was...borrowing against their car? Didn't they have to sign a paper or something, to allow at the least a lien to be initiated?
Ah, I see that you are misunderstanding, probably because of some of the terms used. The terms are meant to point out how people can approach being self-employed without math skills. General contractors, of all kinds, have business models that encourage people to contribute to the process. Going into those businesses comes with expenses. The general contractors will accept their subcontractors taking on some of the expenses that they, in turn, are usually passing on from the customer, there being enough "competition" that there is some sort of market that allows the customer to dictate terms.

The subcontractors are just paying what it takes to get started, hoping that it will work out like climbing the property ladder does, when a person is brave, and the stars are all lined up. They have a bias. They think that capitalism always works.

If you ask them, they would probably say that it was their labor that helped add some "value" to whatever it was they delivered, not being able to imagine a world where that isn't true. So, there is some Marxism at work too. Most of them don't know a thing about Marx, though. They operate on the level of populist memes, really.

I guess my point is that there isn't really a competitive market that establishes anything like a wage scale for independent contractors who do certain gig worker type things, or routine things. There especially isn't, when it is Congress that has made up the difference, with some anti-organizing intent to a piece of legislation. Those add up over time. There can be leverage. It doesn't do any good to say to people that they should just leave. That's like telling a professional that they can go and work at McDonald's, only levered the opposite way. We know that these markets, even if they operate in a slanted fashion, will always act to fulfill themselves. It's simple economics. It's like gravity, when it comes to poor people.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Pops » Sun 24 Oct 2021, 12:14:20

Here is what I'm talking about,
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')loomberg:
One type of crude from America’s most prolific shale patch is having its moment, riding on the coattails of the global winter fuels crunch that has caused massive price rallies.

West Texas Light, a relatively new grade in the Permian Basin, is seeing a demand surge in recent weeks as buyers snap it up partly for its rich content of propane, a heating fuel that has shot up in value.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... f=fyhEsXfZ

More and more so-called crude has less and less of the intermediate factions that US refineries want . WTI is about 40º. So making comparisons by simply saying "crude" misses the point. The ethane propane etc are what is being exported while we import more useful crude say 20-25º to blend with the other light oil cuz that's what the refineries are designed for..

You can look on the EIA site here and see that we've doubled importing that weight—density really .

Image

I've been looking for a breakdown of production by API to compare current with historic but can only find it back to 2015. As well, I don't find exports by API.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 24 Oct 2021, 15:25:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')I've been looking for a breakdown of production by API to compare current with historic but can only find it back to 2015. As well, I don't find exports by API.
.


Good graphs here, some going back into deeper history than 2015 on average gravities (1985), imports and exports, that would seem to fit the bill.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby JuanP » Sun 24 Oct 2021, 16:35:46

I read that some OPEC countries, particularly Nigeria and Angola, are unable to increase oil production to meet their shares of the new OPEC+ production agreement.

Should we create a thread called 'The 2021/2022 Global Energy Crisis'? There are oil, gas, coal, and electricity shortages all over the world right now, and they won't get better any time soon.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 24 Oct 2021, 16:39:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JuanP', 'I') read that some OPEC countries, particularly Nigeria and Angola, are unable to increase oil production to meet their shares of the new OPEC+ production agreement.

Should we create a thread called 'The 2021/2022 Global Energy Crisis'? There are oil, gas, coal, and electricity shortages all over the world right now, and they won't get better any time soon.



The US supplied 80% of the worlds oil production increase the past 10 years with its shale. With that party ending, the energy cliff is upon us.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 24 Oct 2021, 18:12:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JuanP', 'I') read that some OPEC countries, particularly Nigeria and Angola, are unable to increase oil production to meet their shares of the new OPEC+ production agreement.

Should we create a thread called 'The 2021/2022 Global Energy Crisis'? There are oil, gas, coal, and electricity shortages all over the world right now, and they won't get better any time soon.



The US supplied 80% of the worlds oil production increase the past 10 years with its shale. With that party ending, the energy cliff is upon us.

