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Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 21 Oct 2021, 00:02:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')I may have underestimated the US shale production, but I don’t think it’s sustainable. The US is in decline now.


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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 21 Oct 2021, 02:34:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('noobtube', '
')
Another story. After the government shutdown of 2018-2019, I told everyone close to me that shortages were coming. Buy and stock up on anything essential that has a long shelf-life (clothing, equipment, materials, toilet paper, etc.). For a solid year, nothing happened. Once the lockdowns hit, a lot of those people suffered for lack of preps and savings.


Yes they did, and let them eat cake I say, Après moi le déluge. 99% of people today do exactly what the TV tells them and only when the TV tells them. They are always behind the 8-ball. As soon as Covid was announced as being a big thing I went out and stocked up on tp, soap, food, etc, and when the panic hit a week later I was able to relax at home while everyone else was fighting in the aisles. I already had probably 100 rolls at home, and 200 cakes of soap, but it never goes off and always goes up in price so why not fill a walk-in robe with it. Now I'm stocking up on silver bullion, That's cheap, Pushbike parts and tires, I have a lot, and anything else I think I'll need for the next 10 years.

Anything I end up not needing I can probably sell for a big profit on ebay or gumtree, like a surplus motorcycle I sold recently, I got nearly what I paid for it new 5 years ago simply because prices have gone up so much. Money in the bank? Well we all have that but its value is melting like hail on a summer's day.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 21 Oct 2021, 03:06:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')I may have underestimated the US shale production, but I don’t think it’s sustainable. The US is in decline now.


I doubt you did.
The EROI of shale oil is typically between 1.4 and 1.5. It is because of the heat input requirements to produce the oil. From a business perspective, shale oil is not a desirable energy source.
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/r ... ment-eroi/

It was an economic stunt to allow for the creation of billions in credit so the new money could be used to help pay the interest on the older debt. It's a classic pyramid scheme. It's why Federal governments never rein in SS, why they had the stimulus packages, new money has to be created in ever greater amounts or the whole pyramid collapses.

What happens when the US can't make interest payments on it's 28 Trillion in debt? How much is 28 Trillion anyway, the figure is so outlandish you can't even get your head around it.

The distance to the moon is 384,000km or 15 Billion inches
The distance to Mars when it's closest is 156x that, 60 Million km roughly, or 2 Trillion inches.
So two trillion inches to mars compared with 28 trillion in debt. It's not a joke, it's just a delusion, a fantasy, and we are stripping the planet of every last resource to keep the fantasy going. And where is all that concrete and steel, plastic and oil eventually going? Into landfills.

For all practical purposes Peak oil was in 2007 and everything since has been a circus clown act.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby Revi » Thu 21 Oct 2021, 03:13:24

It seems like from here on in we'll all be looking for stuff. Maybe it's supply chain issues, maybe it's a general scarcity of stuff.
Here are some things that were scarce at the beginning of the summer:
https://strangesounds.org/2021/05/commo ... -long.html
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 21 Oct 2021, 09:54:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')For all practical purposes Peak oil was in 2007 and everything since has been a circus clown act.


Well, except for Saudi America, millions of barrels a day of new production since then, Qatar America, and all those things that make America what it is (for better or worse). Good thing Aussies have real friends to sell them real submarines, it isn't as though the descendants of prisoners can build any decent military hardware on their own. Now run along and herd sheep or something. :lol:
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 21 Oct 2021, 10:02:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I')t seems like from here on in we'll all be looking for stuff. Maybe it's supply chain issues, maybe it's a general scarcity of stuff.
Here are some things that were scarce at the beginning of the summer:
https://strangesounds.org/2021/05/commo ... -long.html


Last night I got the boy a meal from Burger King. No problem with ketchup packets, but they were out of Sprite!

The horror! Revi, here is what I have learned. The lead photo in your article showed empty shelves. It then spoke of all the shortages, the implication being, the US is like Iraq 30 minutes after the war began, all those years ago. Rather than falling for reporters sensationalizing lack of ketchup packets..somewhere....but not here....go down to your local store and let us know what you don't have. Here in run of the mill suburbia, cars are about the only thing not available. Otherwise, besides an occasional "out of my favorite hash browns" or something equally unimportant, there aren't empty shelves. Thinner? Maybe. The most amusing thing about all of this is that once upon a time, peakers focused pretty heavily on the JIT delivery process, and how it was vulnerable to their wet dream of peak oil. They were correct, except for their wet dream mechanism. But we are currently seeing the flaw in the JIT process, initiated because of the employment rearrangements initiated by Covid remedies.

Can folks turn it into the usual doom wet dream? Of course. It is what doomers do. Apply some neurons to the issue, fire some synapses, and the problem doesn't work out as doom any more than the 5 prior claimed or real peak oils of this century.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 21 Oct 2021, 11:22:26

WORLD BANK SEES ‘SIGNIFICANT’ INFLATION RISK FROM HIGH ENERGY PRICES


No shit?
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 21 Oct 2021, 12:42:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'W')ORLD BANK SEES ‘SIGNIFICANT’ INFLATION RISK FROM HIGH ENERGY PRICES


No shit?



This is the point in history that everyone discovers everything is made of oil, though it was on the cover of Time, long ago.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 21 Oct 2021, 13:04:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'W')ORLD BANK SEES ‘SIGNIFICANT’ INFLATION RISK FROM HIGH ENERGY PRICES


No shit?



This is the point in history that everyone discovers everything is made of oil, though it was on the cover of Time, long ago.


Those of us old enough to have experienced the 1970's energy crisis in the US figured it out then. Youngsters have to be told it I suppose. But even youngsters should remember the all time annual oil high prices middle of the last decade. And that didn't even cause the kind of crisis of the 1970's, even though the prices were far higher. And prices today? Not even a big deal yet.

Good thing oil isn't currently very expensive at all, all these newbies who have to be told the value of oil, you'd think they decided to stay ignorant of the world around them on purpose or something.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby Revi » Sun 24 Oct 2021, 16:41:04

Peak Oil probably won't save the world, but it may help out climate change a bit. I think most of the projections were based on using more and more fossil fuels. Maybe we'll get out of this under the 2 degrees C threshold for catastrophic climate change. I'm thinking of going on a "told ya so" tour with our film:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5efV-w8Ejk
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby Heineken » Mon 25 Oct 2021, 07:23:13

The positive feedback loops are all now strongly functioning, and to me they guarantee the failure of any attempt to even slow global warming. Despite all the talk and thrashing around, CO2 levels, as measured at Mauna Loa, continue to increase every year, EVEN in 2020 when so much was shut down, and again this year. Finally and worst of all, we have human nature to deal with. At this point, NOTHING can "save the world." The only realistic question is when collapse and dieback begin.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 25 Oct 2021, 12:47:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'T')he positive feedback loops are all now strongly functioning, and to me they guarantee the failure of any attempt to even slow global warming. Despite all the talk and thrashing around, CO2 levels, as measured at Mauna Loa, continue to increase every year, EVEN in 2020 when so much was shut down, and again this year. Finally and worst of all, we have human nature to deal with. At this point, NOTHING can "save the world." The only realistic question is when collapse and dieback begin.


Heineken is exactly right.

Except that there are some interesting questions in the short term and intermediate term time frames.....before total collapse arrives.

Like....how high will oil and NG prices go

What kind of phony climate change treaties and policies will TPTB come up with next as they pretend to do something about climate change?

When will the next recession start? Or will it be a depression?

How will climate change occur? How will societies respond?

AND

How can I and other people in the know make intelligent choices to maintain our personal safety and the safety of our families for as long as possible?

AND MOST IMPORTANT OF ALL

What can I find to laugh at next as our planet hurtles towards climate apocalypse?

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HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!

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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby Revi » Fri 29 Oct 2021, 03:00:59

I think we may be headed to a recession because most of the rest of the world is slipping into one now. China is in trouble after Evergrande. Maybe the supply line Xmas hype is to get stuff sold before we slip into it too. It's hard to figure out what's going on, but 1/3 higher energy prices can't be good for the economy.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 29 Oct 2021, 08:59:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think we may be headed to a recession because most of the rest of the world is slipping into one now. China is in trouble after Evergrande. Maybe the supply line Xmas hype is to get stuff sold before we slip into it too. It's hard to figure out what's going on, but 1/3 higher energy prices can't be good for the economy.