Given your track record, I believe your predictions NOT AT ALL.

OTOH, when prices rise enough to spur investment in more fracking (bringing abandoned areas due to Covid-19 back online), things should be back to normal. Or OPEC / KSA starts massive over-production again, where prices come way down.

But as usual, you have constant short term doom to sell, despite being shown to be constantly wrong over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 24 Oct 2021, 19:33:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JuanP', 'I') read that some OPEC countries, particularly Nigeria and Angola, are unable to increase oil production to meet their shares of the new OPEC+ production agreement.

Should we create a thread called 'The 2021/2022 Global Energy Crisis'? There are oil, gas, coal, and electricity shortages all over the world right now, and they won't get better any time soon.



The US supplied 80% of the worlds oil production increase the past 10 years with its shale. With that party ending, the energy cliff is upon us.

Given your track record, I believe your predictions NOT AT ALL.

OTOH, when prices rise enough to spur investment in more fracking (bringing abandoned areas due to Covid-19 back online), things should be back to normal. Or OPEC / KSA starts massive over-production again, where prices come way down.

But as usual, you have constant short term doom to sell, despite being shown to be constantly wrong over time.




Take a look at the worlds condition and try to say with a straight face that I’ve been wrong. I dare you
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 24 Oct 2021, 19:38:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JuanP', 'I') read that some OPEC countries, particularly Nigeria and Angola, are unable to increase oil production to meet their shares of the new OPEC+ production agreement.


I seem to recall folks saying that about the US once? Went on for decades, endlessly repeated, etc etc. Turns out, predicting the future is tricky. And Nigeria has issues related to resource deveopment that have nothing to do with the amount of oil they COULD produce.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JuanP', '
')Should we create a thread called 'The 2021/2022 Global Energy Crisis'? There are oil, gas, coal, and electricity shortages all over the world right now, and they won't get better any time soon.


There are JIT delivery issues all over the world right now. Only those with a Happy McPeakster bent seem to be pretending that this has anything to do with a lack of oil, gas or coal.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 24 Oct 2021, 19:45:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', ' ') With that party ending, the energy cliff is upon us.


Image
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Revi » Sun 24 Oct 2021, 20:24:06

Your graph is all projection Adam B. What if I told you that the weather in the north is going to get warmer and warmer until the end of the year based on the way it's been warming up since January? The slight downward turn lately is just an anomaly.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 24 Oct 2021, 21:24:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'Y')our graph is all projection Adam B.


Except for the 10 years of history anyway. :) But sure, 2020 or 2021 or so they kicked off into a projection. But guess what? It was done by people who know stuff!! Not a one of them declared the end of the world back in 2005, or has ever been caught referencing Ruppert or Savinar or Alex Jones as a source of information.

Better yet? They are the only folks who PROJECTED peak oil, some 15+ years ago now, who haven't been proven wrong yet. So that means that of all the peak oil predictions made when you were on TV, through your movie, and until now, these are the folks who haven't been made to look like buffoons by history, date, reality, etc etc. Puts them light years ahead of any reference the Happy McPeaksters have ever used for peak oil in the first decade or more of this century.

Even more amusing, and something you didn't mention? The graph I provided contradicts what they claimed back then. So I'll give you that perhaps they have gotten more optimistic, or they have better data now.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')What if I told you that the weather in the north is going to get warmer and warmer until the end of the year based on the way it's been warming up since January? The slight downward turn lately is just an anomaly.


What if I told you that the weather has nothing to do with failed peak oil predictions? But has provided a nice refuge for those fleeing one discarded rapture claim for another?
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 24 Oct 2021, 21:37:23

We are experiencing global energy shortages and these two same fools are claiming we aren’t past PO.


China has shut down magnesium smelters to save electricity during their energy crunch.

Without magnesium, there is no Aluminium.
We are weeks away from shutting down .

87% of magnesium comes from China, because it is impossible to build a new smelter in the EU, USA or Canada.
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