Joe better start printing more trillions
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 29 Oct 2021, 09:13:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', ' ')It's hard to figure out what's going on, but 1/3 higher energy prices can't be good for the economy.


A relative concept. Right now, energy prices (oil as a reference) are 45% lower than the peak oil peak in 2008 (called by TOD, and #3 of this century), and maybe 20% lower than they were for years back around 2011-2015 or so. So the world has already demonstrated it can handle higher oil prices, and those of us, like you Iver, who have begun changing our transportation fuels to something other than liquid fuels, we can be satisfied that we can still motor around all we'd like, and let the fools suffer the consequences of their transport decisions, right?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby mousepad » Fri 29 Oct 2021, 09:18:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'w')e can still motor around all we'd like, and let the fools suffer the consequences of their transport decisions, right?


I'm wondering if that's a pleasant world to live in. Where all the fools suffer and you motor along happily.
Do you think you will motoring for long in such a scenario?
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 29 Oct 2021, 12:25:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'w')e can still motor around all we'd like, and let the fools suffer the consequences of their transport decisions, right?


I'm wondering if that's a pleasant world to live in. Where all the fools suffer and you motor along happily.


Well, it was a conditional, the condition being folks refusing to recognize the value of alternative sources of fuels, to perpetuate their happy motoring through the horrors of an upcoming one or more new peak oils. You can imagine their terror, based on the peak oil dogma as it was written.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '
')Do you think you will motoring for long in such a scenario?


Sure. Said fools, upon being confronted with the consequences of their poor choices (and seeing those who made a superior choice continuing to happily motor along), will make better choices. Or choose to walk or bicycle perhaps, but for First Worlders, making that substantial a step backwards is probably anathema.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 29 Oct 2021, 13:53:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'w')e can still motor around all we'd like, and let the fools suffer the consequences of their transport decisions, right?


I'm wondering if that's a pleasant world to live in. Where all the fools suffer and you motor along happily.


Well, it was a conditional, the condition being folks refusing to recognize the value of alternative sources of fuels, to perpetuate their happy motoring through the horrors of an upcoming one or more new peak oils. You can imagine their terror, based on the peak oil dogma as it was written.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '
')Do you think you will motoring for long in such a scenario?


Sure. Said fools, upon being confronted with the consequences of their poor choices (and seeing those who made a superior choice continuing to happily motor along), will make better choices. Or choose to walk or bicycle perhaps, but for First Worlders, making that substantial a step backwards is probably anathema.


You forgot the emotional option where they decided you cheated somehow, they riot and burn down your garage and possibly your house as an act of revenge. Look at the 2020 riots, most of those attacked and burned out were neighbors of those doing the attacking and burning.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby Pops » Fri 29 Oct 2021, 14:52:14

You all forget the part where there is nowhere to motor too.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 29 Oct 2021, 15:05:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Adam', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '
')Do you think you will motoring for long in such a scenario?


Sure. Said fools, upon being confronted with the consequences of their poor choices (and seeing those who made a superior choice continuing to happily motor along), will make better choices. Or choose to walk or bicycle perhaps, but for First Worlders, making that substantial a step backwards is probably anathema.


You forgot the emotional option where they decided you cheated somehow, they riot and burn down your garage and possibly your house as an act of revenge. Look at the 2020 riots, most of those attacked and burned out were neighbors of those doing the attacking and burning.


Look at the last real energy crisis suffered by the US during the 1970's. The folks with the huge tail finned Cadillacs didn't loot and burn down the houses of Toyota Corolla or Honda Civic owners did they? Even when it was rationed, let alone just randomly expensive.

Today is different than back in my younger days, I'll grant you, but the if indeed civil unrest happens because of poor choices in fuel for transport, I've got the good ol' doomer stand bye of plenty of guns and ammo! And while I could smell tear gas during the Burn Loot and Murder unrest of past years, locally (and I don't know why) it was businesses that were primarily targeted.
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